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CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EV AL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182...

In 2000, the Wisconsin-based costume company began tracking presidential candidate mask sales by five different mask manufacturers and asked 12 different chains to research their sales history. What they found was remarkable: Since 1980, the candidate whose likeness has outsold his opponent's likeness has won the White House. So you can throw out the confusing, contradictory polling numbers being released almost hourly now by Time, Newsweek, Reuters/Zogby, ABC/Washington Post, CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Pooh Bear/Piglet/Christopher Robin. The numbers that truly matter, the numbers that unfailingly point to who will emerge victorious in the presidential election, are the number of Bush and...

Also, Bush will win Maine's 2nd district, getting one vote for a theoretical total of 297-241. If the rumors about an unfaithful West Virginia elector are true, it could drop this to 296-241.

Hey folks, this is my first vanity in 6 years of Freeping. So, sorry in advance for the vanity. :) Anyway, I've been watching the Dow Jones Average since Labor Day. Why? Because the old theory is that if, on Election Day, the Dow is higher than it was on Labor Day, the incumbant will win. And vice-versa. This theory has been approx. 90% accurate for the past 100 years, or something like that. Anyway, the Dow was around 10,250 on Labor Day, and it's at 10,000 today, with one trading day left before Tuesday. I've been worrying about this...

The famour Fair model has been updated for the new GDP numbers. Strong economic growth caused Yale economist, Ray Fair, to boost his prediction of President Bush's share of the vote. The prediction of his economic model: Bush wins with 58% of the vote.

William KristolBush wins Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry Senate: 54 (R), 46 (D) House: 232 (R), 202 (D), 1 (I) Dark horse: Tom Daschle loses to John Thune in South Dakota. Stephen HayesKerry wins Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush Senate: 52 (R), 47 (D), 1 (I) House: 230 (R), 205 (D) Dark horse: Wisconsin, long regarded as the clean government state, will be so overwhelmed with voter fraud that pundits in 2008 will speak of avoiding the "Wisconsin problem." Bonus prediction: Packers...

Although their current map looks good, take a look at their final prediction for the election. Under the map you can check their assumptions, but yikes!

Friends - as someone who likes to dig deeper into the US elections (I mean the technicalities, my interest always was great, and I am European) I would like to ask the following: if one looks into the poll predictions concerning the election of next week, one at first is confronted with a bewildering array of names and predictions. The latter may vary quite a lot, in that one poll gives Dubya an advantage of 4 procent points (raise a toast!), and then another seems to predict something of a draw, a photo finish. Then there is the meta-poll math,...

(Click the article link to see a topographic image of the San Andreas Fault region of central California.) On September 28, 2004 a magnitude 6.0 earthquake struck Central California near the town of Parkfield. The quake caused no injuries and minimal property damage, but was of great interest to American geologists. In 1984 the United States Geological Survey predicted that a Magnitude 6 earthquake would occur on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield within five years of 1988. The prediction was based on a sequence of 6 similar earthquakes that occured every 22 years (on average) from 1857 to 1966....

The most scientifically credible earthquake prediction for California in years has just a few days left for fulfillment - or bust. The forecast, made by an international team of scientists including a UCLA seismologist, is that a quake of magnitude 6.4 or larger will strike within a 12,000-square-mile region of Southern California before Monday. A state panel of earthquake experts who reviewed the prediction says the approach is legitimate but too untested to warrant emergency action. Another difficulty with taking action, they said, is that the region in question is too big. Reaching from the Mojave Desert in San Bernardino...

Electoral Votes: Bush 328, Kerry 210 Popular Vote: Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1%

THE BOUNCE HITS THE ELECTORAL VOTE  Bush 47.5% – 246 EV | Kerry 49.8% – 292 EV EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 216| Kerry 250| Toss 72 July 20, 2004 Florida finally slips over into the Kerry column after weeks of hanging out with Bush despite the popular vote swing toward Kerry. But, as predicted last week, the Edwards bounce has arrived in the electoral college, where Kerry now leads 292-246. You'll also notice a change in the above graphic. Despite the convenience (and now cliché) of referring to "Red States" and "Blue States", I've...

KERRY TAKES THE LEAD  Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284 May 25, 2004 Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan...

Stable Race, Bush Still Leads  Bush 49.00 | Kerry 47.59May 11, 2004Despite dire warnings from the pundits about Bush's electability after the USA Today Gallup Poll showed Bush's approval ratings relatively unchanged since February, the race remains tight, with Bush maintaining a slight lead over Kerry in this week's Composite Poll.  Bush leads the Composite Popular Vote 49.0% to 49.6%, and he leads the Electoral Vote Prediction 290-248.   When eliminating the Battleground states (which are in the "Lean" category where the current projected margin for any candidate is less than 6%), Bush has the advantage in states with 182 electoral...

