War in the Middle East: Will Iran’s Nuclear Program Lead to Conflict with Israel

Iran is at the centre of a global storm: targeted by new sanctions, suspected by Washington, defended by Brazil and Turkey. But the complex diplomacy around its nuclear programme could be ended by decisions made not in the United States but in Israel.

Iran has returned to the centre of international diplomacy, and with a vengeance. A week after the crisis over Israel’s assault on an aid-flotilla bound for Gaza, the United Nations Security Council on 9 June 2010 adopted a resolution imposing another tranche of sanctions on the Tehran regime over its contested nuclear programme. The response - from Iran’s ambassador at the UN to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at home - was characteristically vigorous. In the anniversary week of Ahmadinejad’s victory in Iran’s disputed presidential election on 12 June 2010, Iran’s leadership is as determined as ever to withstand what it sees as unjust interference in its internal affairs.

Allegedly peaceful diplomacy will solve the problems with Iran. However, resurrecting Cold War policies for terrorists and rogue states ignores their author’s, George Kennan’s, prerequisites. For him the Marist/Leninist worldview mirrored traditional Russian ruling class neurotic insecurities about retaining power despite archaic, fragile political systems. Kennan believed the Soviets would not pursue the “hazardous, systematic plans of a Hitlerite Germany”, but always seek to undermine Western nations through various strategies short of war. Soviet leadership would not risk national resources and their dominance against adversaries possessing sufficient power, and demonstrating a clear readiness to use it.

Such parallels do not exist for the war on terror in general, or for the current Iranian regime. The massive deaths sought through jihad provide these Islamic fundamentalists both the means and objectives to usher in the Twelfth Imam, while destroying Israel. Their acceptance of violent death dominates allegiances to family, tribe, or country. They see no imperative for retaining a viable economic remnant. Therefore, the deterrent quality of force (mutually assured destruction) becomes useless.

The sanctions are pathetic. After voting in favor, Russia announced there was no problem supplying Iran with an air defense missile system, and additional nuclear power plants.

Victory, and even survival, instead requires vigorous, costly engagement along a full spectrum of diplomacy, including application of espionage and military force. But engagement requires continuous attacks against Iranian leadership, not population. A few willing adversaries must force meaningful forfeitures from this regime, before Israel must again enforce the nuclear non-proliferation protocols.

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