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Damn, things are really stewing in West Taiwan. I stand by my prediction on the end of the CCP. The end of Xi Jinpooh as the #1 Poohba may be a LOT closer.
I am now of the opinion that there is a slow motion coup underway within the upper ranks of the CCP. There seems to be a move to quietly ease Xi out of the limelight and out of power. There several underlying assumptions to this. The first, and biggest, is that Xi is not currently capable of stopping this. The second is that those acting to move Xi out of power have disagreements as to who should replace him. This shouldn't surprise anyone as Xi has been relentless in removing potential challengers.
I would look for some of Xi's titles/powers/offices to go to others leaving Xi as a figurehead for some period of time. This would last until either those ousting Xi come to an agreement as to who replaces whom and when. Implicit in this would be reassurance for Xi's supporters that there won't be any retribution against them.
OK, ok, I can hear you from here, "What brought this on so suddenly?" Consider the following.
Item One:
On 3 August, the State Council approved a list of twenty measures aimed at boosting consumer spending and service industries. Many of these service industries are those repressed by Xi because supporting them would weaken the ability of the CCP to maintain control of Chinese society.
Item Two:
Since the Third Plenary Session (TPS), Xi's public appearances have become much fewer and briefer. More telling is the near elimination mention of Xi and support for his thoughts or policies in official reports.
This is a REALLY big deal.
Item Three:
Almost as troubling is the situation of Admiral Dong Jun, the new Defense Minister. At the TPS, Dong was NOT made a member of the Central Military Commission. This is not unprecedented but is indicative of a growing distrust between the military and Xi. There is fear of a great cleansing within the ranks of the Chinese military and not just among the officers.
The CCP has always said, "The Party Controls the Gun." The problem is that the military is not always certain who legitimately represents the Party. Neither Xi nor any potential coup members mentioned above can command the unquestioned loyalty of the military.
Item Three:
One of the Chinese aircraft carriers has burned and is likely permanently out of service. Before you break out the champagne, this is the former Kiev-class carrier, Minsk sold to China to be a museum ship in Jiangsu. It is NOT one of the three PLAN small carriers.
What is it about Russian aircraft carriers burning. The Russian carrier Admiral Kumbustov is still out of service.
Remember, if I'm right, you heard it here first. Feel free to erect statues and name National Beaches after me.
If I'm wrong, "How about them Yankees?"
WWG1WGA
Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)