What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?

Vanity | 9/1/2019 | Self

[Mr.Unique]

The same models that predict global warming.

[MV=PY]

"Same computer models used to predict global cooling then global warming now climate change. The GIGO rule of basic programming still holds true, Garbage In, Garbage Out."

No, they're not. Not even close.

[Yo-Yo]

These are the same sort of models that can't predict the path of a hurricane more than two days out that are used to warn us that we only have. 11.18 years left to take action against catastrophic global climate change.

[GreyFriar]

Joe Bastardi, of Weatherbell.com, said on Monday or Tuesday that he thought that the hurricane would probably curve and track up the coast and the eye would not hit the Florida coast, but that it would receive very heavy winds and rain. He also mentioned that, based upon historic hurricane tracks, he saw a slight, but possible chance of it crossing Florida and renew strength in the Gulf of Mexico.

[thoughtomator]

These models suck past 24 hours.

Not one model got Dorian passing east of Puerto Rico. Not one.

[Texas resident]

but possible chance of it crossing Florida and renew strength in the Gulf of Mexico....The predictions are just that, predictions and they can change quickly.

That is why we in Texas are watching this monster. I remember Hurricane Andrew. Smacked South Florida pretty hard, got into the Gulf, then his South Louisiana.

Also, Harvey hit Texas, got back into the Gulf, then came back for another run up the coast.

[Kickass Conservative]

Didn’t you hear what happened on MSNBC?

POTUS Trump found The Bush Weather Machine in the basement of the White House. When he learned that the Hurricane might hit and damage his Country Club, he decided to use it.

[kristinn]

If you don't remember the early models showing Dorian making a possible northward turn away from Florida than you have not been paying attention. That was always reported as a possibility but was not seen as likely given the conditions at the time.

Florida is still not safe, however. The forecast puts the eye of Dorian just off the coast and a shift of a few miles west could be catastrophic.

Even with the eye off the coast Florida will get hit with a strong storm surge, hurricane force winds and torrential rains.

[CodeToad]

Those models can’t get the next 6 hours correct. All the millions of dollars and college academics working on those models and they can’t predict so much as 6 hours from now.

[outofsalt]

;)

[CodeToad]

“Let me know when you can model weather on the Earth days out perfectly.”

Actually, we pilots winters storms three weeks out. So far, pretty accurate. In fact, many pilots I know put work from home days on their calendars three weeks out to avoid coming into work on snow days.

[outofsalt]

"OBX is going get nailed."

Joe Bastardi has Dorian coming in just West of Hatteras.

[GOPJ]

I had family members in the Tampa Bay area that went to three and four gas stations before finding gas - - and we were on the fringe of where the storm ‘might’ go...

[GreyFriar]

Yes, a wise bit of caution on your part. That “only 2% chance” of happening can always turn into a 100% ass biter. I’m hoping that it stays off shore and folks “only” have to deal with the outer wind and rain from it.

[HotHunt]

My wife grew up in Florida.

She says some warning, any warning, is better than what used to happen....no warning at all.

When she was a kid, she said these things used to show up and slam them without any warning.

So people nowadays should count their blessings that they've been give a heads up, albeit maybe not as accurate or precise as some people would want, but a warning nonetheless.

The alternative, not knowing it's coming at all, is worse.

[GreyFriar]

I think that Weatherbell.com has had better and more accurate hurricane seasonal forecasting. Joe Bastardi use to put up a daily weather blurb on the site, but it has been cut back to a weekly posting every Saturday. Joe’s forecast last week was for the EYE of this hurricane to stay off shore and not make landfall in Florida or the southeast coast; but, he said that the the coast would get battered by the wind and rain of the outlying bands of it.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

Computer models in general are crap. Small errors add up, making each cycle increasingly inaccurate. But it’s from a powerful computer so people trust it.

It depends on what the models are about. I’m old enough to remember when the government was experimenting with seeding clouds with iodine crystals to try to precipitate rain.

They quit. The reason they quit was that someone ran a weather prediction computer model - one which he knew to be too crude to actually be useful - and printed out the results over a certain duration. He thought better of terminating the computer run as soon as he had, so he took the printed results from partway thru the run, and fed them back into the computer to repeat the end of the run and extend out further.

So the computer put out some result which he expected to match his previous run - not precisely because the printed results he had were not printed out to the full precision of the internal values, but close. Or so he thought. What happened instead was that the first results from the new run were similar to the first run, but very quickly the results diverged utterly. In short order there was no similarity at all. He was shocked at first, but when he analyzed the equations from the new perspective, he was able to recognize that he had a “small difference of large numbers” problem embedded in them.

Take the example of profit and loss. Profit is revenue minus expenses. Unless you have an extremely profitable (or unprofitable) business, revenue is fairly close - within, say, 10% - of expenses. Fine. But suppose you try to estimate next year’s revenue and expenses to predict next year’s profit. And suppose your estimate of each is only good to within 5%. We’re talking about the future . . .

Under those conditions, what is the % tolerance on your estimate of profit? There isn’t any bound on the possible percentage error! Because the difference between revenue and expenses might be very close zero - and if it is, then what ever your estimated profit was is all error. And that error, compared to the actual result of near zero, is off of the mark by an unlimited percentage.

So the researcher wrote up his finding, and predicted that the weather could never be accurately forecast for long periods of time, because the input data would never be good enough, and extensive enough, to support that possibility. He had a hard time, back in the early 1950s, getting his result published, and then in a relatively obscure foreign journal. That “little gem of a paper” is now looked on as the beginning of Chaos theory.

They stopped experimenting with controlling the weather when they realized that they could never predict the weather - and if they couldn’t do that, they could never know the effect of their intervention.

[PJ-Comix]

Model predictions are heavily dependent on current conditions. Predictions more than a couple of days out are just guesses. This tells you all you need to know about climate models.

But computer models showing that we will all DIE due to Global Warming in 30 years MUST be right.

[SuperLuminal]

Every time a new supply of meth gets to town, the climatologists have to get their thinking adjusted...

So, the DEA should review any, and all, hurricane path predictions before they are released to the press and assign an additional, appropriate attribute to each specific prediction model...

[Svartalfiar]

Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.

Um, I haven't been following this (in TX so doesn;t matter to me), but the 2-3 maps I've seen had it hitting mid-FL, then just going right up the coast into VA.

Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.

All those current ones do still hit FL and the coast. Those lines are just the eye of the hurricane - they'll still get plenty of water and hurricane winds on land!