Should You Move While You Can, Or When You Must?

This gives an extreme advantage to those few who move first, long before they must. The financial advantage for first movers is equally extreme.

Moving is a difficult decision, so we hesitate. But when the window to do so closes, it's too late. We always think we have all the time in the world to ponder, calculate and explore, and then things change and the options we once had are gone for good.

Moving to a new locale is difficult for those of us who are well-established in the place we call home. Add in a house we love, jobs/work, kids in school, a parent living with us and all the emotional attachments to friends, extended family, colleagues and favorite haunts, and for many (and likely most) people, moving is out of the question.

Many of us have fond memories of moving when we were in our late teens or early 20s--everything we owned fit in the backseat and trunk of a beaten up old car, and off we went.

Once you put down roots in a home, work/enterprise, schools, neighborhood and networks, it's a herculean task to move. Moving to another state or province isn't just a matter of the physical movement of possessions and buying / renting a new dwelling, itself an arduous process; the transfer of medical and auto insurance, finding new dentists and doctors, opening local bank/credit union accounts, obtaining local business licenses and a staggering list of institutions and enterprises that require an address change is complicated and time-consuming.

Knowing this, I don't ask this question lightly: Should You Move While You Can, Or When You Must? The question is consequential because the window in which we still have options can slam shut with little warning.

The origin of the question will be visible to those who have read my blog posts in 2021 on systemic fragility, our dependence on long, brittle supply chains, the vulnerabilities created by these dependencies and my polite (I hope) suggestions to fashion not just a Plan B for temporary disruptions but a Plan C for permanent disruptions.

My new book Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States is a result of realities few are willing to face: the extreme inequality we now have in the U.S. leads to social collapse. That's the lesson of history. So to believe as if collapse is impossible is to ignore the evidence that social collapse is inevitable when inequality reaches extremes. Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies.

Social collapse has consequences, and so we have to ask: where do we want to be in the vast human herd when social order unravels?

My new book also addresses the transition that's obvious but easily denied: we've transitioned from an era of abundance to an era of scarcity. There are many historical examples of what happens as scarcity diminishes living standards and puts increasing stress on individuals, families, communities and nations.

There are ways to adapt to scarcity (that's the point of my book) but nation-states and the elites who run them are optimized for abundance, not scarcity, so they lack the means to adapt to scarcity. Their default setting to is keep pursuing a return to higher consumption ("growth") by increasingly extreme means--for example, printing trillions of dollars and giving it to wealthy elites and corporations, and printing additional trillions to give away as bread and circuses (stimulus) to the masses.

There is no historical evidence that this vast, endless creation of currency is consequence-free or successful.

This delusional pursuit of endless "growth" that is no longer possible due to resource depletion and soaring costs of extraction, transport, etc. also leads to collapse. This is the modern-day equivalent of squandering the last resources available on ever-more elaborate (and completely unproductive) temples in the hopes of appeasing the gods of "growth."

As I also detail in the book, the status quo is fantastically wasteful and ineffective. It now takes 20-25 years to build a single bridge or tunnel, and each project is billions of dollars over budget, yet we're assured that the entire nation will seamlessly and painlessly transition away from hydrocarbon fuels to alternative energy in 20-25 years.

Never mind that this would require building a new nuclear plant or equivalent every month for the next 20 years; skeptics are just naysayers.

While a successful transition to a degrowth economy and society is certainly physically possible, the current status quo lacks the will, structure, leadership or desire to manage such a transition.

While no one is entirely independent of long supply chains and energy-intensive industrial economies, the lower one's dependency and one's exposure to the risks of social disorder, the better off one will be. Put another way, the greater one's self-reliance and independence from global supply chains, the lower the impact should things break down.

The closer one is to local sources of energy, fresh water, food, etc., the lower the likelihood of losing all access to these essentials.

The wealthiest few hedge their risks by having one or more homes they can escape to if urban life breaks down. When risks rise, the wealthy start buying rural homes sight unseen for double the price locals paid a few months earlier.

Here's the problem: roughly 81% of Americans live in urban zones (270 million people), and around 19% (60 million people) live in rural areas.

About 31% of urban residents live in dense urban cores, about 25% live in suburban counties and the remaining 24% live in urban clusters and metropolitan areas--smaller cities, etc.

Rural regions have plenty of land but relatively few dwellings due to the low population density. Much of the land is owned by government agencies, corporations or large landowners, so a relatively small percentage is available for housing. Many rural economies have stagnated for decades, so the housing stock has not grown by much and older homes have deteriorated due to being abandoned or poorly maintained. Few building contractors survived the stagnation and so finding crews to build a new home is also non-trivial.

