I think it comes down to PA.
I think the odds are greater that Trump will win MI than he will PA. PA is just too much of an unknown with voter fraud. In an honest election, your map would have a good deal more Red.

He is ahead in MI and very likely in WI in early voting and will clean up on day of voting.
I think he will eventually win PA, but Dems in Philly will find a way to delay the results for weeks.
Dems have to be crapping bricks about Now
We are going to win MI.
Bad map. MI and WI stay Trump.
Trump starts with 306 from 2016. Can lose PA, no way, and still have 286. I think he’ll pick up MN, NV and NH. That is 20 more.