Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
AI says and I agree>>>
Short answer (best estimate): roughly 1,000–4,000 Tomahawk missiles still exist in U.S. hands today; a sensible mid-range guess is ~2,000–3,000.
WHS ESD
+3
Missile Threat
+3
WTOP News
+3
Why that range?
Different sources count different things. Some tallies quote cumulative production (much higher), others count missiles in service or in storage, and still others report how many are plausibly available for transfer — those are different numbers.
The Heritage Foundation
Recent public estimates: CSIS and related analysts say only on the order of ~1,000 Tomahawks are clearly available for transfer (i.e., readily reassignable from stockpiles). That sets a firm lower bound on “available” inventory.
Missile Threat
Other think tanks/media have reported larger totals (heritage/press estimates placing inventory figures in the ~4,000 range for recent years). Those higher numbers likely include missiles in ships, long-term storage, and some older variants. That gives the upper bound.
WTOP News
+1
Production and attrition matter: annual production in recent years has been very low (dozens–low-hundreds per year) while usage in conflicts (and transfers/expended rounds) has been significant — both push the live inventory downward over time. Official sustainment/contract reports and the TACTOM acquisition documents illustrate limited production and sustainment constraints.
Reuters
+1
How I’d state it if you need a single number to cite:
~2,500 (±1,500) — i.e., between about 1,000 and 4,000, with the center of that band near 2–3k given production rates, observed expenditures, and published estimates.
busek_the_Buffoon showed up last night on a zeep thread, priggishly moralizing, as is his wont.
I posted to him that he and his Kraut pals have coughed up something like 6,000 Euros in extra energy costs over the last 4 years, because Germans stupid.
He sat around wringing his hands over the cruel invasion [Europeeins’ FAFO].
What a dimwitted Buffoon.
Gads! They’re STILL fantasizing about the “game-changer” long range SlowmoHawks.
“It really complicates Russian defense planning, with their limited number of Air Defense systems.”
Moscow and Moscow region is packed with air defense systems. Many have recently been robbed from “the provinces”. Due to Moscow being the jewel in the crown, where the elites live. Where the Kremlin is. Where the Rooski central government emanates from.
Moscow and St Petersburg lord over all & call the shots. They could care less about the rest of Russians, just so long as they produce oil and gas. And serve in the army.
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Geolocated footage published on October 31 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk).[1] Additional geolocated footage published on October 30 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Pokrovsk and in eastern Rih (immediately east of Pokrovsk) after what ISW assesses to be an infiltration mission.[2] ISW assesses that these infiltration missions did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA). A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on October 29 that Russian forces are infiltrating Pokrovsk in groups of five to 10 people and that Pokrovsk is mainly a contested “gray zone.”[3] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are advancing within Pokrovsk, including near the Pokrovsk railway station in central Pokrovsk, and that elements of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly known as the 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are advancing in Myrnohrad.[4] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces are advancing further in Pokrovsk and into eastern Myrnohrad and near Rodynske.[5] Another Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 41st CAA (CMD) advanced west of Pokrovsk toward Hryshyne and advanced to the M-30 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway.[6] The porous nature of the frontline and pervasiveness of drones in this area continues to complicate and obscure the tactical picture in Pokrovsk, and ISW will provide an updated assessment as the situation becomes clearer.
The Pentagon approved the provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 31, but the final decision remains with US President Donald Trump. CNN, citing three US and European officials, reported on October 31 that the Pentagon determined that providing Tomahawks to Ukraine would not negatively impact US stockpiles.[7] The officials noted that the decision to actually send Ukraine the missiles rests with Trump. ISW continues to assess that providing US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would parallel Russia's regular use of long-range cruise and ballistic missiles against Ukraine and reduce this important Russian advantage.[8] Russia regularly uses missiles comparable to the Tomahawk, such as Kh-series and Kalibr cruise, Kinzhal aeroballistic, and Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles that Russia uses in its nightly strikes against Ukraine.[9] Russia has used most of these missile types since 2022 and began using Iskander-K cruise missiles in 2023. The Tomahawk missiles’ long-range and larger payload would enable the Ukrainian military to inflict substantial damage on key Russian military assets located deep within Russian territory, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, and the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast, from which Russia sorties the strategic bombers that fire air-launched cruise missiles at Ukraine.
