Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Official Press Release

Solar Cycle 24.com ^ | 25 April 2007 | Solar Cycle 24.com

[Excellence]

Today the official prediction for solar cycle 24 has been released and is predicted to start later than expected. Scientists are also split as to weather the cycle will be a strong one or a weak one. Read the links below for more information.

Official Press Release http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html

Detailed information and findings http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html

[Excellence]

There is quite a variation between high and low numbers, but what is important to me is when Solar Cycle 24 actually begins. It has not yet; in fact, sun spot 953 is just rolling into view.

[redgolum]

What is the significance out of curiosity?

[rockprof]

High sunspot activity leads to increased coronal mass ejections which can fry satellites, disrupt radio communications, and even cause power outages.

[rockprof]

High sunspot activity leads to increased coronal mass ejections which can fry satellites, disrupt radio communications, and even cause power outages.

[redgolum]

Thanks.

Area we heading into or out of the solar maximum for sun spots?

[rockprof]

We’re in a minumum and will be moving into a maximum over the next few years.

[Excellence]

The later it starts, the more likely the cycle will be weak, leading to less solar magnetic flares and interference with cosmic rays. Cosmic rays, according to a newer theory, bind hydrogen and oxygen molecules together in the lower atmosphere, creating aerosols (clouds) which block sunlight and lead to global cooling.

[Excellence]

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.htmlApril 25, 2007 Solar Cycle 24 Prediction presentations at the SEC Space Weather Workshop Solar Cycle 24 Consensus Prediction (PPT) – Douglas Biesecker, NOAA, SEC Societal and Economic Aspects of Space Weather (PPT) – Daniel Baker, LASP/University of Colorado Meeting the Challenges of Nature: The Impact of Space Weather on Marine Positioning Services (PPT) – Richard Barker, Fugro Chance Inc Why NASA Needs a Prediction of the Solar Cycle (PPT) – W. Dean Pesnell, NASA GSFC The Sun's Role in Past, Current and Future Climate Change – Caspar Ammann, NCAR CGD & HAO

Interesting that there is no link for Caspar Amman's thoughts on The Sun's Role in Climate Change.

Ammann and Eugene Wahl of Alfred University have analyzed the Mann-Bradley-Hughes (MBH) climate field reconstruction and reproduced the MBH results using their own computer code. They found the MBH method is robust even when numerous modifications are employed. Their results appear in two new research papers submitted for review to the journals Geophysical Research Letters and Climatic Change. The authors invite researchers and others to use the code for their own evaluation of the method. Ammann and Wahl’s findings contradict an assertion by McIntyre and McKitrick that 15th century global temperatures rival those of the late 20th century and therefore make the hockey stick-shaped graph inaccurate. They also dispute McIntyre and McKitrick’s alleged identification of a fundamental flaw that would significantly bias the MBH climate reconstruction toward a hockey stick shape. Ammann and Wahl conclude that the highly publicized criticisms of the MBH graph are unfounded. They first presented their detailed analyses at the American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting in San Francisco last December and at the American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting in Denver this year.

And he is a believer in the hockey stick theory.

[Steve Van Doorn]

Thought you might want to see this

[philly-d-kidder]

There is just so much information that contradicts the Gloom and Doom Crowd of Global warming.. Remember the UN study 4 -5 years ago where the NYT retracted part of the story the next day when they forgot to mention the UN temperature tracking numbers were suspect because of the methods of Measuring Air Temperature and Water Temperature at the surface versuses 100 Meters to see true impact for their studies calculations! They Found the Temperatures Varied by 30-40% when they used the correct methodology.

[justa-hairyape]

The major significance with this new predictive report is that NASA has changed from [Cycle 24 will be stronger then Cycle 23] to [Cycle 24 will probably not be stronger then Cycle 23]. That fact combined with a later start means that solar induced warming should not be occurring again until late 2008 at the earliest.

[ancient_geezer]

Thanks for the ping.

Of interest, the range of the current prediction for Cycle 24 affirms the lower range of longterm estimate, in fact points at an even lower level than that earlier estimate:

 

 

 

NASA - Long Range Solar Forecast

 

The ultimate test will be the long term prediction covering cycle 25, which holds the greatest potential for affirming or disproving the connection solar cycle connection with global climate.

 

The Little Ice Age was a associated with a lack of observed sunspots though several cycles, i.e. the Maunder Minimum.

[Steve Van Doorn]

Oh, cycle 24 isn’t the one I was thinking of it is cycle 25 that we need to really follow. I see.

[Welkin]

Interesting discussion, I am fascinated if NASA is changing their tune.
On December 16 I drew attention to;
Contrasting forecasts for Solar Cycle 24
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=73

then a couple of months later I posted
Has anybody seen any recent sunspots ?
February 23rd, 2007
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=89

Then on March 27 I posted David Archibald’s new paper predicting global cooling ahead;
The Past and Future of Climate
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=102

All the best to Free Republic.
Warwick Hughes