Posted on 02/16/2006 9:02:29 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
Is war with Iran inevitable? If it is, I fear it could easily escalate to engulf the entire world. There are many paths that a conflict with Iran could take, and some of them are very unappealing. But what is to be done? Nothing? Doing nothing has consequences too.
The following worst-case scenario is in the form of newspaper headlines:
West imposes economic sanctions on Iran
Iran ignores sanctions, continues drive for nukes
Funding for anti-regime movements increased
Internal opposition to Iran regime fails
Iran successfully tests nuke, claims to have over 10 more
Israel and Iran in tense nuclear standoff
U.S. and allies launch massive conventional airstrike on Iran
Iran calls Islamic world to arms against West
Israel shoots down several Iranian missiles, payloads uncertain
Tel Aviv, three other Israeli cities destroyed in second Iran nuclear strike
Israel and U.S. retaliate: Millions dead in Iran
Syria, Pakistan declare war against Israel and U.S.
Syria, Egypt invade Israel
India enters war, exchanges nukes with Pakistan
North Korea invades South Korea under cover of Middle East War
U.S. nukes invading North Korean army
Draft reinstated to bolster stretched U.S. forces
China invades Taiwan, warns U.S. not to interfere
Russia joins war on the side of Iran
U.S., Europe in massive nuclear exchange with Russia and China
Over 1 billion dead as world staggers from global war
Fallout, starvation kills 3 billion more people
Before I accept any of these scenarios I need to know what Russia benefits from by jumping into the fray on Iran's side
Good point. What does Russia gain? They would be better off sitting the war out, or even joining on the side of the U.S. and Israel. The Cold War has proved that the Russians are not suicidal.
I need to know why China would decide to nuke a Western nation.
China may use our preoccupation with a large Middle East war to grab Taiwan. If we don't get involved and let Taiwan fight for themselves, China has little reason to nuke us. But if we do get involved militarily in Taiwan's defense, then we risk a nuclear exchange with China.
North [Korea] invades in vain. North Korea may think they have good chance of winning with the U.S. preoccupied elsewhere. And who knows how crazy Kim Jong Il might be. Is South Korea adequately prepared for a North Korean invasion? Or will additional force from the U.S. and possibly Japan be required?
I can see Iran nuking Israel if the U.S. and Israel don't act soon to set Iran back another ten years
Agreed. But what if Iran already has nukes, and Israel's missile defense doesn't intercept every single nuke?
Israel would certainly retaliate against Iran. But with Israel now actively involved in the war, I can easily see Syria and other Muslim nations joining the fray. Would Pakistan become involved? I don't know. It would be better if Israel does not become involved and adopts a purely defensive posture. And let's hope and pray that their missile defense is 100% effective against an Iranian nuclear attack.
I don't understand why Syria and Egypt would suddenly rush into a nuclear-smoldering Israel
Syria and Egypt may declare war against Israel if Iran does so first. Their attacks may be limited to air and missile strikes if Iranian nukes get through. But, if Israel is not nuclear-smoldering, then they may attempt invasion. The question here is, how much risk will the Muslim world take to rid themselves of Israel once and for all?
I have learned a valuable lesson about Islam; they are essentially cowards who will recruit other men to go die for them, while their leaders themselves hide like quivering rats in filthy caves. The leaders and mullahs of Iran do not want to get fried for their faith, they want other muslims to do it for them.
That would suggest that giving a nuke to terrorists for detonation in Israel is their preferred option. But what if the U.S. attacks first to remove any nuclear capability? It's a catch-22. If we do nothing, terrorists detonate a nuke in Israel. If we attack Iran, whatever nuclear weapons they may already have will be on a use-it-or-lose-it trajectory towards Israel. Again, the question is, are the mullahs really that crazy?
The hand of God will decide the fate of the world; so the most important thing for all of us to do is PRAY, PRAY, PRAY, PRAY, PRAY.
I'm in total agreement with you there.
Would Israel really attack Mecca and Medina? Doing so would preclude any Muslim nation from sitting the war out.
Chilling but very plausible.
UN imposes economic sanctions on Iran. Most Muslim countries along with Russia, China and North Korea vote against.
Above countries sign Trans-Asian Non aggression pact.
Iran ignores sanctions, continues push for nuclear weapons with aid from Trans-Asian Axis: North Korea, Russia and China
Iran withdraws from NPT
Internal opposition to Iran regime is crushed
Iran successfully tests several underground nuclear devices.
Iran, Syria and several other countries form a super islamic state which shuts off all oil exports to Western countries.
Saudia Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and several other Middle Eastern countries are overthrown by hard line islamic clerics. States are absorbed.
Iran states any interference will result in nuclear war.
Israel and Iran and US in nuclear standoff
Trans-Asian Axis calls for diplomatic solution to crisis.
No solution is found. Axis secretly begins to arm and move troops.
Israel launches a massive preemptive strike against Middle Eastern targets with Nato/US support. Strike is conventional.
Iran and Syria call for Islamic world wide revolution. There are terrorist attacks world
wide on a scale never seen before. Numerous European governments are overthrown.
martial law is declared all across Europe and in the US.
Al-Qauda launches terrorist attacks using small scale dirty, chemical and biological weapons. Chaos is global.
Thousands are dead in every western country.
By now, War has engulfed the Middle East.
