NATO jets recently scrambled in response to another Russian flight close to NATO airspace as European states struggle with unidentified, likely Russian, drone activity in border areas and near infrastructure. NATO Air Command reported on September 25 that it scrambled two Hungarian Gripen fighter jets in response to one Russian Su-30 fighter jet, one Su-35 fighter jet, and three MiG-31 interceptor jets that flew close to, but did not enter, Latvian airspace.[1] German authorities identified several unknown drones flying near the Danish border in the northern German state Schleswig-Holstein overnight on September 25 to 26.[2] Schleswig-Holstein Interior Minister Sabine Sütterlin-Waack stated that German authorities are investigating the incursion as the origin of the drones remains unclear. AFP reported on September 25, citing the French Military Department Delegation, that unidentified drones flew over Murmelon-le-Grand military base in Marne, France, but noted that there is currently no evidence of foreign involvement.[3] The Danish National Police reported on September 25 that it briefly closed the Aalborg Airport on the northern tip of Denmark's Zealand Island, which the Danish military also uses, due to unidentified drone activity.[4] Danish Security Intelligence Service Director General Finn Borch Andersen stated on September 25 that Denmark cannot yet name a specific actor behind the drone activity, but that these incidents resemble a model of hybrid warfare seen elsewhere in Europe and that Denmark assesses a high risk of Russian sabotage in Denmark.[5] Swedish authorities confirmed on September 25 multiple drone sightings near a Swedish naval base in Karlstrona, Sweden.[6] European officials have not directly accused Russia of violating European airspace in these specific instances — but the recent uptick in hostile drone activity while Russia continues aerial incursions and posturing against NATO states is notable and strongly suggests that Russia is also behind the unidentified drone incidents.[7] ISW continues to assess that Russia is pursuing a campaign to test NATO air defenses and political will as part of a broader effort to collect actionable intelligence that Russia may then apply to a potential future conflict against NATO.[8]
Ukraine's European allies continue to respond to increasing Russian aggression against Europe. European defense ministers met on September 26 to discuss the establishment of a “drone” wall along the European border with Russia in Ukraine in order to detect, track, and intercept drones that violate European airspace and agreed to an approach that covers air, sea, and land.[9] The EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius stated that Russia is testing the EU and NATO and that the response must be “firm, united, and immediate” and that the EU’s immediate priorities are to improve the EU’s drone detection, tracking, and interception capabilities.[10] Kubilius stated that attendees included the defense ministers of Denmark, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania; Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal; EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas; representatives from Hungary and Slovakia; and unspecified NATO officials.
Russian officials continue efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine and defensive measures against Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on September 25 and claimed that the collective West provoked the war in Ukraine and that NATO and the European Union (EU) declared a “real war” on Russia through Ukraine and are “directly participating in” this war.[11] Russian officials have repeatedly portrayed the West as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine in order to avoid blame and justify further rhetorical and kinetic provocations against its European neighbors.[12] Russian Ambassador to France Alexei Meshkov claimed on September 26 that Russia would consider it war if NATO countries shot down Russian aircraft “allegedly” violating the airspace of member countries and accused Europe of failing to provide evidence that Russia has been involved in the recent drone incursions in Europe.[13] Meshkov did not mention that Russian penetrations of NATO airspace with military drones and aircraft are themselves Russian acts of war against NATO to which NATO has so far chosen not to respond by shooting down Russian aircraft. Russian officials have also repeatedly sought to deter European officials from taking defensive military actions against Russian provocations as part of Russia's ongoing effort to push the limit of what provocations NATO is willing to absorb as an “acceptable” escalation.[14] Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov and Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova also continued to downplay US President Donald Trump's September 23, 2025, statement in support of Ukraine and Ukraine's ability to retake occupied areas by force.[15]
The United States is reportedly considering lifting existing restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use US-produced weapons to strike legitimate military targets located in Russian territory. A Ukrainian official and a senior US official told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on September 26 that Ukrainian President Zelensky asked US President Trump during their September 23 meeting for additional unspecified long-range missiles and approval to use these missiles against military targets in Russian territory.[16] Trump reportedly replied that he does not oppose this idea but did not commit to lifting these restrictions. Zelensky recently confirmed reports that he also asked Trump for US-produced Tomahawk cruise missiles during the September 23 meeting.[17]
Ukraine created a new Unmanned Air Defense Systems service. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the new service on September 26 and stated that the service is subordinate to the Ukrainian Air Force and will deploy units equipped with interceptor drones to combat Russian Shahed-type drones.[18] The command-and-control relationships between these Air Force drone interceptor units and tactical Ground Forces units who also have organic tactical air defenses remain unclear.
