Posted on 04/18/2020 7:05:19 PM PDT by Libloather
The Covid-19 shutdowns have been based on the premise that the disease would kill more than two million Americans absent drastic actions to slow its spread. That model assumed case fatality rates - the share of infected people who die from the disease - of 1% to 3%. The World Health Organization’s estimated case-fatality rate was 3.4%.
Some experts - including in these pages - have questioned this assumption. They argue that known cases are likely only a small portion of the true number of infections, and thus high case-fatality rates could be off by orders of magnitude. We don’t know what portion of infections have gone undetected for a lack of tests, restrictive qualifications to get tested, and a potentially large incidence of mild illness or asymptomatic infection.
New data support the skeptics’ view - a preliminary study by a Stanford team, released Friday. They conducted a seroprevalence study of Santa Clara County, Calif., on April 3 and 4. They studied a representative sample of 3,300 residents to test for the presence of antibodies in their blood that would show if they had previously been infected with the novel coronavirus.
(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...
And that's after the country puts itself into lockdown.
Did you have a fever? If you didn't have a fever, you didn't have this.
They had the same foot on the banana peel last year, but they weren't dying at this rate.
Exactly. And now foolish people are using the numbers we have obtained during the lockdown to pretend that the lockdown was unnecessary because the numbers are so low.
Silly people.
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Well, being behind a paywall, it’s not useful.
The coronavirus is deadly to the elderly and those with weakened bodies already, mostly due to voluntary choice of a bad lifestyle.”
Yes, those of us that are older, as am I, should be careful. Also those with co-morbidities.
But those younger and in good health should be able to go to work and outdoor activities should be open.
It is not up to the states or any government to look after with those who might be in danger. One would hope that those of us that have been living quite a while can look after their own health. Like, wise, those with health conditions should be enough aware to look after themselves. No government is our overlord, our lives and health should be our own concern.
New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought
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They say we like they have a turd in their pocket.
Not everyone bought into all this BS ‘sky is falling crap’.
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Reading further, they apparently found antibodies for 49-50 people amongst the 3300, which they weighted to give a value representing 94 people. That’s got a huge margin of error in respect to what we are talking about.
“These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April,”
Please tell us how many Americans have died from the economic devastation the panicked politicians have caused due to their hysterical overreaction.
You have no clue as to how chronic some of these medical conditions are with some of these folks and while some may not have been around long, others could have lived many years with their conditions, so classifying as covid-19 sounds correct to me.
Yeah. He’s not actually done with the study to attempt to prove that (He started March 30th and expects to take 4 weeks to collect the data). His release of dubious stuff like almost two seeks ago should make us hold our judgement.
Most of those 39,000 has serious existing maladies. They died WITH covid-19, not necessarily because of it. They had one foot in the grave and other on a banana peel. Why blame the banana peel.
PS. “Existing malady” includes having or *ever* having had any level of high blood pressure, which alone includes about half of all adults in the country. While slanted towards the elderly over 45, this is killing folks that the flu typically doesn’t and includes a fair number of people who are still of working age. This is much broader that “one foot on a banana peel”.
People can live with a chronic condition for many years and have quality of life. People live with diabetes, obesity and cancer for many years - along with all kinds of other maladies. So if they get covid-19 virus and it kills them, then they died of covid-19.
You have no clue as to how chronic some of these medical conditions are with some of these folks and while some may not have been around long, others could have lived many years with their conditions, so classifying as covid-19 sounds correct to me.
But those younger and in good health should be able to go to work and outdoor activities should be open.
“The Covid-19 shutdowns have been based on the premise that the disease would kill more than two million Americans absent drastic actions to slow its spread.”
Differpeople had different goals. Fauci wanted lockdown until a vaccine came available. For real. Economic consequences be damned.
Most seemed to want to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, to the point people were dying on gurneys in hallways due to lack of treatment—mainly not enough ventilators. At the time, people thought the number of ventilators was the determining factor of who would live or die. Early pics from Italy showed that kind of chaos.
That didn’t happen. So they moved the goalposts to “slow the spread,” for, well, slowing the spread’s sake. No actual reason given. That’s insane!!! Meanwhile, in America, close to 1,000,000 JOBS EACH DAY ARE LOST!!!! Every day counts!!!
Open everything NOW!!!!!!
“39,000 Americans dead in 1 month.
5.3% of known cases and still rising.”
Most of them in NYC. And read up on how they determine to label it a COVID-19 death.
And if we ever get a count of the unknown cases, that percentage is going to be proved worthless.
Would have bit a few weeks ago, but all such conjecture, at this stage and with all the actions taken to change the projections, and the obvious sincere belief of the President that early and intense action may have saved millions, I’ll defer judgement until time has provided more useful data.
Here is a link to the study.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
The participants were self selected, so people who had symptoms already or had contact with someone who was infected might be more likely to want to be tested, increasing the infection rate in the sample.
Also, the infection rate of normal flu, determined by blood tests, is probably 4 times greater than the number of symptomatic cases. The seasonal flu death rate last year was about .1%, calculated by considering symptomatic cases. If you consider all cases as determined by blood tests, including those with no symptoms, as the Stanford study does, the infection mortality rate for normal flu goes down to .025%, so Covid19 is 10 times as deadly (in study 69/28,000 presumed infected = .24%)
Also the mortality rate in NYC is 13,000/9,000,000 people so if all are infected (hard to believe since only 55% of people tested so far are positive, and you have to have symptoms to be tested) the mortality rate is at least .15%. NYC data is a pretty big sample, compared to 4,000 people self-selected using Facebook
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
You can also see the nationwide spike in flu-related deaths in national statistics, it blows away the 2017-18 flu already and data is not yet complete.
“NYC regularly has about 150 deaths per day from all causes This varies from 168 in a bad flu season, to about 140 in the summer. So far this month, they’ve had over 700/day.”
Thanks for your sane and sensible response.
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