The “economy” didn’t “grow” by 3.5%, GOVERNMENT SPENDING DID!!!!!.........
Slim Sady promised no more BUBBLE AND BUST, and all we have now is burst balloons and the rubble of unemployment. Is this the quiet before the massive thunderstorm?
“How is it that we can read all this stuff in the media but never think about or comment on what it means?”
Because it means nothing, more or less. On this forum we know all too well that “the media” is unreliable in terms of accurate reporting of political events, and most don’t pay anything more than passing attention, if that, to mainstream news sources. To think that this spurious and in-the-tank media will schizophrenically become imparters of valuable, timely *financial* information when reporting same is...naive.
That is not to say there are some, maybe even plenty of discussions in these parts of what’s going on in the economy...whatever “the economy” may mean to you. After all, “the economy” might mean employment to some; to others, corporate profits. To others, stock prices; to others, bond rates; to others, productivity figures; to others, capacity utilization. To others, freight loadings; to others, commodity prices. To others, existing home sales.
In the very short term, stock prices are very reactive to liquidity, which the Fed is monkeying around with with all the finesse of a 30 lb sledge hammer. In the longer term, stock prices react to corporate profits and earnings.
Without defining what “the economy” means, without defining what we believe the market reflects and several other factors, all we can really say of substance is that “the market went up today” (or “down” today), which is obvious, thus that particular snippet of information is of little or no value.
My own beliefs are: I see essentially no evidence of an economic recovery in any tangible or sustainable sense; IMO, the stock market is fiendishly overvalued; it has run arguably the greatest percentage in the shortest time in history, could give back 15% and STILL be a record-setting rally. I believe business is in general in a state of suspended everything, not knowing what kind of onerous taxes and mandates might be passed under this goon and his regime.
And still, all of my opinion is equally meaningless.
**Only price pays.**
EVERYONE is in hunker down mode, just trying to ride this storm out.
For someone, such as myself, who is not an economist, it is difficult to make sense of the market and the economy. I know that if the government prints more money the buying power of the dollar goes down. I know that the government is spending money that it does not have, and that it is borrowing from future generations. I do not understand why this economy is not tanking. We should be experiencing a deep depression, but we do not seem to be. I do not understand why we are not in a steep inflation. We are certainly in a jobless “recovery.” Is our economy all smoke and mirrors?
“Consumers still seem skittish despite news the Economy grew by 3.5% in the 3rd quarter”
That’s because ‘news the economy grew by 3.5% in the 3rd quarter’ doesn’t put dollars in your bank account.
I posted this back in June:
I think things may be sustainable this summer but the coming winter is going to be rough I suspect. I fully expected temporary summer jobs to stall the unemployment trend but that will end before Christmas and we’ll back on track for meltdown. and, like you said, who knows what’s really going on with housing especially considering the millions of newly unemployed Americans created this spring? I see a stock market doing “OK” but I see it being manipulated and it becomes more and more evident that the stock market is pretty well disconnected from Main Street, USA realities.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2267819/posts
Frankly as a small business owner/manager, we’re down almost 45% from same time last year. This is a small telecom, so it shouldln’t be affected as much as tangible products, but it is. People are holding onto their money. This time last year people would put on average $50-$100 on their prepay accounts. Now they’re putting on average $30-$40. And this is for many to talk to their locked up children. Even our foreign customers aren’t spending. I certainly hope we’ve bottomed out, but we’ll see.