So when the wealthiest few rush out to buy second or third homes in desirable rural areas in Idaho, Montana, Utah, Colorado, North Carolina, etc., they find a very restricted supply of homes available. This generates a bidding war for the relatively few homes considered acceptable and prices skyrocket, pricing out locals who soon resent the wealthy newcomers' financial power and fear the inevitable rise of the political and commercial power their wealth can buy. (Cough, billgates, cough.)

At present, few anticipate urban America becoming a dicey place to live and own a home. But inequality and the hollowing out of the economy by globalization and financialization has left cities entirely dependent on diesel fueled trucks to deliver virtually everything.

This is also true of rural communities, of course, but some rural areas still produce energy and food, and given the lower population density, these communities are less dependent on global supply chains and are therefore more self-sufficient. Rural households have more opportunities to raise animals, grow vegetables, etc., and more opportunities to have supportive relationships with neighbors who actually produce something tangible and essential.

Dependence is a matter of scale: if you can get by on 5 gallons of gasoline a month, you're much more likely to put your hands on enough fuel to get by than if you need a minimum of 50 gallons of fuel to survive. The same is true of food, fresh water and other essentials: the less you need, the more you supply yourself, the lower your vulnerability to supply disruptions.

Lower population densities lend themselves to greater self-sufficiency / resilience and to community cohesion. Roving mobs are less likely to form simply because the low density makes such mobs difficult to assemble.

As I explain in my book, social cohesion is a combination of civic virtue, shared purpose, agency (having a stake in the local economy and a say in decisions which affect everyone) and moral legitimacy, i.e. a community that isn't divided into a self-serving elite that owns the vast majority of the wealth, capital and political power and a relatively powerless majority (i.e. debt-serfs and tax donkeys).

In my analysis, social cohesion in most urban zones has already eroded to the point of no return. The tattered remnants will crumble with one swift kick.

The conventional view is the urban populace will continue to grow at the expense of rural regions, a trend that's been in place for hundreds of years. But this trend exactly parallels the rise of hydrocarbon energy. Large cities existed long before hydrocarbon energy, but these cities arose and fell depending on the availability of essential resources within reach.

Imperial Rome, for example, likely had 1 million residents at the apex of its power, residents who were largely dependent on grain grown in North African colonies and shipped across the Mediterranean to Rome's port of Ostia.

Once those wheat-exporting colonies were lost, Rome's population fell precipitously, reaching a nadir of perhaps 10,000 residents living amidst the ruins of a once great metropolis.

More recently, economic and social shifts hollowed out many city cores in the 1970s as residents and jobs moved to the suburbs.

A reversal of this trend in favor of small cities/towns and rural areas may already be gathering momentum under the radar.

All this is abstract until the attractions of city living fade and economic vitality declines to the point of civic and financial bankruptcy. Cities have cycles of expansion, decay and decline just like societies and economies, and it behooves us to monitor the fragility, dependency and risk of the place we inhabit.

At nadirs, homes and buildings that were once worth a fortune are abandoned, or their value drops to a fraction of its former value.

Putting these dynamics together, the problem boils down to a systemic scarcity of housing in attractive, productive rural towns and regions and a massive oversupply of urban residents who may decide to move once urban zones unravel.

Let's assume that a mere 5% of urban residents decamp for rural regions. Given that there are about 130 million households in the U.S. and 81% of that total is 105 million households, 5% is 5.25 million households. Given that the number of rural communities that have all the desirable characteristics is not that large, we can estimate that it might be difficult for even 500,000 urban households to relocate to their first choice, never mind 5 million.

This gives an extreme advantage to those few who move first, long before they must. The financial advantage for first movers is equally extreme, as they can still sell their urban homes for a great deal more money than they will fetch once conditions deteriorate. (The value of homes can drop to zero, as Detroit has shown.)

Those few who decide to join the early movers even though the difficulties are many have all the advantages. Those who wait until conditions slip off a cliff may find their once valuable home has lost most or all of its value and the communities they would have chosen are out of reach financially.

Most people reckon they have plenty of time to act--decades, or at least many years. The problem with systemic fragility was aptly described by Seneca: "Increases are of sluggish growth but the way to ruin is rapid."

My own expectation is a self-reinforcing unraveling that gathers momentum to breaking points by 2024-25, only a few years away. Rather than fix the systemic problems of inequality and scarcity, the status quo's expedient fixes (printing trillions out of thin air and hoping there will be no adverse consequences from distributing free money to financiers and bread and circuses) will only accelerate the unraveling. There may not be as much time as we think.

New readers pondering these dynamics may find value in one of the more widely read of my essays, The Art of Survival, Taoism and the Warring States (June 27, 2008) which discusses the importance of being a helpful and productive member of a tight-knit community and the futility of having an isolated "bug-out" cabin as Plan C.

The vista of solid ground stretching endlessly to the horizon may turn out to be a mirage, and the cliff edge is closer than we imagine.

Moving is a very stressful event: it's usually limited by time and money. You never realize how much stuff you have until you have to pack and move it.

