Pretty hard to take some of these guys who sit with a nice colored political map and pontificate... "I'll have you know, my man, that I was the Phillips Andover undisputed champion at 'Risk' three years running."
I don't expect that the Canadians, Dutch et al will be thrown willy-nilly to the lions. Yes, there will be casualties, but there already have been and the NATO forces know what they're getting in to. they've already taken casualties, even when ISAF was confined to Kabul.
I expect the US will keep the remaining hot areas: Asadabad-Jalalabad-Khost-Gardez and the trouble that used to be in Kandahar but now is in Deh Rawood and that area (but that has to be somewhat pacified if they are going to give the Euros Tarin Kowt), and down on the border around Shkin and Lwara where they can touch off an RPG or IED and skedaddle home to Pakistan.
One thing that has amazed me throughout this war has been the sheer volume and gross inaccuracy of "expertise" being retailed by armchair strategists, wargame buffs, and George A. Custer wannabees (recruiting offices will be open at 8 AM tomorrow, kids).
As far as the Pushtuns are concerned, they are a fascinating and complex people (as are Tajiks and Uzbeks and Qizilbash and especially Hazaras). Like all tribal peoples, personal loyalties and strong leaders mean a lot more than ethnic affinity. Before anybody rags on Pushtuns, I should like to remind you that more than one American breathes life today because of Pushtun honour and the code of Pushtunwali. One of those was the only survivor of a SEAL patrol of four attacked last year; the one where the quick reaction force's helicopter was shot down. You all must have read the stories of how a villager took in and harboured the American.
Several of the key figures in the government (starting with the President) are Pashtun, and each reorganization seems to bring in a few more. Many of the most gifted officers in the Army (some of whom were mujahideen, and some who served the Soviets) are Pushtun (so are many of the best officers in Pakistan). A preponderance of Afghan-Americans are Pashtun, and let me tell you, sympathy for the Taliban and Hekmatayer in that group is vanishingly small.
By now, many people have been to Afghanistan, some have been back many times. You'll understand the Pushtun more by reading Kipling than by reading this guy's blog. My opinion, make of it what you will.
d.o.l.
Criminal Number 18F
A scrimmage in a Border Station--
A canter down some dark defile--
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail--