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I wonder how that will fare in a hurricane... 🤔

"Me too."

Ran it.

Starbase (Boca Chica, Cameron County near Brownsville) is a low-elevation Gulf Coast site vulnerable mainly to storm surge, flooding, and wind.

50-Year Timeline (≈1976–2026)

Tropical systems affect the area roughly every 5 years; direct hurricanes ~every 19 years; major (Cat 3+) ~every 50 years.

● 1980 Allen (Cat 3, near Port Mansfield): Strong winds/gusts, surge, rain; moderate local damage.
● 1983 Barry (Cat 1, south of Brownsville): Minor damage, evacuations.
● 1988 Gilbert (Mexico landfall): Gusts to ~83 mph, surge on South Padre.
● 1999 Bret (Cat 3, Padre Island): Limited southern effects.
● 2008 Dolly (Cat 1–2, near South Padre): Direct hit—100 mph winds, heavy rain/flooding, power outages, ~$1B+ regional damage.
● 2008 Ike: Beach erosion on South Padre.
● 2010 Alex (Mexico): Heavy rain, river flooding, some tornadoes.
● 2020 Hanna (Cat 1, near Port Mansfield): Regional flooding/outages; Starbase mostly weathered with delays.
● 2021 Nicholas (landfall farther north): Rain/winds at site; limited disruption.

Other tropical storms caused rain/flooding. Pre-1976: Beulah (1967) and 1933 storm caused major surge destruction.

Estimated Damages to the Starbase Installation and Potential Costs to SpaceX

Low elevation makes surge the primary threat to buildings, launch tower, tank farms, and electronics.

● TS / Cat 1 (e.g., Hanna): Minor flooding/wind issues, days–weeks downtime. Low-millions repairs + delay costs.
● Cat 2: Extensive flooding/envelope damage; weeks–months recovery. Tens of millions.
● Cat 3+: Structural damage, major inundation/corrosion; 6–18+ months. Hundreds of millions.
● Cat 4–5: Near-total destruction possible; multi-year or site reevaluation. High hundreds of millions to billions.

SpaceX invests heavily (multi-billion site cumulative; individual large buildings hundreds of millions) and prepares assets, but a strong surge event remains high-consequence. No major direct hit has tested the full modern facility.