Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

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THE REAL STORY: HOW NATO ENDED RUSSIAS ESTONIAN AIR INCURSIONS

On the 19th September 2025 between 0958 and 1011hrs Russia carried out another, in a series of air incursions into Estonian airspace. They were technically minor infractions but the last one lasted almost 12 minutes, and in the context of tensions with NATO – largely created by Russia itself, it was just another dangerous move in the never ending game of Baltic chess.

The F-35’s closed from behind – unseen – and identified the aircraft using their optical scanner before pulling away. The Gripens commander then used the emergency radio frequency to tell the Russians, “You are under our control. Return to Russian air space immediately”.

At first confused the Russian pilots turned one after another and departed Estonian air space, back into international space and continued their journey to Kaliningrad. Who would like to have been in the briefing room after that escapade?

https://themilitaryanalyst.com/2025/11/13/the-real-story-how-nato-ended-russias-estonian-air-incursions/

KABOOM! Novorossiysk on fire.

Kyiv Independent (14 Nov):

Russian oil terminal in Novorossiysk on fire following reported Ukrainian drone strikes

“Ukrainian drones struck the Russian port city of Novorossiysk on Nov. 14, damaging an oil terminal and sparking a large fire, multiple Russian Telegram channels reported.

The attack hit the Sheskharis oil complex, where infrastructure facilities were damaged and a blaze broke out.

The facility is a major oil export terminal that serves as the endpoint for pipelines run by Russia’s state-run Transneft, the world’s largest oil pipeline company.

Russian state media RIA Novosti also resported that a civilian vessel in the port was also hit during the mass UAV strike, leaving three crew members injured.“

Wikipedia, on the oil terminal just struck in Novorossissyk:

“The united complex of Sheskharis and Grushevaya Balka oil terminals became the largest in Europe and the most efficient in USSR… In 2012 Sheckharis and Grushevaya merged into united enterprise ‘Sheskharis oil terminal’.

By 2012 Sheskharis oil terminal accounted for more than 30% of Russian oil export. The terminal has 3 docks of 200 meters total length.

Berth No.1 is the deepest, it can handle vessels with deadweight up to 250,000 tons and 19-meters draft, it transfers only oil cargo with 10,000 tons per hour capacity.

Berth No.2 is 14.5 meters deep, it can take vessels up to 90,000 deadweight and 13.9 m draft, its capacity range from 90 up to 6,000 tons per hour.

Berth No.3 accepts ships up to 33,000 DWT, draft alongside is 10.9 m, it processes mainly naphtha residue and diesel (800—900) tons per hour.

Berth No.4 serves bunkering vessels up to 3.6 DWT. Berths No.5 and No.8 transfer oil derivatives and accept tankers up to 12,000 tons DWT.

Berths No.6 and No.7 are able to take tankers up to 65,000 tons DWT, draft alongside is 13 m. Sheskharis oil terminal can simultaneously process 7 tankers.”

Oil markets react in the short term to strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, especially the four big Western export terminals for Urals grade crude (Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Ust Luga and Primorsk) - but fundamentally, enough replacement supply is available on the market. Prices will rise as Russia’s oil infrastructure get’s destroyed, but they won’t go crazy high - because President Trump has masterfully prepared the battlefield.

OilPrice.com (Nov 13, 2025):

Oil Prices Jump as Ukraine Hits One of Russia’s Biggest Export Hubs

“Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Friday as markets responded to renewed attacks by Ukraine against energy infrastructure in Russia. A Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, one of the country’s most important oil export hubs, triggered renewed fears of supply disruptions in what has been a very bearish market of late.

At the time of writing, WTI had risen 1.52% to $59.58 while Brent was trading at $63.88.

The attacks damaged a ship, nearby apartment buildings, and an oil depot, injuring three crew members aboard the vessel, Russian regional authorities confirmed.

Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles. The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”

If Ukraine continues to press its deep-strike campaign and Russia faces rolling or compounding infrastructure losses, the supply risk to global oil markets could rise meaningfully.

Russian oil supply is being further suppressed by renewed U.S. sanctions, most notably new restrictions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Nov. 21, prohibiting transactions with the companies as Washington increases pressure on Moscow.

The broader oil market outlook, however, remains bearish (headed toward lower prices) with U.S. crude inventories rising and multiple warnings of a severe glut in 2026

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