You are exactly right. Actual fatality rate is probably under 1%. See actul stats below.
Re: “In Italy the current death rate is running at 6.6%.” “No it isn’t. To know the death rate have to know how many cases there are and they don’t know that. Recorded cases may be a small minority of actual cases.”
The country that has done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea , they have tested well over 250,000 and have 7,869 cases and 66 deaths for a fatality rate of .008 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.
As a matter of fact if you add up the top 15 countries with reported cases excluding China, Italy and Iran ) you get over 20,446 cases and 247 deaths for a fatality rate of .012-about 1%. Probably lower and more in line with S Korea as many cases are even more mild. As more test are done you will see more confirmed cases and death rate dropping as it already has started to do.
The catch is that the current South Korea “fatality rate” (simplified...only 333 of 7869 case have been resolved/recovered) is 0.84% which sounds pretty low but is 6 times higher than a bad flu year in the U.S.. The most important # is the “serious/critical” % of total cases (cases requiring intubation and a ventilator)...that is running about 10% in S. Korea.
Death rate conversations are kind of moot, aren’t they?
If it is you or a loved one, the only rate that matters is 0% or 100%.
Debating this stuff—at this point is the “dancing on the head or a pin.”
It really doesn’t matter.