Gasoline shortages continue in Russia and occupied Ukraine due to repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Sources in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne on September 27 that the SBU conducted a long-range drone strike against the Tyngovatovo Oil Pumping Station in Konar, Chuvash Republic, approximately 1,000 kilometers from the international border.[1] The SBU sources stated that a drone struck the pumping station and caused a fire, suspending oil transportation through the facility. Chuvash Republic Head Oleg Nikolaev said on September 27 that Ukrainian forces attempted a drone strike against an oil pumping station near Konar and admitted that there is minor damage to the facility and that the facility suspended operations.[2] On September 26, Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov called on Lipetsk Oblast residents to remain calm despite reports of fuel shortages in the oblast and claimed that the shortages are due to logistical difficulties in loading fuel from some refineries.[3] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that Lipetsk Oblast residents are complaining about high prices for AI-95 gasoline and that prices reached approximately $3.70 a gallon.[4] The Russian government has historically used subsidies to artificially depress and stabilize domestic gas prices, although recent Ukrainian drone strikes appear to be complicating this policy.[5] The average cost of gasoline in Russia was approximately $2.15 per gallon in September 2023 and $2.40 per gallon in September 2024, and prices have largely stayed below $3.00 a gallon since February 2023.[6] Astra reported that gas stations are starting to sell fuel with fuel cards and that some stations in Moscow, Leningrad, Ryazan, and several Far Eastern oblasts are limiting fuel purchases to 10- to 20-liter increments or are only selling diesel. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on September 27 that the Ukrainian strikes against the Russian oil industry are having limited though painful consequences and that fuel shortages are particularly severe in the Far East, frontline areas of Belgorod Oblast, and occupied Crimea, which is entirely reliant on external oil supplies.[7] The milblogger claimed that gas prices are increasing significantly in Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov, Lipetsk, and Tula oblasts and Krasnodar and Stavropol krais.
Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including through the purchase of US weapons. The Estonian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on September 27 that Estonia will contribute 10 million euros (roughly $11.7 million) to Ukraine through NATO's Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine.[8] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on September 27 that Israel supplied Ukraine with a Patriot system in August 2025 and that Ukraine will receive two Patriot air defense systems in Fall 2025.[9]
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova absurdly blamed Ukraine on September 26 for the September 9 to 10 Russian drone incursion in Poland and the September 13 Russian drone incursion in Romania. Zakharova continued to deny Russian involvement in the drone incursions over Poland and Romania and claimed that Ukraine was responsible and orchestrated the incursions in order to frame Russia and provoke a war between NATO and Russia.[10] Zakharova claimed that a third world war will break out imminently if someone confirms Ukraine's alleged involvement in false flag operations in Romania and Poland.[11] Polish and Romanian authorities previously identified the drones that violated their airspaces as Russian.[12]
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating within NATO airspace. The Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on September 27 that Danish Defense Command observed drones near multiple Danish military facilities, including Skrydstrup Air Base and the barracks of the Jutland Dragoon Regiment in Holstebro.[13] The Vilnius Public Security Service reported on September 26 that three unidentified drones disrupted flights at the Vilnius Airport twice on the afternoon of September 26.[14] Finnish outlet Yle reported on September 27 that an unknown entity piloted a drone over the Valajaskoski Power Plant in Rovaniemi, Lapland, in northern Finland.[15]