Avoid moving between the months of May and August, if you can. Most especially, do not move between last weekend in June, and the 4th of July holiday if you plan to retain your sanity and your hair. Companies get overbooked, and the renter that is bringing in the equipment you'll be picking up is going to extend their rental.

If you are moving, make an initial plan AT LEAST six months in advance. If you are renting a truck / trailer / container, make your reservation AT LEAST four months in advance. Reservations can be changed, but if you don't make a reservation, the schedule will fill up and you won't have equipment when you need it.

DISCLAIMER: I have been in the do-it-yourself moving and storage business for 10 years.

That’s why we chose AZ...Being a CA native, I found AZ weather to be very similar to S. CA...We’re not in the low desert of Phoenix, but high country where it’s significantly cooler in summer. And by the looks of what is happening, it looks like a lot of people are thinking the exact same thing.

We had plans to go to the northwest, but as the years rolled by before bailing out, we decided against the cold/snow of the northwest. For us it turns out it was a *great* decision.

I use to gauge it to never moving further than a days drive from family which worked for awhile. Later it didn’t matter...but now I’m just 45 minutes from them...on purpose.

There is no safe harbor in the coming storm. But some will be safer than others.

The best investment in chaos is family and friends. Money in the bank is worthless.

Move when you can.

If you wait for moving when you must, lots of others must move too, and it creates a disaster as far as finding a place, finances, logistics of getting household goods moved, finding a new job, doctor, etc.

Yup. Don’t wait for the enemy to design your strategy. All they offer you is defeat or surrender.
Moving is hard enough without having to deal with limited options.
The only truly good time to move is the one you see in hindsight and you can’t go there.

Seneca: “Increases are of sluggish growth but the way to ruin is rapid.”

I like his quote. Here’s a few in the same vein:

Be careful, or your hearts will be weighed down with carousing, drunkenness and the anxieties of life, and that day will close on you suddenly like a trap.—Jesus

A little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to rest and poverty will come upon you like a bandit and scarcity liked an armed man.—Solomon

With silver mines, recruiting grounds and a General of real genius...he thought himself invulnerable. In one battle he lost all three.—Auden

I moved 10 years ago to live more of a self sufficient life and I’m still not fully set up but getting closer. I’ve never had 5-6 digits of money to put into things. Been chipping away a few hundred dollars at a time.

We were a day late but not dollar short on buying a fixer upper house on two occasions so we ended up buying a hunk of woods and started cutting trees for a driveway and spot to build a little house. Had phone installed just as house/cabin was done. Couple of years later, I had the easement cut and supplies gathered up to get a pole and meter installed and run electric service from it to the buildings which I did myself. No permits or having to hire contractors here.

We have four full time neighbors/families, with three being related to each other. Everyone else around us, including either side of us, lives somewhere else and uses their places here as a weekend retreat and hunting season spot.

Twenty miles from three different small towns but we do have a Dollar General going in a few miles away. There’s one in each of those three towns too plus grocery stores, convenient stores, auto parts stores, banks and two have walmarts. If this new one sells beer they may make it. Will probably carry a lot of groceries, some produce and meat which a lot of them are doing now.

Anybody who think our country suffers from “extreme inequality” is ignorant and probably stupid. Not only are they are woefully ignorant about what life is like around the world, they are woefully ignorant about what life was like around more than 100 years ago.

Anybody who does genealogy can read the census data and see how many people lived in boarding houses, how many people rented rooms. Anyone lucky enough to have farm land and a couple of sons could rent out one of the sons to a neighbor. Life was tough then for most people. There was no help other than family or church, no welfare, no section 8 housing.

In my personal experience I once lived in a house in the Gatsby area. It was large, about 10,000 sq ft and one wing had 11 tiny rooms for live-in help. There were two tiny bathtubs, half the size of the tubs that were in each bedroom in the main house. There was no heat in the servants wing but every bedroom in the main house had a fireplace.

The people complaining about inequality in this country should be people paying 50% of their income in taxes not those who are collecting $50,000 a year in government handouts.

“I moved farther away from the shitehole of Denver last year. So far, so good.”

Awesome. Left Jeffco 14 years ago, moved west and moved further west 3 years ago. Two great moves, each served us well and last move looks better all the time. Aging modifies desires and needs.

The people complaining about inequality in this country

The uniqueness of the American Experiment was the ability to move up and down the social/economic ladder.

Does that exist anywhere else?

“There are fewer affordable housing options than just a few years ago.”

The local (Knoxville area) real estate website we’ve used for years has changed a lot. When we started looking seriously, the total number of single-family properties for sale showed up as over 22,000. That was in 2010. Now when we log in it’s down to 8,000. That’s before drilling down with the criteria that you want. Basically, there are zero properties that fit our criteria — cost, square footage, cities, etc. — when we used to get query results of around 50.

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