The low testing has made it completely impossible to intelligently make any sort of projections....very frustrating...I have no clue what is happening in Texas, where the numbers are going, how well mitigation is happening etc—and neither do any fake or real “experts”.
Hospitalization and intensive care rates would be the best proxy, but that data is not readily available at the county or state level.
Deaths of course is a very lagging indicator, probably three weeks or more...
Ack, I said 3 cases here but it’s really 4 that are verified by CDC. If they can’t keep the number right for 4, there’s no way they’re right on hot spots.