TO PREDICT the outcome of US elections is to invite the fate of the American Civil War general, John Sedgwick. He met his end at the Battle of Spotsylvania, 140 years ago yesterday, while urging the troops under his command to ignore Confederate snipers. “Don’t duck!”, he insisted. “They couldn't hit an elephant at this dis . . . ” and promptly dropped dead from a bullet. Newspapers of late have contained thoroughly confusing messages about the present presidential struggle. For ten solid days, the Bush White House has been placed under a media siege by the Iraqi prisoner abuse...

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November. In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush. "I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election." Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he...

PRE-AD BLITZ  Bush 49.46 | Kerry 48.36May 4, 2004As John Kerry readies his $25 million ad buy targeted at 19 states, the race remains close.  The only difference from 2000 is that New Mexico slips into Bush’s column.The polls still show continued weakness for President Bush.  He doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls.  That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate.  At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined, and now he gets his chance to define himself – a $25 million chance.  Without allocating the undecided vote, the composite...

A SWING TOWARD THE PRESIDENT  Bush 49.83 | Kerry 47.33April 20, 2004 On April 13, the race was tied at 48.9. Since the data were collected for last week's Composite Poll, Condoleeza Rice has testified, the PDB was released, further complaints have arisen that Bush was "asleep at the switch" prior to 9/11, violence in Iraq has increased, Kerry returned from vacation and ratcheted up his attacks on Bush and released the Kerry Middle-Class Misery Index, liberal radio Air America appeared in several major cities and Bush held a news conference for which he was roundly criticized for a weak...

A US geophysicist has set the scientific world ablaze by claming to have cracked the holy grail: accurate earthquake prediction, and warning that a big one will hit southern California by September 5.Russian born UCLA professor Vladimir Keilis-Borok says he can forsee major quakes by tracking minor tremblers and historical patterns in seismic hotspots that could indicate more violent shaking is on the way. And he has made the chilling prediction that a quake measuring at least 6.4 magintude on the Richter scale will hit a 32,000 square km area of southern California bt September 5. The team at the...

A 2000 Repeat?  Bush 48.9  Kerry 48.9April 13, 2004 The race for president is currently a tie, with each candidate pulling 48.9% of the vote in the fully allocated April 13 Federal Review Composite Poll. Bush has kept it close in a tough news week for him and the country, largely due to a 4 point lead in the Gallup poll, a substantial lead in the Iowa Electronic Market and the results of last week’s Composite Poll in which Bush held a slight lead. Other polls, however, including Newsweek and FoxNews show Kerry with a 4 and 1 point lead,...

Tuesday, March 30, 2004 12:36 p.m. EST Hillary Predicts October Surprise New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is predicting that this year's presidential election will be very tight and the victor will win because of "something unforeseen." "It will be very close," the former first lady tells the New York Post's Cindy Adams. On how the contest will ultimately be decided, Clinton said, "It will be outside forces - something unforeseen that suddenly happens - that tilts the election one way or the other." In 1992, Clinton's husband won the White House after Reagan Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted on...

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is predicting that this year's presidential election will be very tight and the victor will win because of "something unforeseen." "It will be very close," the former first lady tells the New York Post's Cindy Adams. On how the contest will ultimately be decided, Clinton said, "It will be outside forces - something unforeseen that suddenly happens - that tilts the election one way or the other." In 1992, Clinton's husband won the White House after Reagan Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted on Iran-Contra charges four days before the vote. Though the indictment was...

US manufacturers group predicts strong '04 rebound Reuters, 02.23.04, 2:55 PM ET CHICAGO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The National Association of Manufacturers said on Monday that it expects a strong recovery in manufacturing this year, with the sector outperforming the economy as a whole. The organization, which unveiled its forecast at National Manufacturing Week in Chicago, said it expects manufacturing production to increase by more than 6 percent this year, with U.S. gross domestic product up 4.1 percent. "We are more positive about the outlook for manufacturing and the general economy than we have been over the past two or...

