No two ways about it.
They want the guns, but they want them one of two ways.
Either gradually, so two generations from now, brainwashed grandkids will glady turn them in, or
Sporadic, poorly thought out resistence occurs so they can claim an internal right-wing terrorism, and take out the leadership in selected raids, followed by long-term clampdowns on gun owners.
Probably a combination of the two.
Massive, all at once raids will not happen.
You are close... Selected, scattered raids will occur, so that a defense can’t be started... People are going to just disappear
The worst thing they can actually do is restrict ammo sales real hard for people who follow the law. Or make it scarce. That way, people can have all the guns they want, but limited ammo...
Or outlaw lead or primers.
We have the guns. But they can make our lives living hell. If we don’t shut up, we’ll get fired from our jobs.