RE Post Nos. 5553 and 5554Fake for sure. Although one regular poster to this thread said last week that EOM posted warnings prior to 09.11, I haven't seen any evidence of this. And when EOM said last Thursday or Friday that he was disappearing for 46 to 72 hours, another of our regular posters was absolutely certain that the House of Saud was about to fall to an AQ coup, which would take place last Saturday. EOM now claims that he will be off line the next four days so he can travel to Mexico and Houston. Perhaps we should assume that the Mexican government is about to fall to an AQ coup, or maybe EOM is going to take over the City of Houston. No wait, I know exactly what is happening: EOM is an AQ pigeon, and he's going to Mexico and Houston to personally deliver messages to AQ cells regarding the next phase of the operation.
Please people. I have no doubt that AQ will strike us again in the USA, and EOM will claim that we should have heeded his warnings. But predicting that AQ will attack us again is like predicting that daylight today will be followed by darkness tonight and then daylight and darkness again tomorrow. Someday the attack will happen, but that doesn't mean that EOM has any greater knowledge of the plan than the rest of us.
I'm skeptical of EOM too, although some of the information they post seems to be gleamed from jihadi boards. My gut is that EOM is a hoaxter although I'll admit some of their postings have been chilling.
One problem with attempting to predict when something will happen is it doesn't take into consideration those things that can stop a planned event dead in its tracks. These can include (some of you have, have already raised, or were recently teenagers and will understand completely my examples!):
1. Increased security. Have you ever thought about sneaking out when you were a teenager? What if mom and dad caught you coming back in through a window. The next morning they make it known to you that the security system had been upgraded and the windows wired to set off an alarm. Result - you don't try to sneak out again. In other words, if you increase security visibly, the risk of getting caught can be so high that it isn't worth the risk.
2. Confiscation of supplies. Let's say you're 17, and mom and dad are gone for the weekend. You're at grandmas, but decide to have a party at home on Friday night. Grandma goes over to feed the dog, finds your stash of booze and other party stuff and confiscates it. Grandma knows about the party, the party supplies are gone, end of party.
3. Information. A few years ago I had the distinct feeling that my oldest child was up to no good in the afternoon before I got home from work. So I made it known that I was suspicious, and that I was then on flex time, and could pop in at home at any point. I came home unexpectedly several times, completely randomly. Never caught anything going on but I think that just knowing that I might come home may have helped keep the kids in line.
4. Visibility. Let's say you're going to toilet paper the trees in the football coach's front yard cause the team won the big game. The chief of police suspects this and plants a police car right in front of the house next door to the mayor. There's a REALLY good chance that you're going to decide to NOT TP the yard that night, right?
OK I agree with the assessment that Saudi Arabia is at VERY high risk, and probably in imminent danger of a coup. So does virtually every other analyst who is familiar with the middle east. No one can pinpoint a time or day. But sometimes there are signs indicating something might happen. When those signs are recognized, and it is made known that they have been recognized, it can cause the bad guys to put off their plans.
I can and do read the Arabic language articles put out by Al Qaeda and there has been a profound change in the tenor of their propaganda. It's no longer exclusively rhetoric and exhortations to violence, although that's in there now too. It has started to take on the tone of press releases. Parts of it sound no more inflammatory than the letters you get from your Congressman. Lots of it is a lot less inflammatory that the campaign stuff you see on TV now. It has taken on the tone of a "done deal".
In other words, they are ramping up for the next phase, when they are operating a government. And folks, there may be problems in Saudi Arabia, but don't think for a second things would be any better under an Al Qaeda led government. Remember Afghanistan and the Taliban? They made the House of Saud look positively liberal!
If you guys want me to, I'll post my analysis of what is going on in Saudi Arabia and the House of Saud, for what it's worth.
But before you discount the possibility of a coup in Saudi Arabia, I suggest you read the following articles:
http://www.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,8380848%255E1702,00.html Terror arrests, explosives seized
From correspondents in Riyadh
January 13, 2004
SAUDI Arabia has found about 300 explosives belts and nearly 24 tonnes of explosive materials and seized an unspecified number of people in its hunt for terror suspects, the interior ministry said today.
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2004/january/01_13_3.html SAUDIS ACKNOWLEDGE AL QAIDA INFILTRATION
ABU DHABI [MENL] -- Saudi Arabia has quietly acknowledged that its security forces and military have been infiltrated by Al Qaida.
Saudi security sources said Al Qaida has succeeded in obtaining military equipment and uniforms for suicide operations in the kingdom. The sources said the insurgency group has also obtained either vehicles from the National Guard or its insignia, which can be imposed on non-official trucks and deceive soldiers at checkpoints.
Al Qaida's use of military and security equipment allowed insurgents to attack the Muhaya compound in Riyad on Nov. 9. The security sources said a foiled Al Qaida attack meant to take place later that month included the use of a forged military vehicle.
The sources said Al Qaida has a range of sources for military equipment. They said several tailors around Riyad who service the military and National Guard routinely sell uniforms without asking clients for identification.