Corona virus overwhelming the news feeds and sources.
Wuhan Virus -
Significant developments on my radar . . . .
States are now switching to mandatory 14 day quarantines for outsiders entering their states. This is creating friction between states and governors. Washington is silent on this increasing trend.
LA and Seattle reported corona virus has officially entered their homeless communities. This will create a strong spike in infections and deaths.
Observations of Chinese rhetoric and news leaking out of the country indicate that there may be a second wave of infections building. One report from the Hunan area has 48 new cases that have emerged with one new death, the reputed “source” having brought the infection from outside the country. The now viral report of tens of thousands of burial urns in Wuhan has generated estimated deaths of 42,000, versus the reported 3304.
Iran -
Intelligence continues to build indicating that Iran is attempting to use the corona virus as an opportunity to force easing of sanctions and furthermost of its power plans for the middle east. The major problem is that internal discord with the Iranian economy, continued wars and now pandemic response have many Iranians upset with the government’s response to the outbreak. Increased proxy attacks of late suggest the attempt is going out, but I suspect much of the lack of vitality of those attacks are muted one due to the effects of the virus on those proxies as well as the lack luster leadership following the killing of the IRGC general last year.
Libya -
The European Union announced Tuesday the launch of a new naval mission in the Mediterranean Sea aimed at enforcing the U.N. arms embargo on Libya. The previous mission unraveled when Italy opposed it saying it increased illegal immigration to the country. Cease fire talks are not producing any results and clashes are reported to be on the rise.
CW2/Civil Unrest -
A great warning from observation of history. High unemployment and stagnant economic activity tend to lead to social unrest, including demonstrations, strikes, and other forms of potentially violent disruptions. Leftist groups like Antifa have already been promoting disruptions and rioting, but for now largely refrained from actions. As local police forces get hammered by the virus resulting in fewer LEOs on the street, and criminals released from jails/prisons, crime rates will increase, placing additional pressures. Add to the mix people being limited largely to their homes and it becomes explosive. Businesses around the country are being observed to be taking precautions by boarding up their closed stores. As I’ve pointed out earlier, the run on guns/ammo is a reflection of the uncertainty of the stability of society to maintain order and peace as this emergency continues.
Add to the current situation the presidential elections and things can become even more explosive if the crisis doesn’t start getting resolved by summer.
WARNING ANALYSIS - Status quo can be maintained provided there are no substantial hits to the continued receipt of welfare and related. If that gets interrupted or stopped for any period of time expect the inner cities to become violent. Watch out for any serious disruption of the food supply chain. Stores are just getting their supply chain back to pre-panic status. Be alert to national and local news for any of these indicators. If you failed to prepare by having a minimal 2-week food supply, NOW is the time to correct that - gently because even two weeks worth of purchases will draw red flags.
Trying to stay on top of other critical issues/threats inspire of the wall to wall corona virus news.
Wuhan Virus -
Significant developments on my radar . . . .
Deaths from the virus in the US have exceeded China’s “reported” death toll. If observations are correct that is a fake milestone considering that the real toll is probably at least 10x what the Chinese have reported. Even so, US death toll went from 3000 to 4000 in less than 24 hours. . . .
Yesterday, Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that – even with all of the correct measures being put into place – the best case is 100,000 to 200,000 deaths as a result of the COVID-19 virus. This places the toll from china into a very suspicious mode. China has about 4x the US population in many densely packed cities. Yet our ‘models’ indicate that we expect TWO orders of magnitude numbers of deaths. Something is not adding up.
Russia sent a cargo aircraft full of medical supplies. The amount is but a drop in the bucket to US needs and is at best a PR stint by Putin to rub the US’ face in the current problem.
L.A. County Sheriff has released about 2,900 nonviolent inmates (16% of jail population) with another 500 set to be released today. This is all in the name of protecting them from the virus. This is a very stupid policy. There are no jobs for them to go to, the city is under a ‘shelter in place’ order, making the only community they can process into that of crime. This is happening all over the country now - expect increasing crime waves.
BTW - on a good note, the sheriff has been removed as head of the county EOC and there is a growing movement to vote him out of office.
Israel/Syria -
Israeli aircraft carried out airstrikes on multiple targets in the area near Homs, Syria for the second time within a month on Tuesday night. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the airstrike targeted the Al-Shayrat airbase and sites belonging to Iranian militias near Homs and that a cargo plane had flown between the airbase and the T-4 airbase shortly before the airstrikes occurred. I noted a few days ago that cargo planes arrived from Iran and to expect air strikes. Well they are here. There was no significant Syrian AA response. Syrian sources say it is a combination of ada moved north to support Idlib operations and corona virus
N Korea -
Returning to more hostile rhetoric North Korea vowed Monday to “repay the U.S. with actual horror and unrest” following remarks from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week in which he called on world leaders to keep applying pressure on the Hermit Kingdom’s controversial nuclear program.