+27312 New Cases
86,912 TOTAL DEAD
After seeing Fauci get questioned by Rand Paul it is clear that Fauci is well-spoken and intelligent. He also is very educated and experienced. For him to advise on public health policy as poorly as he has means that he is 1. evil, and/or 2. A Democrat stooge. I am glad Trump is downplaying his role and I look forward to his “retirement” in November.
It’s useful to look at how CV has played out in Italy, South Korea, Spain, and other countries that seem to be further along with disease’s progression. This CV is on the way out and any talk of second waves is overstated.
Basically the R0 for this must be overstated, probably by the same scientists who said 2.2 Million will die in the US, and this leads to a lower threshold needed for herd immunity. R0 is the average of how many people catch the virus from a single infected person, assuming everyone is susceptible. The effective R goes down as the disease spreads. Herd immunity threshold = 1-1/R0. Initially scientists said 60% of the population need immunity for this disease to go away, but we are seeing a rapid decline of CV in NYC and other places with only 20% possessing antibodies.
Looking forward to Governor Abbott opening more of Texas on Monday. When a larger state like Texas opens up and everything is OK it puts tremendous pressure on those left wing governors.
Ping. Freepmail Impimp to go on the ping list.
How soon will the fear per be here
A repost, with updates
First, the Axioms:
1.) An estimate divided by an estimate yields garbage (1)
2.) An estimate divided by a reliable number yields an estimate
3.) A reliable number divided by a reliable number yields a reliable number
Next, the Postulates:
1.) The estimates from the CDC are just that, estimates
2.) The population numbers from the Census Bureau are reliable
Then, the Definitions:
1.) The Case Morbidity Ratio (CMR) is the ESTIMATE of the number of deaths divided by the ESTIMATE of the number of cases, expressed as a percentage
2.) The Overall Morbidity Ratio (OMR) is the estimate of the number of deaths divided by the population, expressed as a percentage
Description Deaths (est) Population OMR
Spanish Flu (1918) 675 000 103 208 000 0.65%
Asian Flu (1957) 116 000 171 984 000 0.067%
Hong Kong Flu (1968) 100 000 205 806 000 0.049%
Current Flu so far 62 000 333 456 000 0.018%
COVID19 (2020 so far) 83 947 333 456 000 0.025%
Note 1: The mortality numbers we see being bandied about (5%, 10%, 15%) are Case Morbidity Ratios, and these numbers do not even rise to the level of a guess.
Note 2: All death estimates are from the CDC website. All population numbers are from the US Census Bureau website.
(I apologize in advance for the formatting - it didn’t work out quite how I expected.)
Haven’t commented on this thread in awhile. Keep up the good work!
Also, what a complete idiot Kozak is. Must lead an absolutely miserable life hiding in fear. Relax, Kozak. You only get one life...try actually living it.
My wife and I went to lunch at Chili’s yesterday here in the Houston suburbs. It was limited to 25% capacity per the state reopening order, but it was filled to that capacity. We had to wait 20 minutes to get in. Virtually no one other than staff wearing masks. Of course, the “Boss” burger I had probably has a higher fatality rate that Clovis-19.
Meanwhile, there was only one car in line at the Covid-19 testing site down the road. The Chicken Littles are getting quieter as it becomes clearer, now on Day 15 after the “reopening” order went into effect, that the sky is not falling.
Abbot is showing the way, although I wish he would do it more forcefully. You can’t wait until the bedwetters are feel like they are ready to leave their homes. They will never be ready. We need leaders who are like jumpmasters at Benning, and push them out the door if they are too scared to jump.
Not sure how this gets listed as anything other than Chat....but that’s a topic for another day.
Fauci and any of these docs are Always going to give answers that are the most cautious and on the “abundance of caution” spectrum.
It is up to the politicians to decide what is in the best interest for the entire country. And with a country as diverse as the US there will never be a one size fits all answer.
The folks expecting blanket, across the country, pronouncements are not thinking this through well.
And all of this macho crap about not wearing masks and not getting a vaccine are merely peacocks strutting around. When it comes down to being able to go back to work and getting a shot—you will get the shot. When it comes down to wearing a mask, you will either wear it...or not get in.
It’s all pretty simple. You don’t have to like it. And I am sure folks will bitch. But you’ll do it.
Listen and obey peasants. Heel! This is for your own good (i.e. give up your will to resist. There is nothing to worry about; I am the almighty overseer, divinely given you. Therefore, shutup and never question my queenship.
Us on top have something for you—Money. From now on, underlings retain no right for self reliance and this newflu proves my point.
This is for your own good! Don’t you pay attention!
This is what my brain translates when I hear that Whitmer talk.
RIP Jerry Stiller.
ENTERTAINING!