Who is your best guess for a surprising 2012 dark horse candidate?

vanity ^ | 111910 | me

[The Pack Knight]

This might be a stretch, but I think it’s very possible that Rick Santorum will both run and make a surprisingly strong showing.

First off, he is definitely considering a run, and has been making preparations to that effect. He has spent a lot of time over the last year in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and now it seems like he is trying to position himself as the tea party candidate. In an interview with Politico from last week, he said that no one currently in the 2012 mix “can claim to be a tea party candidate”, but that he “qualifies”.

As for why I think he’ll make a surprising showing: Policy-wise, he has no real vulnerabilities with any of the various constituencies that make up the Republican base - he has sterling credentials among religious/social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and foreign-policy hawks alike. He is established enough to put together a strong organization, but has been out of Washington long enough not to be painted as an “establishment” candidate. He also has the rare combination of being both an aggressive and energetic campaigner and a genuinely personable guy (heck, he even won over Jonathan Stewart). I also think he’ll do well in any televised debate he participates in. Finally, (and, unfortunately important in today’s world) he is telegenic, physically fit, and relatively young.

There are certainly a few things that weigh against him, on the other hand. Being a former senator rather than a governor is probably going to be an even bigger liability this time than usual. Second, he is a former senator because he was trounced in a statewide election in one of the most important presidential swing states (though that was in a year that was a debacle for Republicans nationwide). Also, he can come off as a zealot, which will turn off a significant number of voters even in the primaries. Finally, there will be serious concerns about his “electibility”.

On the balance, however, he has the tools to put together a formidable campaign for someone considered a “second-tier” candidate at best. Similarly to Huckabee in 2008, he is often underestimated as a politician and candidate. He has the potential to take a lot of tea party and social conservative votes from bigger-name candidates like Palin and Huckabee. While I doubt he has much chance of being nominated, a strong showing in Iowa and South Carolina could land him a VP nod, especially if the nominee is someone who needs to shore up his standing among the base like Mitt Romney or Mitch Daniels.