“Or they’ll do I now as an October surprise”
The Chinese are unlikely to do anything with live ammunition before March. The weather in the strait is too bad for an invasion between October and March. Taking a few shots at Taiwan would do nothing for China now. However, if the troops and logistics continue to build up, we can expect an invasion sometime next year. Xi has promised this would happen. If he fails to deliver then he will lose face. For him to lose face now would be fatal for him and he knows it. He would rather hundreds of thousands die than to be deposed.