Russia and Belarus continue to threaten Europe with the future deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on October 31 that Russia will deploy the Oreshnik missile system on combat duty to Belarus in December 2025.[10] Kremlin officials have claimed as recently as October 29 that Russia and Belarus do not feel “safe” given European “Russophobic statements” and supposed militaristic aspirations and hysteria.[11] ISW continues to assess that Russia is using the Oreshnik as part of a reflexive control campaign and ongoing nuclear saber rattling aimed at undermining Western resolve to militarily support Ukraine.[12] Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans in December 2024 to deploy the Oreshnik missile systems to Belarus in 2025.[13]
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian air defense and energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian Navy reported, and geolocated footage indicates, that Ukrainian forces conducted a Neptune missile strike against the Oryol Thermal Power Plant in Oryol Oblast and the Novobryansk substation in Bryansk Oblast overnight on October 30 to 31.[14] The Ukrainian Navy reported that both facilities supply power to Russian military enterprises in Oryol Oblast. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on October 31 that USF elements, in cooperation with the Russian Chernaya Iskra insurgency group, disabled a Russian Buk-M3 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system and NEBO-U early warning radar system in Rostov Oblast on the night of September 27 to 28.[15]
Russian forces have repeatedly struck Ukraine with nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles since August 2025, in apparent violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha told Reuters on October 31 that Russian forces recently began using nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles against Ukraine, the first public acknowledgement that Russian forces have employed these missiles against Ukraine.[16] Sybiha noted that the missile's range violates the INF Treaty, which bans ground-launched missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Russian Oreshnik missiles also notably violate the INF Treaty.[17] A military source told Reuters that Russian forces launched a 9M729 missile against an unspecified target in Ukraine at a range of over 1,200 kilometers on October 5. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Russian forces launched Novator missiles against Ukraine twice in 2022 and 23 times since August 2025. Russia's use of the missile comes against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcements of Russian nuclear weapons tests of the Burevestnik missile and Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle.[18]
A German court convicted several citizens of conspiring to commit acts of sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russia, and Lithuanian authorities closed the Vilnius Airport due to more aerial incursions from Belarusian airspace. German outlet Deutsche Welle (DW) reported on October 30 that a German court convicted a dual German-Russian citizen and two other German citizens of espionage and conspiring to commit acts of sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russia.[19] DW noted that the dual German citizen admitted to fighting in a pro-Russian militia in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda announced on October 31 that authorities closed the Vilnius Airport after observing an unspecified number of balloons flying toward the airport from Belarusian airspace.[20] This incident marks the most recent instance of balloon disruptions near the Vilnius Airport in October 2025.[21] Lithuania recently extended its closure of land border crossings with Belarus in response to the incidents.[22] ISW assesses that the aerial incursions into Belarus are very likely linked to Russia's ongoing Phase Zero informational and psychological conditions-setting phase — to gauge NATO's responsiveness and gather actionable intelligence in preparation for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[23]
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently appointed former First Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Vasily Osmakov as Deputy Minister of Defense. Belousov announced Osmakov’s appointment on October 31 at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Defense Ministers in Kazakhstan.[24] Russian state outlet RBK reported on October 31 that Osmakov became an official in the Ministry of Industry and Trade in 2004 and first deputy minister in 2021.[25] Sources told RBK that the Russian MoD is appointing Osmakov to replace Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin due to Fomin’s supposed retirement. ISW has not observed additional statements about Fomin retiring.
more + maps: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31-2025/
moron
Moscow and St. Petersburg have no indigenous ability to produce oil or gas, they rely on the netherlands to supply them, so please pull more AD to those regions. Perhaps they can keep them warm and the lights on😂
Patriarch Kirill promised to powerfully protect our refineries in a few weeks. Secret prayers will be used A source in the Church told us about this.
