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What does the model show since you started? just curious.

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I have tried several models. In the very early days I was inspired by FReeper Doodlebob to search for a "Logistic" function that would map both the rise and the fall of a viral epidemic. Doodlebob claimed to have correctly plotted the 2003 SARs epidemic using this type of function (which I would also refer to as a dynamically shifting exponential function).

I quickly noted that we were actually in a straight exponential phase in March, but this became Linear in a matter of weeks. I never could find a Logistic or other time variant function that was better than straight LINEAR (equal number of New Cases daily) after that.

The initial LINEAR model broke down to the downside, and I thought we were going to be almost virus-free before the election. This little "Prediction" stayed neat and tidy until June, when the Southern crest started to hit ... and simultaneously the Testing results got wildly off the rails in terms of FALSE POSITIVES ... verified as such because the extra "Cases" did not move the needle on deaths.

Then the Southern crest waned, and I thought once again we would be almost out of the woods by Labor Day ... which ALMOST happened ... then the cases started to rise again all over the country ... like an evenly distributed "Fog."

I DID NOT, AND DO NOT, BELIEVE that the majority of these new cases are real. The rise in cases HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED BY RISING DEATHS, and whenever a particular individual has access and motivation for deeper FOLLOW-UP testing, such as professional athletes, it seems like most of the time it turns out to be a FALSE POSITIVE.

AT THE MOMENT, we are STARTING TO RISE AGAIN in Daily Cases. I strongly suspect this is all about the election, but I don't know how it is being accomplished ... whether the Testing has been rigged again, or whether possibly we have been hit with follow up attacks of a bioweapon.

In any event, the DEATHS STILL DO NOT CONFIRM all the hanky-panky that has been evident in the Case Counts since mid-June, and AGAIN ACCELERATING after Labor Day.

I guess what my models have shown me is that this Chinavirus is PROBABLY NOT GOING TO DISAPPEAR like SARS 1, Swine Flu, Spanish Flu etc. Instead, IT MAY BECOME ENDEMIC ... never going away entirely.

Then we will get to the QUESTION of vaccines.

But that will be a question for 2021.

“AT THE MOMENT, we are STARTING TO RISE AGAIN in Daily Cases.”

And how does this correlate to the typical seaonal common cold increase year in year in
out? I’d bet they didn’t track that before.

But you didn’t answer the question. What would the numbers look like now in you original model?

Bttt

Since we are now thinking it lives on surfaces in bathrooms, could it live on the surface of water? Perhaps the moisture in bathrooms is a factor? We know it can be aerosolized.

Perhaps water supplies are being sprayed with it? Or lakes where people swim and fish? This might account for the wave in the south and spring break.

WATCH THE WATER.

I'm happy to see I inspired something good in the world!

Yes, the logistic function is designed to model phenomena that plot as an s-curve, a slow start then a steep, exponential-like rise then an abatement as a (natural or otherwise) resistance kicks in. This model fit nicely the SARS epidemic in many places like HK:

Where the logistic function did NOT work on SARS was in Canada, where there were two waves:

Regarding "second waves" it is noteworthy to look at New Zealand, which "successfully" went 100+ days without a case then - surprise - a second wave started in Auckland and their govt clamped down hard again.

Thus a logistic model wouldn't catch second waves etc at this stage of the game if COVID19 is like SARS...over the long haul the waves will be blips/errors in the model but ultimate convergence will be obtained.

DoughtyOne has the best daily compendium of data on COVID19 anywhere. His test data since Sept 1 shows a gradual rise in the number of tests but high variation in the daily positive test rate. At the same time, the number of daily fatalities has fluctuated with only six days out of the past 30 having 1000+ fatalities. As DoughtyOne states

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low, vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the end of the disease.

The sustained rise in US case count can be partially attributed to greater availability of, and citizen demand for, testing. Even if the positive test rate declines, if volume of testing rises you can get a higher new case count - it's math. The general lack of attendant rise in fatalities, I believe, can reflect the makeup of the new positives (e.g. College kids) who have few comorbidities.

There was an excellent article a few weeks ago that null pinged (which I can't find now) regarding the widened definition of a "case." In short, a case used to be someone who tests positive AND has active symptoms. Nowadays, for COVID19, we have cases that only test positive with maybe mild symptoms. This has the effect of "inflating" the case count and distorting statistics and models.

But it's not like we don't know this is happening...and if you ask usually centrist friends, they'll open up and tell you, they see what's happening too. And there is the difference. The US isn't being fooled by a handful of puppet masters. We like to believe in movie fantasies, that there is a cabal of evil men who rule the world. And, to be fair, such evil lurks in men's hearts.

But backtesting this fantasy shows that in WWII and the Cold War, such a cabal never existed. Yes, there were bad, evil men...but in time they tuned out to be just as stupid as the rest of us. Hans Gruber isn't real, and even he died in the end.

Are some of the data inflated? Yup. Do I believe there is evil in 2020 seeking to politicize this virus? Of course. Do I believe there is coordination amongst the evil ones? Yes, especially the MSM. Do I think they are smart? Lemme see...Connie Corleone, Michigan Medusa, PA's top idiot Woof(sic), NJ's Murphy, the entire staff at MSNBC and CNN...not a high IQ amongst them. Do I believe they control all the official apparatus and fake all of this? NFW.

While this was no boating accident, I bet we are seeing the result of a virus that kills those with comorbidities but which, like the flu, isn't highly lethal but is contagious for most of society, and will be with us until The End. Hopefully Trump wins, and we will learn ultimately to live with it, much like we live with drunk drivers, crystal meth Floridamen, dopes on motorcycles, incompetent physicians, undercooked eggs, annoying in-laws, and of course Springsteen.