<p>WASHINGTON - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger came to the nation's capital Sunday and made a bold but perfectly clear political prediction: President Bush will carry California in November if he helps the state dig out of its multibillion-dollar budget mess.</p> <p>"There's no two ways about it," he told Tim Russert, host of NBC's "Meet the Press," discussing a state that has gone strongly Democratic in recent presidential elections.</p>

<p>The US military is "sure" it will catch Osama bin Laden this year, perhaps within months, a spokesman declared yesterday, but Pakistan said it would not allow American troops to cross the border in search of the Al Qaeda leader.</p>

Professor predicts landslide for Bush Monday, January 19, 2004 - PITTSFIELD -- George W. Bush will be re-elected in a "landslide" next November, a University of Massachusetts political scientist predicts. Addressing a regular meeting of the Berkshire County Republican Association at the Berkshire Athenaeum last week, Jeffrey L. Sedgwick, an associate professor of political science at UMass-Amherst, used the results of various polls to back up his contention that Bush's margin of victory will be wide and that the GOP will garner 15 to 20 additional seats in Congress. Many of those seats, said Sedgwick, will be in the Senate,...

Happy New Year's Eve to all at Free Republic!!! Make your predictions for 2004. Good Luck!!!

Did anyone else hear Monsoor relate that a agent in place in Irag will reveal where special lab and other locations for WMD's?

A Macroeconomic model developed by Yale University is predicting a huge popular vote victory for President Bush next year, similar to the one enjoyed by Ronald Reagan two decades ago. Based on factors such as inflation, GDP growth, and number of quarters of positive economic growth, the model, whose parameters are updated every quarter, is forecasting a Bush victory with over 58% of the vote: ********************************************************************************** Presidential Vote Equation--October 31, 2003 The predictions of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS for the previous forecast from the US model (July 31, 2003) were 2.4 percent, 1.8 percent, and 1, respectively. The current predictions...

CAMPUS : events & lectures -- Though College Democrats brought George Stephanopoulos to Northwestern, his prediction of Republican victory in the 2004 presidential election appealed mostly to their opposition. Speaking to a nearly packed crowd at Pick-Staiger Concert Hall, Stephanopoulos, President Clinton's senior adviser, was pessimistic about the Democratic party's chances of retaking the White House in 2004. "It looks like we are coming out of the recession," Stephanopoulos said. "Wages are starting to go up. Productivity is starting to go up. Generally if you look at polls across the country people respect President Bush even when people don't agree...

Listening to the Enemy: Russia’s Economic Attack Plan Compiled By: Ryan Mauro PhilNDeBlank9@aol.com Special Thanks to J.R. Nyquist (www.JRNyquist.com) and Dr. Alexander Nemets of Newsmax.com for putting together the pieces to the puzzle I am discussing here. The revelations drawn upon in this article are a result of their work. “You overthrew the shah 22 years ago, but there is another shah one thousand times stronger and better armed...This shah is imperialism, and its main stronghold is only miles away from our border... [America] has military bases and aircraft carriers everywhere and its nuclear warheads aimed in every direction, but...

The following AP story is excerpted from this morning's Washington Post: 'Terminator' in Calif. Recall Race By ERICA WERNER The Associated Press Thursday, August 7, 2003; 7:55 AM LOS ANGELES - With a surprise jump into California's recall race, actor Arnold Schwarzenegger touched off the heaviest tremors in the state's political earthquake to date, saying he wasn't afraid of attacks sure to come from Democrats and conservative Republicans alike. But the aftershock from a day of topsy-turvy developments in the drive to recall Gov. Gray Davis came just hours later, when Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante broke party ranks to...

When this post goes up, it will have a number somewhere in the 9995xx range, maybe 9996xx if I get distracted while typing this. We're only a few hundred threads away from rolling over the odometer.I have no idea at what point JohnRob started his numbering scheme, so I don't know if thread 1000000 will truly be the one millionth thread posted on FR, or even anywhere close. But then, this post has no point other than fun anyway, so who cares?Make your guess! What will be the subject of thread 1000000? The winner gets to claim the title of...

The siren is on

Just saw Chris on MSNBC and he predicted Davis would be recalled by 52-48% and that since the race has tightened up, he expects Cruz Bustamante to be the next governor.

Odigo says workers were warned of attack By Yuval Dror Odigo, the instant messaging service, says that two of its workers received messages two hours before the Twin Towers attack on September 11 predicting the attack would happen, and the company has been cooperating with Israeli and American law enforcement, including the FBI, in trying to find the original sender of the message predicting the attack. Micha Macover, CEO of the company, said the two workers received the messages and immediately after the terror attack informed the company's management, which immediately contacted the Israeli security services, which brought in the...

  Astronomer Predicts Major Earthquake for Japan, Other Experts Express Doubts TOKYO (AP) _ A Japanese researcher is causing a stir in Tokyo with a prediction based on his study of radio waves that a major destructive earthquake is highly likely to hit the city this week. Yoshio Kushida, a well-known self-taught astronomer who runs his own observatory just outside Tokyo, published on its Internet site his prediction that a quake with a magnitude of 7 or greater was likely to strike the metropolitan area on Tuesday or Wednesday. The prediction was soon picked up by a popular weekly magazine...

