Do the polls matter. No. If only 5% of base of the party bolt, which I think they will, Rino Rudy loses.
Of course polls matter --- polls sample Independents as well and they usually decide the winner or outcome.
FYI -- the BASE always votes. It's the one issue malcontents and fringers who try to blackmail the party and stay home or vote third party.
Baloney. Rudy could lose 10% of the "base" and still beat Hillary. Will he get out of the primaries? Probably not BUT Hillary will be lucky to get the nod herself. 2008 is going to be either the realization that the GOP cannot just rely on "base" turnout to win or it will be doomed to go back to another 30 years in the wilderness. Personally I don't believe the eventual GOP nominee is even on the radar yet.
FGS, they "bolt" every single election; the GOP doesn't even factor them in anymore.