Posted on 03/23/2020 3:55:11 PM PDT by dangus
Good news!
I take it upon myself to identify good news in crises, since the mainstream media almost always overlooks good news. Like when Ebola went away, they simply quit reporting. I haven't had much good news to report since South Korea largely conquered the Coronavirus, COVID-19.
Around a week ago, it looked like we were starting to see some flattening of the curve in the U.S., but then the number of positive tests exploded, probably simply because the number of tests exploded. We may be starting to see some real flattening, but a local explosion in the New York City metro area has be undecided how to avoid cherry-picking data.
The real explosive news comes out of Italy. Now, about 10 days ago, I reported the decline in Korea and a possible decline in Italy. The headline I used proved to be misleading; the two nations combined had a declining number of new cases, and in the immediately preceding two days both nations had a decline in the number of new cases. But the decline in Italy was a product of inconsistent reporting, a glitch in the data. And while the "infection curve" did continue to flatten, the happiness seems a little misplaced, given the truly astounding death rate among the modest number of Italians who did get sick. The glitch in the data fooled me because the curve really was flattening!!!
Perhaps that's why I've been shy to report the excellent news that's been coming out of Italy since. You see, the virus has continued to spread, but at a declining rate which reveals the claims of from idiots like Angela Merkl, and various left-wing American politicians that most of us will get sick are nothing but a lot of hysteria designed to destroy markets and sow political destruction.
The truth is There were fewer new infections in Italy than there have been in a week. This is not a data hiccup; there have been fewer new infections each day for four days now.
So for all the people who warn of the horrors to come, saying that what happens in Italy will soon happen here, I can only say, THANK GOD! because it looks like Italy is following the same type of curve that South Korea and, reportedly, China have followed, a curve that, for America, points to hundreds of thousands, but not hundreds of millions, of infections.
Date New 02/29/20 234 03/01/20 573 03/02/20 335 03/03/20 466 03/04/20 587 03/05/20 769 03/06/20 778 03/07/20 1247 03/08/20 1492 03/09/20 1797 03/10/20 977 03/11/20 2313 03/12/20 2651 03/13/20 2547 03/14/20 3497 03/15/20 3590 03/16/20 3233 03/17/20 3526 03/18/20 4207 03/19/20 5322 03/20/20 5986 03/21/20 6557 03/22/20 5560
Italian New Cases vs. Date
Today's new case report is lower than previous two. More importantly, the percent growth rate is down to a 7 day doubling, from a 3 day doubling a month ago.
Or...Maybe you should t rely on data from a Chinese commie dictatorship?
Good news!
BOL! Run for your life!!!!
A good place to see how things are going, both by country and state, is by looking at the death trends at this site (yes, hosted by the nytimes):
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html
As one can see, Italy (and even Spain) are showing a “flattening of the curve.” The US is still pretty straight but one must consider that on a per-capita basis its numbers are still very low, and a lot of different things can happen as the numbers get larger - some even good.
“Politicians and media people predicting 50-80% infection rates seem to have a hard time explaining the lack of 750,000,000 to 1,200,000,000 infected Chinese”
BOL! Please refrain from using history and reality in your future posts! /S
I hope this is true. But almost everywhere the number of new cases seems to depend on how much testing is done.
Everyone should remember, the virus usually makes a second run.
It seemed like Trump said he’s just going to let it go.
Lockdowns work. Proven again & again.
Jacksonville-palm coast beaches are where we hang out.
Your report is inaccurate, which is why you include no numbers or graphs.
There all dead Jim
Initial doubling rate is always deceptively high due to an immediate ramp up in testing.
Intuitively at least, there is. If 90% of the herd is immune, really immune, then a pandemic has a limited number of hosts, so can't rage at the same rate that it could against a herd that is 5% or 20% immune.
100% immunity isn't required in order to prevent pandemic.
i don't see herd immunity as having any play in the WuFlu event, at least not yet.
still, if you're in a risk group, self isolate...its never been clearer....
Well, yeah. A new case can only be a new case if it’s backed by a positive test result. But if the process and application of tests is consistent over time then the direction of change in positive results tells the story. As does the mix.
The cases seem to follow the same bell shaped curve in every country over 8-10 weeks so I doubt lockdown tells the whole story
No you don't! Dat's my money and I want dit!
And only 330,000 positive tests and 111 deaths in Korea, among a population of over 51 million.
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