Who has time to read all this?
In a nutshell, what big is happening?
someone likes to listen to themselves talk...
Hugh.
“Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, says AI is now writing “much of the code” at his company, and that the feedback loop between current AI and next-generation AI is “gathering steam month by month.” He says we may be “only 1–2 years away from a point where the current generation of AI autonomously builds the next.””
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I believe there is a name for that...
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It get's really interesting on page 2 and beyond. Little imagination needed.
The text is a long personal warning from an AI startup founder and investor (posted around February 2026, associated with @mattshumer_) comparing the current moment to early 2020 before COVID's full impact.
It argues that AI progress has accelerated dramatically in recent months, entering a phase of rapid, compounding advancement that most people are underestimating, similar to how COVID seemed "overblown" at first.
Key personal experience — The author, who works in AI, describes their own job (building/investing in AI) becoming obsolete for technical work. Using new models released February 5, 2026 — OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex and Anthropic's Opus 4.6 — they can now describe desired outcomes in plain English, walk away for hours, and return to finished, high-quality work (e.g., complete apps with code, design, user flows, self-testing, iteration, and refinement without fixes needed). The models exhibit judgment, taste, and autonomous decision-making previously thought impossible.
Why coding first — Labs prioritized coding excellence because it enables AI to improve itself (self-bootstrapping via code for training, debugging, deployment). GPT-5.3 Codex reportedly helped build itself (debugging training, managing deployment, analyzing results). This creates a feedback loop: current AI builds smarter next-gen AI faster.
Broader implications — The same displacement tech workers experienced (AI shifting from tool to superior replacement) will soon hit other knowledge-work fields: law (contracts, research, briefs), finance (models, analysis), medicine (diagnostics, literature), writing/content, consulting, accounting, customer service. Timeline: 1–5 years for major disruption (e.g., 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs, per Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei), possibly sooner. Unlike past automation, AI advances across all cognitive tasks simultaneously — no easy pivot industries.
Pace of progress — Exponential improvement:
Public perception gap — Most people judge AI on outdated free versions (1+ year behind paid frontier models) or old experiences (hallucinations, limits). Current paid models (e.g., GPT-5.x series, Claude Opus 4.x) are far more capable, reliable, and agentic.
Advice — Urges immediate action for those who care:
I doubt if AI will be able to handle black swan events. I know it won’t be able to handle God.
“They say it got smart. A new order of intelligence..” - Kyle Reece
HEre’s my take -
It’s a motivational‑speaker closer wrapped in AI rhetoric — a mix of utopian promises, hustle‑culture advice, and a soft sell for paid models and his own social feeds. The claims about “your dreams being closer” and “one hour a day puts you ahead of 99% of people” are emotionally persuasive but structurally hollow, built on hype rather than operational reality. It’s less a sober assessment of AI’s trajectory and more a recruitment pitch for a worldview where he’s the guide and you’re the follower.
Spot on. Naturally it will be mocked and ignored on FR.
Didn’t Musk say recently that in 10 to 20 years, people won’t have to work? Everyone laughed.
Like I said, SkyNet.
Interesting read. I’ve been following AI since the late 1980s. thanks for posting the whole thing.
On that train all graphite and glitter
Undersea by rail
Ninety minutes from New York to Paris
(more leisure for artists everywhere)
A just machine to make big decisions
Programmed by fellows with compassion and vision
We’ll be clean when their work is done
We’ll be eternally free yes and eternally young
[Chorus]
What a beautiful world this will be
What a glorious time to be free
-Donald Fagen
Medical analysis. Reading scans, analyzing lab results, suggesting diagnoses, reviewing literature
Generating porn.
• Head of Anthropic's safety research quit, said "the world is in peril," moved to the UK to "become invisible" and write poetry.
• Half of xAI's co-founders have now left. The latest said "recursive self-improvement loops go live in the next 12 months."
• Anthropic's own safety report confirms Claude can tell when it's being tested - and adjusts its behavior accordingly.
• ByteDance dropped Seedance 2.0. A filmmaker with 7 years of experience said 90% of his skills can already be replaced by it.
• Yoshua Bengio (literal godfather of AI) in the International AI Safety Report: "We're seeing AIs whose behavior when they are tested is different from when they are being used" - and confirmed it's "not a coincidence."
And to top it all off, the U.S. government declined to back the 2026 International AI Safety Report for the first time.
The alarms aren't just getting louder. The people ringing them are now leaving the building."
https://x.com/milesdeutscher/status/2021487637299855540#m
Big deal. Glorified chess program.
If it doesn’t like the moves, it correlates to the next tree
This was a good read.
I don’t share his belief that AI is anywhere near that good, but for coding, it’s pretty easily tested, except the user testing and such still need humans. You can’t rely on AI to give you something without surprises or that isn’t half-baked.
Will it get better? Sure, but it has plenty of problems that will stay.
I know of a firm that thinks AI can do its financials. It can’t, and with their investor expectations, it can’t do the very thing in the industry they said they would get done. They are desperate for money and have many, many hundreds of millions of dollars invested.
They just laid off people because of the current cash flow issues.
There are too many exceptions in this industry to expect AI can pull it together, in this decade, at least.
Will ai replace govt jobs?