Exactly, so I can't see how you believe your numbers based on number of cases vs populations, which the actual cases of infection can only be determined by testing for the virus, have any significance at all.
Secondly, the rate at which this virus has propagated, in every country where it has been detected, has exceeded the ability of even the most draconian steps in the initial phases to control, or test for it.
Respectfully, your post is just a distraction from what we should be doing. And that is getting the word out to prepare for possible lock downs to control the spread of the Corona virus here, so that our health systems aren't inundated.
In simple terms, it means we need to make sure we are able to shelter in place for several weeks, at least.
Time is short. President Trump's people, without doubt, know Italy will be here in a very few weeks or days. Ask yourself; what steps could be taken to prevent what is taking place in Italy from taking place here.
Only one thing, a complete and immediate lock down of the entire country.
No one knows how bad the virus will, or will not be when it hits here in large numbers. So forgot the CFR factor or number of cases in your estimation of where this is headed.
It is a political monster now and that means shutdowns/lockdowns are the norm. Plus, the administration has already taken heat from the low number of tests conducted, so they're going to be even more inclined to act - even perhaps drastically.
Finish your preparations NOW! This isn't scare mongering, it's a logical conclusion. At worse, if there is no lock down, you've at least got your shopping done for a while.
Finally, what you, or I, or the rest of us peons think or believe, isn't going to make one bit of difference to where this is headed. All we can do is affect our own well being.
These are unprecedented times. Get prepared, keep your hands clean, and don't touch your face! ;)
I do not subscribe to such paranoia.