Just thinking out loud here and this is a bit wild and dicey, but it's the way Trump thinks.I think Trump may be negotiating with the IRGC, and others, to give them assurances that if they join the plan, they will not be cut out. In a way, he and Bibi are telling everyone–the IRGC, the protesters, and the other factions–that Iran can be a very wealthy country if the goal isn't terrorism. To them, Trump says, "Join the economic world and build a real country. We will help you. But to make sure you do as you promise, we are going to hold Kharg Island as collateral until the plan starts working."
This is essentially what Trump did in Venezuela–and that template is instructive.
What happened there wasn't regime change in the traditional sense. It was an economic off-ramp with teeth. Maduro's inner circle–including military and intelligence figures who had been designated terrorists and narco-traffickers–were quietly told that personal immunity, asset protection, and a functional economy were available if they stopped blocking the transition. The oil sector was the lever. PDVSA's access to international markets was the reward for compliance.
It was coldly transactional. But it was also coherent in a way that Iraq and Libya never were, because it didn't require the bad actors to become good people–just to become paid people with a stake in stability rather than chaos. Iran is a far more complex society with far more capable institutions. But the core logic transplants directly.
t was coldly transactional. But it was also coherent in a way that Iraq and Libya never were, because it didn’t require the bad actors to become good people–just to become paid people with a stake in stability rather than chaos. Iran is a far more complex society with far more capable institutions. But the core logic transplants directly.