Iranian-backed Iraqi actors’ current campaign to remove US forces draws remarkable similarities to the 2021 campaign to force a US troop withdrawal from Iraq. Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are pursuing political and military means to force US forces to withdraw from Iraq. The Iraqi Parliamentary Security and Defense Committee presented a draft resolution to expel US forces, arguing that the United States’ recent strikes in Iraq were a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.[10] CTP-ISW previously assessed that the current attack campaign is meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel while also eroding American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria.[11] Iraq's Council of Representatives similarly passed a non-binding resolution in January 2020 to remove US forces from Iraq following IRGC-QF Commander Qasem Soleimani’s death.[12] Iranian-backed Iraqi proxies intensified their attack campaign on US forces in frequency and expanded geographically in from 2020 to 2021 to pressure former Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi to force US forces to withdraw from Iraq.[13] Kadhimi and US President Joe Biden signed an agreement in July 2021 agreeing to a troop drawdown that allowed for 2,500 military advisors to remain in Iraq to support Iraqi Security Forces under Operation Inherent Resolve.[14]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-8-2023
Kataib Hezbollah (KH) stated that it plans to increase the scope of its attacks on US targets in Iraq on December 9.[47] KH spokesperson Abu Ali al Askari congratulated the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, of which KH is a member, on its attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 and warned that the attack marked a new standard for attacks against the United States in Iraq.[48] Askari claimed that the US Embassy in Baghdad was a base for planning military and security operations disguised as a diplomatic mission.[49] By referring to the US embassy as a military target, KH is setting informational conditions to justify attacks on the embassy. Askari’s statement comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated significantly its attack campaign, conducting around 10 attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Syria on December 8. Askari also said that KH will consider Iraqi security forces that cooperate with the United States as accomplices to US “crimes,” suggesting that KH may attack these Iraqi security personnel as well. Unidentified militants conducted a rocket attack on the Iraqi National Security Service (NSS) headquarters on December 8, damaging the facility, according to the NSS spokesperson.[50]
Askari claimed that its attacks are meant to expel US forces from Iraq.[51] This framing is consistent with CTP-ISW’s assessment that Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are conducting a campaign to expel the United States from Iraq with military and political pressure.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed that the United States has the right to retaliate against Iranian-backed terror organizations for attacks on US personnel during a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani on December 9.[52] Austin's call with Sudani comes after the Islamic Resistance in Iraq escalated its attack campaign on December 8. Austin stated that the US-designated terrorist organizations KH and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba (HHN) have conducted the majority of attacks on coalition personnel since the Israel-Hamas war began.[53] Austin and Sudani also discussed the Iraqi central government's obligation to ensure the security of US and coalition personnel, advisers, and facilities.[54]
Sudani ordered the establishment of a working group to investigate the December 8 rocket attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad and NSS headquarters.[55] Sudani granted the team “broad powers” to confront any threats to the security of diplomatic missions in Iraq.[56] Iraqi military spokesperson Yahya Rasoul claimed that the team will work with local authorities to identify and arrest individuals responsible for the attacks.[57]
full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-9-2023