Posted on 03/26/2024 7:41:54 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
Federal government spending is that hideous strength that keeps on chugging along, despite higher rates.
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose for the 12th straight month in January (the latest data released by S&P Global Case-Shiller today), up 0.14% MoM (less than the 0.2% exp)
Source: Bloomberg
That pushed the YoY price up to +6.59% (in line with the +6.60% exp).
“Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.” According to Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%”
Given the smoothing and heavy lag in the Case-Shiller data, it’s hard to find a causal relationship between prices and mortgage rates, but with rates remaining above 7%, it seems hard to believe prices can continue their advance…
Source: Bloomberg
…and we just saw median new home prices tumble (though median existing home prices did increase).
How is Powell going to cut rates when home prices are rising at over 6% per year?
Meanwhile, after declining in February, analysts expected a small rebound in The Conference Board’s consumer confidence print in March, but instead it dropped further to 104.7 (vs 107.0 exp) from 106.7 as expectations plunged but current conditions improved…
Source: Bloomberg
However, for the 5th straight month, the conference board’s headline confidence print was revised downward…
And finally, expectations for stocks to increase from here are at their highest since Jan 2018…
Source: Bloomberg
…that did not end well for stocks.
Government spending and debt are the hideous strength that is driving inflation.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
Yes, it was beneficial for the money markets. in mid 1980 I started working at a Savings & Loan, and were booming A Wa gold. 🙂
My parents bought a home in 1976 for 46K. A split level 3 bedroom two bath. Those were the days. Now it’d be 400K. Crazy!
True for homeowners, because they had something to sell. First time buyers had to save, and inflation coupled with stagnation made saving hard. 🙂
“Vietnam”
No, I was in Sicily...Sigonella...for the gas crunch. I remember seeing the US gas pump lines on TV. US military was lucky. We were given a gas allotment at roughly half price...60, maybe 100 liters? LOL...don’t remember now.
Besides inflation, the main thing I remember Carter for was the failed embassy rescue.
I remember him for a failed presidency. 😋
That’s true. Although the house they sold was tiny. I mean I was 5 and thought it was huge. But went back to see it as an adult and was shocked at her w small it was. It was a ranch style block. lol.
I ended up finding a gem, all brick 3 bed, 2 bath in Springfield for 150K, which sold for about 350K in the mid 90s.
My Aunt got a million for her father's, my grandfather's home in Bethesda Md. in the 2000s. The buyer, a developer tore down that house & built a 2.5+ million house in it's place.
A person, who I worked with, both of us were consultants sent me a picture of the house he bought in the Castro area of California, which was more than 500K in the 2010s. It was probably smaller than what you parents sold, as I would classify it as a bungalow, which is a small step above a shack. 🤣
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