again, thedonald.win...:
First, if you haven’t voted, get out and vote! And take everyone you know with you to vote straight R as well. I like analyzing numbers so thought I’d spend a little time this afternoon doing so in a couple battleground states.
This data is based on actual 2016 results and data from Target Smart on what has been returned so far.
WI: Milwaukee county: current returns are 68% D, 13% R, 18% I. But, compare that to 2016 early votes of 73% D, 16% R and 10% I and it doesn’t look so bad.
Waukesha county (Milwaukee burb): current returns are 73% R, 9% D, 18% I. Compare that to 2016 early returns which were 65% R, 25% D, 9% I. Trump won this district 62 - 34. Seems like it is trending better now. Total number of R ballots returned so far is 51k vs. 6k for D. In 2015, D’s returned 7k and R’s 18k. YUGE! About 234k people voted total in 2016, to give you some idea of population.
Racine County (Milwaukee burb): 2016 Trump won 50-45%. Early vote in 2016 was 55 D, 34R, 11 I. Today it is 30D, 45R, 25I. And again on the totals. 2016 had 7400 D vote early, so far in 2020 it’s 6900. R in 2016 was 4500 voting early. Today it’s 10500. About 94k votes in the county in 2016.
Washington County (Milwaukee burb) went 68-27 Trump in 2016. Early vote in 2016 was 21D, 70R, 9 I. Now it is 83R, 5(!!!) D, 12 I. YUGE! This was about 75k votes in 2016.
I’m not going to exhaust everyone with numbers, but other counties with similar losses for D’s are Sheboygan, Fond Du Lac, Walworth, Ozaukee, Manitowac.
Now, Dane county (Madison) is a problem, but hopefully the R’s just haven’t voted yet, and obviously we have two weeks for these numbers to change. But, it is surprising to me that in many cases more R’s have voted by mail
MN: Washington County MSP (burb): Crooked won 47-45. Early vote was 50 D, 37 R, 13 I in 2016. Right now it’s 30 D, 37 R, 33 I. This is a county with about 142k voters in 2016.
Dakota county (MSP burb): Crooked won 48-43. Early vote in 2015 was 50 D, 36 R, 14 I. Now it’s 35 D, 34 R, 31 I. This is a county with about 228k votes in 2016.
Olmsted County went to Crooked 46-45. Early vote in 2016 was 52D, 33 R, 15 I. Now it’s 42D, 27R, 31 I. Still, quite a loss for the D’s. About 78k votes there.
Now, Hennepin is looking like a problem with 208k D, 45k I, and 33k R voting already. This went to Crooked 429k to 192k in 2016, so I sure hope there’s a lot of R’s that are going to vote still. The Iron Range also hasn’t had any shift, if anything a bit towards D, but I think we know that has to go red, right?