Netanyahu's leadership threatened as his strongest rival is asked to form a government by Israel's president

Israeli president Isaac Herzog has asked opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government in a blow to Benjamin Netanyahu.

On Friday, the centrist Yashar party leader said Israel was 'in a true, tangible, and dangerous state of emergency'.

He claimed Mr Netanyahu's government 'threatens, at the most fundamental level, the very existence of Israeli democracy'.

Mr Herzog's decision has come following a deadlocked election that left neither man with a clear path to power.

Mr Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, is fighting to stay in office after his religious-nationalist coalition lost its majority in an October 27 election but still emerged as the largest bloc in parliament.

Mr Eisenkot, a former military chief, has declined to join forces with Arab parties, whose support would give him a majority of seats in parliament.

But Arab leaders, incensed by what they view as the racist policies of Mr Netanyahu and his far-Right allies, still nominated Mr Eisenkot to try to form a government first – giving him the most endorsements.

Weeks of protracted negotiations are expected to follow Mr Eisenkot's nomination. He has 28 days to try to forge a government, with a possible 14-day extension.

His potential pathways to power include trying to form a minority government with Arab party votes on key issues; forming a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties that he and his allies have shunned in the past; or forging a unity government with Mr Netanyahu.

Analysts say that all three options are unlikely to take shape. If Mr Eisenkot fails, another candidate can try to form a government and if that candidate fails, parliament can nominate another.

There is a deadline for the process of around 100 days. If no one succeeds, another election is held.

Eisenkot’s four-party Jewish opposition alliance — Yashar (21 seats), Together (12 seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (7 seats), and The Democrats (8 seats) — holds 48 seats. Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc holds 53 seats. Arab parties (Ra’am and the Joint List) won a record 19 seats. Neither side has the 61 seats it needs on its own.

Making matters more difficult, Eisenkot has tried to thread the needle between mobilizing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s governance and appearing to be somewhat traitorous as wars with Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and occasionally the Houthis rage. His solution was to publicly prioritize a “national emergency government” built on the Jewish opposition parties. This is where the math gets stickier: He has laid out four principles any partner must accept:

* recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state;

* acceptance of the values of the Declaration of Independence;

* mandatory service for all citizens to strengthen the IDF;

and

* recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be dismantled.

The immediate deal-breaker is that the Arab parties are Islamist, anti-Zionist, and don’t recognize the right of Israel to exist. I haven’t seen this stated, but I’d be willing to bet they wouldn’t agree with calling Hamas a terrorist organization.

Eisenkot has repeatedly declined to bring the Arab parties into a governing coalition. In fact, he has stated he does not believe current Arab parties meet his conditions, particularly the Hamas one, and has emphasized forming a Zionist government.

Netanyahu has warned that any arrangement relying on Arab parties would endanger Israel. Yisrael Beiteinu, a secular Russian Jewish party that voted to give Eisenkot first crack at forming a government, has long opposed dependence on Arab votes. A move to include those parties would not only violate Eisenkot’s stated “red line,” but it would also create internal tension within his coalition.

His other main problem is that he has essentially put collaborating with Shas and United Torah, the ultra-Orthodox parties, on the issue of draft exemptions for yeshiva students. Eisenkot has insisted on ending broad draft exemptions for Haredi yeshiva students as a non-negotiable principle. Either Eisenkot has to back down from this “red line” or the ultra-Orthodox have to vote to basically destroy their communities.

Writing off 13 ultra-Orthodox seats and 19 Islamist seats to stay true to his stated principles means Eisenkot has to find 61 votes from the remaining 88 when Netanyahu’s Likud party owns 27 of them. Because Eisenkot has ruled out any deal with Netanyahu, the math becomes very difficult for the anti-Netanyahu parties.

Under Israel’s constitution, Eisenkot has 28 days to assemble a ruling coalition. If he fails, which seems to be likely, another member of the Knesset must be offered the chance. That would be Netanyahu. If he fails, the president calls for a new election.

In the meantime, Bibi Netanyahu remains prime minister.

Haven’t we see this movie before?

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