Posted on 11/27/2022 6:25:02 AM PST by george76
Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere at the end of November represents an important parameter for the early winter forecast. This year snow extent is running much higher than average and according to existing global estimates, it is now beyond the highest ever observed so far. Winter forecast, especially in its early phase and in Europe, might be strongly influenced by such a large snow extent, although many other factors need attention.
SNOW EXTENT IN NOVEMBER 2022..
Northern Hemisphere snow extent is currently indeed very high, now at about 41 million square kilometers..
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Looking at the below Rutgers Daily Snow Extent map, it is clearly noticeable how Russia is completely covered in snow now. Snow is also seen overwhelming all of Canada, and Alaska, as well as a good portion of the Lower 48. This is an important parameter for the early winter forecast.
You could probably forecast a colder-than-normal winter based on Autumnal Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent alone. It’s the largest snow extent in decades. Having so much snow on the ground means any arctic outbreak is going to be a little bit colder.
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In North America snow extent for the end of November is more south than normal, especially in the North West and North East sectors of the U.S: Small and scattered negative anomalies are less significant in the picture, mostly affecting central Mongolia, North East China, and the central U.S.
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According to the Finnish Meteorological Institute, also the total snow mass for the Northern Hemisphere is tracking comfortably above the 1982-2012 average. This result is based on the current Northern Hemisphere snow-water equivalent relative to the long-term mean and variability.
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Snow extent grew pretty fast in the last 30 days, as it should generally be in this period of course, but 2022 is setting a clearly very favorable season for snow on the ground. In the video below you can see how fast the snow extent increased in the last 4 weeks.
By the way, as a curiosity, the temperature is always colder on the ground in winter and at night in calm conditions, that is without or with the very weak wind. That’s because the Earth warms up and cools off much faster than the atmosphere does. More, colder air is denser, therefore the air near the ground is colder at night than the higher air. That’s why for instance your thermometer says +1 or +2 degrees Celsius, but you might see frost on the ground.
Extensive snow extent early in the season is an indicator of persistent cold as we head into winter proper, mainly due to albedo and emissivity feedback.
Albedo is defined as the fraction of light that is reflected by a body or surface. On average, the Earth reflects about 30 percent of the sun’s radiation, but when fresh snow covers the ground that value nearly triples and it is close to 1.0. In fact, snow has the greatest albedo on Earth, from less than 0.60 for wet and melting snow to greater than 0.85 for fresh snow.
The albedo of fresh snow could be as higher as 0.95, which means it reflects back to space 95 percent of the sun’s radiation, keeping the ground and air much cooler.
It represents an important parameter in climatology since recent albedo decreases in the Arctic have increased heat absorption at the surface leading to the so-called Arctic Amplification. Practically, Arctic lands and sea are warming faster than other environments on Earth due to the positive feedback induced by the darker surface of the land and sea in summer, where there is no snow or ice on the ground or sea ice melted.
You know what this means: Ice fishing in December. Gotta go get some waxies.
So mygift to my nephew for an orange tree for Connecticut would be a bad idea? Darn it, thought it would be a great gift...
The GW cause the oceans to evaporate more, putting more moisture in the air, which gets transported north by the winds, where it then turns into snow.’
Right Buffalo??
Oh NO!!!
I use to watch for the woolly Caterpillar when a kid but I'm not in an area now that has much of them.
A whole lot more acorns in my yard this October. God’s creation knows how to take care of itself
“… The albedo of fresh snow could be as higher as 0.95, which means it reflects back to space 95 percent of the sun’s radiation, keeping the ground and air much cooler…”
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Perhaps our warmongering propagandists can point out that this was all triggered by the Russians recently camouflaging some of their armored vehicles by painting them white. Damned Russians! /sarc
To myself as well.
He’s the best. :)
WeatherBell Winter Forecast 2022-23 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyKrd9CNyIA Sep 24, 2022
For comparison (I hope I do not waste time, and thus links are taken from further along in the video.
https://youtu.be/kO5cw0Sk850?t=351 Oct 12, 2022
https://youtu.be/nq56ujue17Y?t=67 Oct 30, 2022
https://youtu.be/RMmlVx11JpQ?t=380 Nov 27, 2022
https://youtu.be/4GQk5Cu9dWY?t=52 2 months ago
https://youtu.be/SX-E6JfwcAE?t=251 2 months ago
https://youtu.be/g5xUilN6V7g?t=276 Sep 12, 2022
No doubt, it’s going to be cold! :)
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