Yes, I suppose being stationed inside a mountain, or flying fast jets, does make one an expert on identifying "definite" missile launches based on a few seconds of highly-zoomed video.
It's hooey. There are a lot of folks who for some reason really want this to have been a missile. The easy, correct answer isn't good enough for them.
How long do you think a fighter pilot has to identify one? Publik skool product are you?