“We have long been trying to protect refineries in different regions with the help of prayers, sending special crosses and icons to key enterprises. Unfortunately, there is no great effect from these actions yet, God has not yet heard our requests. The Kremlin has expressed dissatisfaction with this situation several times. And we decided to take drastic steps,” he said. According to the channel's interlocutor, the first of these steps will be the holding of special, especially powerful prayers. “We (our Patriarch has already promised to do this) will perform special, secret prayers, which, in principle, can only be said by the Patriarch and a few other representatives of the Church. We rarely go to such an extreme measure, it is quite unpopular for reasons that I cannot name. But the situation is such that you will have to,” he explained.
If such prayers do not help, the Church will take the second step - return to the idea of holding religious processions near the most important refineries in Russia. Although, according to a close associate of Patriarch Kirill, “this can be dangerous for both the clergy and the laity.” “Do not hesitate, we will powerfully protect Russian refineries, the effect will be visible in a few weeks. The government can speed up the process if it hears the Church and begins to provide us with gasoline and other fuel out of turn and in full (we wrote about such a requirement of Patriarch Kirill - ed.). So far, the authorities have fulfilled their promise to resolve this issue only in some regions of the country. Very sad,” the source added.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/6362
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASGgn8bNQuA
.. or a desire for more fuel that can be sold for extra money.
Total mobilization in Russia may begin on February 1
“I received very good news from those who make decisions in Russia. There will be total mobilization, which I have been calling for for a long time, because the war next year will be total. I ask you to write - such mobilization is likely to begin on February 1, 2026,” Alexandr Gelevich said.
The Kremlin did not confirm this information to us. The Ministry of Defense says that they do not know anything about the date of February 1, as well as whether the mobilization will be total. But “certain mobilization and even demobilization processes” at the beginning of next year are not ruled out.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/6359
Never Interfere With an Enemy While He's in the Process of Destroying Himself
Gerasimov gave Putin another reason why it is necessary to start a large mobilization
in Russia This was reported to us by a source close to the Chief of the General Staff. “Valery Vasilyevich made a report to Vladimir Vladimirovich. There he provided new information about our successes at the front, including in Krasnoarmeysk. Unfortunately, the advance of troops is accompanied by quite tangible losses. Therefore, the need for serious, large-scale mobilization is growing. Valery Vasilyevich asks to at least start preparing for it,” he said.
According to the military, there is no response from the president to this request yet. At the same time, it is known: Gerasimov recently asked Putin to carry out at least two serious waves of mobilization. Vladimir Vladimirovich promised to consider this proposal by the end of the year. According to our data, as part of the first wave, the head of the General Staff asks to mobilize from 300 to 350 thousand people.
Russia has been predicted a severe fuel crisis. It can last from a month to six
If enemy strikes continue to damage oil refining facilities, then a protracted fuel crisis may begin in a number of Russian regions. Supplies of gasoline and diesel may be limited for a period of 1 to 6 months, sources say. At the same time, the government says that negotiations are already underway on the possibility of importing fuel in case of a severe shortage. Preparations are also already underway for a new format of fuel transportation. For example, from China.
BS - all that, including the AI, are just guesses based on assumptions - the real numbers are classified. So what you conclude from guesses based on assumptions is just plain hokum.
The problem is only going to get worse as more refineries, depots, and pump stations are hit and winter strikes
But it would be rich to see the gas station with nukes have to buy back from China fuel at a premium made from oil from Russia sold at a loss
Pitin remains a master economist 😎
Gott mit Uns, or perhaps not
How can it be dangerous if they have “special” prayers, and where exactly are those in the Bible. Time to pull out the holy hand grenades 😂🤡
the holy hand grenade
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOrgLj9lOwk
More likely that neither the Patriarch nor the Putin have not heard the Lord’s “requests” about loving the neighbors and not coveting their stuff or killing them to get it.
As it is now, apparently the Russians are doing to others as they want done unto themselves, so Ukrainians are returning the favor.
However, attitude adjustments don’t come easily for the soviet Russian mir. Much more suffering than usual is required.
Sometimes we are chosen to be another person’s karma and, for this act of Christian charity, we should help the Putin and the Russians suffer however much is required for them to change.
yes
The government can speed up the process if it hears the Church and begins to provide us with gasoline and other fuel out of turn and in full
—
They forgot to ask that GPS GLONASS be turned on so they can find their way to the refineries they plan to protect ...
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