Replies

Wuhan Virus -
Many of the various categories I’m following have now integrated effects from this pandemic, but I’m keeping them separate for clarity. Check numerous FR threads for more specific corona virus threads. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

Japan continuing to lose control - Prime Minister of Japan to declare State of Emergency this evening. State of Emergency measures to target seven prefectures in Japan for a period of one month.

University of Washington’s IHME model has been the source of much discussion. Initially projecting millions of deaths, last revision it projected a little over 81K. The model’s failings include over estimating the numbers of hospitalizations by a factor of 4 to 5. If revisions keep dropping the numbers, the medical ‘experts’ will be hard pressed to continue the draconian shut down measures.

UK Prime Minister admitted to intensive care after his symptoms worsen. Latest reports he is stable and not on a ventilator.

N Korea -
Various observers note that airborne intelligence platforms are flying almost 24/7 along the SK/NK border area. Expecting more missile launches.

Syria -
With most of its hospitals damaged or destroyed, Syria is facing a rampant corona virus explosion. However, at present, the death rate is far below that from the years of combat. What it is doing is causing troops to avoid operations is areas thought to be infected, slowing ground operations substantially. Artillery and airstrikes are the primary attack means. Even ISIS is warning fighters to take precautions.

Iran -
The USS Bataan and other U.S. Navy vessels of its amphibious task force entered the Persian Gulf over the weekend.

Somalia -
The U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) carried out three separate strikes against members of the Al-Shabaab terror group on Sunday, killing eight members of the group.

China -
Zoom teleconferencing app has been “mistakenly” routing user data through China, the Silicon Valley company admitted last Friday evening. This has been a very common “mistake” lately, allowing Chinese access to potentially sensitive discussions by various entities using the app during the shelter at home portions of the corona virus pandemic. Meanwhile, Facebook allows China to flood FB with propaganda ads while failing to crackdown on the fake information.

CW2 -
The public is starting to chafe at the continuing disruption to daily lives compounded by increased totalitarianistic regulations and law enforcement. This is contributing to a further fraying of social order already ragged due to contentious politics. I expect to see increasing civil disobedience next week if the Armageddon of corona virus deaths doesn’t pan out this week.

"Facebook allows China to flood FB with propaganda ads while failing to crackdown on the fake information."
I'm shocked. NOT!

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

China - Zoom teleconferencing app has been “mistakenly” routing user data through China, the Silicon Valley company admitted last Friday evening. This has been a very common “mistake” lately, allowing Chinese access to potentially sensitive discussions by various entities using the app during the shelter at home portions of the corona virus pandemic.

I wonder how many deep state democrats were paid off to allow this 'mistake' to happen?

Wuhan Virus -
Many of the various categories I’m following have now integrated effects from this pandemic, but I’m keeping them separate for clarity. Check numerous FR threads for more specific corona virus threads. We are entering uncharted waters as far as this pandemic goes. . . . . .

IMHE models continue to drop their estimates of deaths, going from 2 million just a week or so ago, to yesterdays 81K now down to 60,415. This is reaching nothing burger territory, so much so that Kalifornia has gone in 3 days from crying for more ventilators to shipping 500 out to other states.

Note on modeling (I do modeling as part of my career). If you cannot accurately model the past to the present day, any projections with that model are worthless. Even a slight deviation of past results will create huge errors in prediction quality. IHME models continue to overestimate for example the numbers of hospitalizations by a factor of 4 to 5. Projecting this outward creates huge over estimates of hospitalizations. This is because the models do not accurately capture the variables nor have a valid sensitivity analysis for those variables.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was “clinically stable” in intensive care on Wednesday and responding to treatment for COVID-19 complications. He has been on oxygen but not a ventilator.

In Wuhan, after 76 days in quarantine the city’s lock down - as well as controls on outbound travel - have now been lifted, just after midnight in China with authorities encouraging resumption of business operations for this critical industrial hub. However, there are reports of panic buying in various regions and growing fears of a second round of infections- all buried by the communist leadership.

President Trump announced Tuesday that he would put a hold on funding to the World Health Organization amid the corona virus crisis. There are also bills in congress to do the same.

Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea have seen new corona virus cases creeping upward and have triggered alarms that the pandemic may be coming around for a second try.

Afghanistan -
The Taliban have walked out of landmark talks which were supposed to help pave the path to peace in Afghanistan. A spokesman for the militant group said the first face-to-face discussions with the government had proved “fruitless”. Talks have broken down over a prisoner swap agreed between the US and Taliban. Afghan leaders are opposed to any swap saying it was the US’ idea, not something they agreed to.

India/China -
Interesting article of another area of China pushing outward in the region.
https://defconwarningsystem.com/2020/04/07/the-strategic-postures-of-china-and-india/

Iraq -
Iranian backed militias are calling for more attacks and for the native Iraqis to boycott the American and coalition forces in an effort to push them out of the country. Very little evidence this is gaining any traction among Iraqis who see jobs coming from American firms and nothing from Iran except autocratic Islamic rule.