Ebola projection from 8 Sept 2014 (post in 1650-ish range) vs 22 Sept 2014 Reality.
The WHO Ebola case data previously supported a monthly doubling trend (AKA an ~RO=3 per the Foreign Policy Ebola article from Early Sept 2012).
In black and white numbers, from May thru Sept 2014.
May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243),
June 1 = 375 cases,
July 1 = 750 cases,
Aug 1 = 1500 cases (After FP article reported July RO of 2.83 for Sierra Leone),
Sept 1 = 3000 cases.
Projection for the rest of 2014 based on monthly doubling (AKA RO stays at 3.0) —
Oct 1 = 6000
Nov 1 = 12,000
Dec 1 = 24,000
We are currently at 5843 Ebola cases on 22 Sept 2014, with eight days left in Sept, and Liberia four days behind in reporting.
The Ebola case doubling time is now three weeks, and accelerating.
And MSF has just stated — officially theough its head officer — that the WHO Ebola case undercount in West Africa is now 1/5, not 1/3 or 1/4, of total Ebola case load.
Thoroughly depressing.
Holy cow.
They’re doubling every 3 weeks currently.