N Korea watch
Continued speculation of the nature of the “present” coming by the end of the year.
Photos allegedly of the recent rocket test seem to appear to be liquid fuel nozzles - but source of photo is questionable and unverified (from what I’ve read). Yesterday I was pretty sure the test involved a solid fuel engine, todays info and discussion with AmericanInTokoyo have shifted my thought to 50/50.
Tweaking interest today comes from a statement by North Korean Army Chief Pak Jon Chons hinting at ‘Another’ Strategic Weapon in Statement today. Speculation is ranging from the potential development of a MIRV warhead to a SLBM launch. OSINT folks have noted some “minor” activity at a submersible test stand barge at Nampo Naval Shipyard. FWIW, NK is holding its cards pretty close at the moment.
Turkey
Turkey is involved in projecting power in four directions.
1 - continued operations in Syria, still haven’t secured their desired ‘buffer’ zone
2 - chasing out other vessels and beginning explorations of ocean they have just recently declared as theirs.
3 - Evaluating sending troops to help the beleaguered government in Libya
4 - THIS IS THE BIGGIE. Turkey is threatening to ban US from two key bases in retaliation for any sanctions and unfavorable measures (Armenian Massacre) taken by the US. Key is the Incirlik Airbase, known for the storage of nuclear weapons. Also the Kürecik Radar Station - provides early warning for NATO against ballistic missile attacks from the east. Either one of these actions would not only affect America, but the rest of NATO/Europe.
Turkey has over the past 10+ years been going more and more rogue and more radically Islamic. It is doubtful that it can retain NATO membership much longer.
“Turkey is threatening to ban US from two key bases in retaliation”
They would be kicked out of NATO immediately.
Thanks for your pings/posts, Thanks to all contributors. The world is very unstable. Too many no think/irrational people in positions of power and getting away with it...to all of our detriment. Look at the individuals in our own country destabilizing America.
While the continuing episode of impeachmentmania goes on, bad things continue to be afoot globally
N. Korea
USAF General Brown indicated that the US Military as well as other governments, expect NK to test a long range ICBM - their “Christmas gift”. Gen Brown stated that the military retains all options for response. An ICBM test would be the most serious action by NK since negotiations to denuclearize began.
Hamas/Turkey
Reports out today that Hamas has elements working in Turkey planning attacks on Israel with the tacit approval of Turkey. Relocation of planning cells there would enable a degree of security they do not have in Gaza. This Hamas cell is also reportedly in contact with Turkish intelligence.
Lebanon/Hezbollah
The Lebanese army fought with Shia militias, mainly Hezbollah but also the smaller Amal, who tried to occupy a areas in downtown Beirut (the capital). The Shia militia were protesting a video (by a Sunni Arab) they said was offensive to Shia Islam. Since October Lebanon has been the scene of large anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah protests lately and this was a Hezbollah effort to fight back. Until recently the army would not confront, much less fight, Hezbollah. That is changing.
Turkey
More on Turkey. They are reportedly in talks with Russia regarding Libya and the civil war there. Ankara is increasing moving towards Russia and away from Nato.
US congress has passed a bill lifting a military embargo on Cyprus which has been in place since 1987. This is seen by Turkey as an escalation against it following its decision to purchase the Russian S400 anti-aircraft missile system. The specter of being denied access to key Turkish facilities was raised once again.
Earlier, Turkey chased off an Israeli exploration vessel from Cypriot waters Turkey claims for itself. Turkey grows more aggressive and anti-west daily.
Syria/Iran/Russia/Turkey
Russia is in a delicate dance in Syria between Assad, Iran and Turkey. Assad doesn’t like Iran or Turkey, Turkey and Iran don’t like each other and Russia is trying to hold things together long enough to better establish itself in the region. Probably the most serious threat of the dance is a conflict between Iran and Turkey. They have duked it out in the past and with Turkish resurrection of a desire to be the restored caliphate - in direct challenge to Iran’s similar desire - and turf issues in Syria the potential increases daily. I would have to say Turkey currently has the upper hand against Iran because Iran is over extended finically and militarily across the ME trying to position itself to strike Israel AND the US and any other threat (Saudi Arabia). It would seem that to confront Turkey directly at this moment would not turn out well.
US CW2
With the impeachment battle due to be transferred from the House to the Senate, the levels of rhetoric from both sides is elevating. Scattered pro-impeachment protests occurred around the nation in blue zones.
Virginia 2A sanctuary movement gains traction and similar movements across the country are merging. Jan 20 is a scheduled pro 2A march on Richmond. You can definitely EXPECT antifa to show up potentially creating a very explosive scenario. The Red portion of the state is very motivated and mobilized and won’t take any antifa bullying at all. Keep alert if you are in that area of the country, it could get ugly fast.