Syria, Iran, and Pakistan along with North Korea have declared war against Israel, U.S. and Nato Allies
Israel intercepts several dozen Iranian warheads of Russian and North Korean design.
Tel Aviv is obliterated in an Iran nuclear strike.
Not wishing to use Nuclear Weapons, Israel and U.S. retaliate with conventional arms. Thousands are dead across the Middle East.
Middle Eastern Alliance invades Israel and Iraq then pushes north into Europe
India enters war on the side of Nato and begins invasion of Pakistan.
North Korea invades South Korea under cover of Middle East War. Atomic and nuclear weapons are used.
North Korea destroys South Korea and then invades Japan.
China begins massive surprise invasion of Eastern Europe.
In desperation, U.S. launches thermonuclear weapons against targets in North Korea and mainland China
Draft reinstated to bolster stretched U.S. forces.
Russia joins war on the side of Nato and U.S.
U.S., Russia and Europe in massive nuclear exchange with China and Middle Eastern Alliance.
Over 2 billion dead.
Civilization has ended.
As far as NK goes I do not believe they have a support structure to fuel or feed an invasion to the south. Not saying they wouldn't lob a nuke down there if they have one.
Rise early and strike them first; destroying their command and control structire; and use EMPs to knock out their electrical power. It would go a long way to prevent further carnage. Of course the very best thing, if it were possible would be to terminate Ahminadjab and the mullahs, leaving the rest of Persia largely unscathed. It is a sorry thing that the Persia of Cyrus The Great is now ruled by hallucinating Mahdi wannabes
Shock and Awe: In Daring Raid; Israeli Forces Decapitate Iranian Military, Raids Ongoing
Reports of IAF Nuclear Counterstrike Unconfirmed
I don't doubt the ability of Israel to retaliate. But doing so would widen the war to the entire Middle East. How can the U.S. thwart the mullahs' nuclear ambitions, and at the same time prevent the need for Israel to get involved?
The best option at this point would be massive and overwhelming air strikes against Iran, while doing EVERYTHING possible to make sure that no Iranian missiles make their way to Israel.
I will revise the time-line.
At that point, it would be "The Samson Plan". Egypt would be under water, Damascus will be a ruinous heap. If it got that far, why would tiny Israel worry about what the Islamic world thinks?
It is just not in Russia's interest to militarily side with Iran.
Would China really be crazy enough to invade Europe?
Would the U.S. launch a nuclear first strike against China?
Russia joins war on the side of Nato and U.S.
U.S., Russia and Europe in massive nuclear exchange with China and Middle Eastern Alliance.Over 2 billion dead.
Civilization has ended.
Well, at least Russia was on our side.
That is my absolute worst case scenario. I don't actually think it will be that horrific. As for China, worst case, I think they'd actually go for it if we (NATO/US) were stretched too thin and involved elsewhere. And especially if we were suffering under nuclear terrorism. As for Russia, They are the unknown variable. I think they'd side with us rather than go down in a blaze of glory. Like I said, that is absolute worst case. I think in reality Russia and China would sit it out on the sidelines and just see who wins.
we wouldn't nuke the "invading North Koreans"....
My guess is that Pakistan would stay out of it as best they could. Sure as hell they wouldn't side with Syria.
India is a wildcard however. But as long as Pakistan stays out of it, they will as well.
Bashir isn't stupid. Sure he might take Israel on by himself, but he has to know that we would be right there (we have a rather sizeable army to his south and east).
It's implausible. there is a better than even chance that the ME let's Iran fall on it's sword when push comes to shove.
Pakistan would not side with Syria against Israel? Both are Muslim nations. Is there bad blood between Pakistan and Syria?
No options are risk free, but it increasingly appears that removing Iran's nuclear threat sooner rather than later is the best one.
And we should take great care to prevent the war from widening to engulf the entire Middle East.
Israel shoots down several Iranian missiles, payloads uncertainThe second line should read "Israel uses a substantial part of its 400-weapon nuclear arsenal to wipe Iran off of the map". This should also be the last line.
Tel Aviv, three other Israeli cities destroyed in second Iran nuclear strike
Absolutely love the series Jeff. Very good stuff. Very scary stuff.
Aggain, thanks!
I will certainly do that! and BTTT
We have been expecting global thermonuclear war for the past half century. The mechanism is likely to be mistake and misestimated intention.
Now tell me why Pakistan would try to help Syria in anything?
They haven't before. They won't start now.
Look beyond the religion thing. Sure Religion drives a lot of stuff over there, but so does Tribal and ethnic stuff as well.
Too many "what ifs" here. Had Iran been in possession of the 'bomb' all along with the intent to use it, it would have already been used by now. Muslims are the toughest talking cowards on earth. The bigger the bluster, the smaller the threat, in my mind. True power simply asserts itself and has no need to stand sideways and hunch up its back like a cat trying to look bigger than it really is.
Our only big concern in a war with Iran is the Strait of Hormuz. If we can eliminate or neutralize that problem Iran becomes a big pile of dog dung with its only weapon being its stench. In fact, that all Iran is anyway, Hormuz or no Hormuz. I'm sick of all these maniac muslims threatening the West with their bellicose, foul mouthed mobs hurling insults and firebombs. The time has come for the West to let the dogs of war loose on these 7th century anthropological specimens and settle it once and for all. The West's armies can call it "The Final Crusade".
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