Sorry, but turnout is irrelevant when you have ballot harvesting.
In the midterms, we watched the in-person vote follow the “likely voter” polls indicating a red wave. But the mail-in ballots, harvested by various groups, swung the results to reflect more of the “registered voter” polls that took place.
Yep, many people may choose not to vote, but their ballots are nevertheless highly determined to vote for democrats.
“Turnout” does not mean travel to the polling place.
Turnout is the ratio of votes to registered voters. Doesn’t matter how the vote is cast.
Definition issue. Ballot harvesting IS turnout.