The warning from David Cook, general counsel for the nation's electric reliability organization, was stark: "The question is not whether, but when, the next major failure of the grid will occur."

BOULDER, COLORADO - Energy experts have been warning about large-scale blackouts in North America since the early eighties. Bill Browning of the Rocky Mountain Institute in Colorado says a report for the U.S. Pentagon in 1982 cautioned the American government about the fragility of the power grid system in North America. The institute is an energy think tank. Browning runs the green development section. "Everyone is pulling power and there's lots of big stations on the grid. All you need is one tenuous problem and it cascades throughout," Browning told CBC News Online. Other experts agree. "It's pretty close to...

But for all the grandstanding and moral posturing, the most important question has been absent from the discussion: Would the market have worked? In other words, would it have improved American intelligence capabilities and enhanced national security? All the evidence suggests that it would have. As Daniel Gross and Brendan Koerner mentioned in their Slate pieces yesterday, similar markets have proven surprisingly good at predicting the outcome of presidential elections, box-office results, and even the fall of Saddam Hussein. We now have more than a decade of empirical results to back up the idea that "decision markets" can work, in...

Is a Futures Market on Terror Outlandish? Maybe not. There is strong evidence that futures exchanges can predict events better than other forms of analysis. FORTUNE Wednesday, July 30, 2003 By Jeremy Kahn The Defense Department announced yesterday that it is canceling a controversial program to develop a futures market that would allow traders to bet on wars, assassinations and terrorism in the Middle East. The plan, which FORTUNE first reported on in its March 3rd issue (Place Your Bets—On War), was abandoned after Democratic senators assailed it as ghoulish, immoral, and absurd. Senator Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South...

It seems like an attack on Iran is coming sometime in the future. Place your bet as to when the attack will begin. Whoever gets closest to the date and time wins. Attack time must be specified in Month, Day, Year, Hour, and Minute For the hour, don't forget to specify what time zone you are referring to. There is no decision on a prize to be awarded yet except for bragging rights.

It seems like an attack on Iraq is coming soon.Place your bet as to when the attack will begin. Whoever gets closest to the date and time wins.Attack time must be specified in Month, Day, Year, Hour, and MinuteFor the hour, don't forget to specify what time zone you are referring to.There is no decision on a prize to be awarded yet except for bragging rights.

It has been my pleasure to participate as a caller to the Jayne Carroll program, which may be heard most weekdays....During such a call on Friday, November 8, 2002, I expressed some opinions that are also printed in this issue of Oregon Magazine, in two essays titled What Just Happened and The Media's the Message. A small firestorm erupted....(snip Too many conservative talk show hosts have been blaming the Libertarians for the Kulongoski victory. Kevin Mannix's campaign was, in fact, just not good enough to win under the circumstances.....Besides calling the Libertarians anarchists, which did not endear him to that...

Crystal Ball: At a glance Governor Proj. Dem.: 26 (+5) Rep.: 24 (-3) Ind.: 0 (-2) Senate Proj.* (more) Dem.: 52 (+1) Rep.: 48 (-1) House Proj. (more) Total races: 435 Dem.: 209 (-3) Rep.: 226 (+3) *NOTE: For the purposes of this tally, Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT) is counted with the Democrats. Brutal B: Governors This is the one, certain bright spot for Democrats on election night--and a promising achievement it is for a party that had just 19 governorships after the 1994 elections. The Democrats will net governorships, and we estimate the total to be +5 NET. (This...

HUNT: Next on CAPITAL GANG, Beyond the Beltway looks at Jeb Bush's struggle for a second term as governor of Florida. Political reporter Mark Silva of "The Orlando Sentinel" joins us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HUNT: Welcome back. What Republican Jeb Bush hoped would be an easy reelection against former U.S. attorney general Janet Reno became a tough race when lawyer Bill McBride defeated Reno for the Democratic nomination. The latest nonpartisan poll by Insider Advantage shows a 5-point Bush advantage. At their most recent debate, the candidates debated Florida's economy. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: What we've done...

(The following excerpt was taken from an article pulished in The Delphi Associates Newsletter, Issue #74, September 2001 ©) SEASON OF HORRORBY SEAN DAVID MORTON (Compilation and Editor's notes by Melissa Thomson)   ~The Millennium Factor~ September 17, 1992" In July of 1999, New York will be attacked unsuccessfully...The Anti-Christ will be behind this. We will intercept the nukes in time, but large scale damage is still sustained by the East Coast." "A neutron-like bomb will be successfully exploded over the Pentagon in Washington, DC. It will turn Washington into a ghost town, but the monuments will all be...