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“Putin and what army? Why Russia keeps putting off mobilization”

“Exactly two years ago, with the Russian Armed Forces facing catastrophic manpower shortages on the front in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin announced a “partial mobilization.” The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had just executed a lightning counteroffensive that liberated large swathes of the Kharkiv region, and Kyiv’s troops were already preparing to do the same around Kherson. Although Russia managed to stabilize the situation in 2023, rumors of a new wave of mobilization have never ceased to circulate, and the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region has given them new momentum. Russia’s acute personnel shortage is evidenced by the facts that Russian commanders are forcing wounded soldiers back to the front, that its army is still making use of poorly trained conscripts, and that after nearly two months, Russia still has not been able to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk Region. Military experts believe Russia could mobilize another 300,000 troops, but that it would struggle to equip and arm them. Meanwhile, mobilization would come at a huge political cost, as those Russians who might have been willing to take up arms have largely already enlisted, and drafting men who are reluctant to fight presents a series of added difficulties.

On the battlefield in Ukraine, August and early September were marked by Russia’s offensive in the Pokrovsk sector of the Donetsk Region. While the advance was fairly rapid by the standards of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russian “war correspondents” have been complaining almost constantly about shortages of personnel and the resulting exhaustion within the advancing group. More and more wounded soldiers in recovery are being forced back to the front, and UAV operators and servicemen from other military branches are being transferred to serve in the infantry (1, 2).

As a result, pro-war Russians are wondering whether a new wave of mobilization is in order, especially since Ukraine has reinvigorated efforts to expand its ranks with the adoption of a draft dodgers law. If Wall Street Journal sources are to be believed, Russian commanders were already emphasizing the need for mobilization to Putin more than six months ago.

To the displeasure of the “patriotic” crowd, Russian officials at various levels of government continue to assure the public that no new wave of mobilization is planned (1, 2, 3), and they frequently report on the supposed successes of contract military recruitment — which is stimulated by frequent pay raises for those willing to enlist voluntarily. The Russian leadership most likely expects to meet at least its short-term military objectives — such as the complete capture of the Donetsk Region — without calling a nationwide mobilization.

The Kremlin’s calculations do not seem to have been affected by the Ukrainian breakthrough into Russia’s Kursk Region: according to estimates from Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, the Russian command managed to pull roughly 35,500 troops to this sector in a few weeks by transferring reserves from quieter parts of the front. As a result, Russian forces even launched a counter-offensive and regained control over several villages.”

https://theins.press/en/politics/274905