What does the model show since you started? just curious.
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I have tried several models. In the very early days I was inspired by FReeper Doodlebob to search for a "Logistic" function that would map both the rise and the fall of a viral epidemic. Doodlebob claimed to have correctly plotted the 2003 SARs epidemic using this type of function (which I would also refer to as a dynamically shifting exponential function).
I quickly noted that we were actually in a straight exponential phase in March, but this became Linear in a matter of weeks. I never could find a Logistic or other time variant function that was better than straight LINEAR (equal number of New Cases daily) after that.
The initial LINEAR model broke down to the downside, and I thought we were going to be almost virus-free before the election. This little "Prediction" stayed neat and tidy until June, when the Southern crest started to hit ... and simultaneously the Testing results got wildly off the rails in terms of FALSE POSITIVES ... verified as such because the extra "Cases" did not move the needle on deaths.
Then the Southern crest waned, and I thought once again we would be almost out of the woods by Labor Day ... which ALMOST happened ... then the cases started to rise again all over the country ... like an evenly distributed "Fog."
I DID NOT, AND DO NOT, BELIEVE that the majority of these new cases are real. The rise in cases HAS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED BY RISING DEATHS, and whenever a particular individual has access and motivation for deeper FOLLOW-UP testing, such as professional athletes, it seems like most of the time it turns out to be a FALSE POSITIVE.
AT THE MOMENT, we are STARTING TO RISE AGAIN in Daily Cases. I strongly suspect this is all about the election, but I don't know how it is being accomplished ... whether the Testing has been rigged again, or whether possibly we have been hit with follow up attacks of a bioweapon.
In any event, the DEATHS STILL DO NOT CONFIRM all the hanky-panky that has been evident in the Case Counts since mid-June, and AGAIN ACCELERATING after Labor Day.
I guess what my models have shown me is that this Chinavirus is PROBABLY NOT GOING TO DISAPPEAR like SARS 1, Swine Flu, Spanish Flu etc. Instead, IT MAY BECOME ENDEMIC ... never going away entirely.
Then we will get to the QUESTION of vaccines.
But that will be a question for 2021.