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Have A Happy (Scripted) Political Season Since politics has become a retail and wholesale money machine and the entire process degraded to a series of TV shows (bad TV shows), it is appropriate to consider the whole smelly thing as a consumer issue. Because that is what we are to the politicos: consumers of retail political products; you pay to participate in the political process just like you pay for any other service. But what you get for your money is often unclear as it’s a bait-and-switch game: buy the pitch, pay your money and cross your fingers. What you...

Really good "no spin" interview with Republican strategist Ryan Tyson who forecasts a Trump victory in spite of the flawed Biden polls (poor turnout models, shy Trump voters, etc.) He doesn't think Biden will be able to turn out enough of his voters because while they are driven by their hate for Trump; our side hates the left just as much. But the turnout advantage goes to the candidate who is loved by his supporters and that's Trump. https://stpetecatalyst.com/political-party-with-adam-smith-will-the-polls-tell-the-tale/

@paulsperry_BREAKING: Latest RCP meta-polling shows momentum shift toward Trump with Trump eating into Biden's nat'l lead by 1.5+ points and narrowing his lead in key battleground states, including Penn & NC, where 1 poll shows Trump has tied it up, while Sen. Tillis has tied up his race too

Last week, the Associated Press published a story, without any real data, that Trump’s support at The Villages is waning. They interviewed a handful of people and declared the retirement community a warning sign for Trump, that he’s losing the senior vote. Sumter County, home of The Villages retirement community, reported early votes this evening. 71.2% of the early votes were cast by registered Republicans. 16.1% cast by Democrats.

Democrats in Sacramento have been rewriting election laws to help their party “ballot harvest.” But now Republicans have figured out how to play the same game, and Democratic state leaders are threatening legal action. In 2016 California Democrats passed a law allowing anybody, including paid campaign operatives and political parties, to collect and return mail-in ballots. Two years later Democrats prohibited “disqualifying a ballot solely because the person returning it did not provide on the identification envelope his or her name, relationship to the voter, or signature.” We oppose ballot harvesting because it invites mischief and undermines public confidence in...

New IBD/TIPP Poll Shows Trump Surging--Within 2.3% Nationally Biden 48.1 Trump 45.8 "Republicans are rallying around Trump. Biden is leaking Democratic support. . . ."

Democrats Freak Out Over "Deja Vu" As Dems ALREADY Underperform, Republicans WINNING Voter Advantage. Biden enters PA with a smaller lead than Hillary did in the polling average. While Democrats have a huge lead in early voting in PA they are underperforming in many key battleground states. This combined with Trump's voter registration advantage suggests Democrats are on track for 2016 round two and they know it. Democrats are getting worried that it is starting to play out exactly like 2016 did and the Republicans and Trump may be set to defeat Joe Biden early on election night. ...

Steve Guest @SteveGuest MSNBC reports: Republicans “significantly…gaining in registrations in Pennsylvania” Embedded video 0:41 186.8K views From RNC Research 8:25 AM · Oct 20, 2020·Twitter for iPhone Video: https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1318574184293752832

The presidential race is narrow in battleground state Ohio, with Joe Biden (D) leading President Trump by two percentage points, according to a Rassmussen Reports survey released Tuesday. Biden leads the president 48 percent to 46 percent in the Buckeye State, while four percent of Ohio voters remain undecided, the survey found. Biden’s lead reduces to a single percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent, when leaners are included.

A poll released from the Pew Research Center shows that a large majority of Republicans believe the United States has handled the coronavirus pandemic well, claiming the threat is overblown. Of those surveyed, 71 percent of Republicans are satisfied with how the United States has handled the outbreak and spread of coronavirus while only 10 percent of Democrats who took part in the survey agree. In total, 38 percent of American adults stated the United States handled the pandemic as well as it could have.

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/ Leading by ONLY 2.3%..... :-)

Welcome back to The Day in Polls. As we approach Election Day, we'll be keeping you up-to-date on the latest poll numbers and where the candidates stand. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump continues to chip away at Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls, although Clinton is still favored nationally by 4 to 5 points. However, Saturday morning's polls don't reflect likely voter opinions after FBI Director James Comey informed Congress that the bureau uncovered potentially new evidence in its probe of Clinton's private email server. Clinton is 5.5 points ahead of Trump in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as...

Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Donald Trump, polling 14 percentage points ahead nationally, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, which comes 12 days before the presidential election. Conducted after the final presidential debate, the poll finds the Democratic nominee leads Trump among likely voters 51% to 37%, a significant lead over the Republican candidate. According to the poll, Clinton has support of 90% of likely Democratic voters, as well as support from 15% of moderate Republicans. Of the Republicans surveyed, 79% said they would vote for Trump. The poll finds that Clinton has consolidated the support of...

Texas remains a toss-up in the presidential race. But Democrat Joe Biden’s modest – and somewhat startling – lead over President Donald Trump has evaporated in the last two months. From a 5-point edge in early July, Biden now lags Trump by 2 points among likely Texas voters in a poll released Sunday by The Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler. Trump’s lead is 48-46. That turnaround is sure to gladden the hearts of Republicans, who have no hope of controlling the White House without Texas. But as Trump has clawed his way back into contention just...

Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden and President Donald Trump are statistically tied in Pennsylvania, a Restoration PAC/Trafalgar Group survey released Monday — nearly two weeks out from the presidential election — revealed. The survey, taken October 13-15 among 1,041 likely voters, showed Trump narrowing the gap in Pennsylvania, with Biden leading by just 1.1 percent — 47.5 percent to the president’s 46.4 percent. As has been the emerging theme in several recent surveys in key Rust Belt states, Biden’s lead is within the margin of error, which is +/- 2.96 percent.

The last update for party affiliation was Sept. Republican: 28 Democrat: 27 Independents: 42 Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Shrinks

Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted). 43.5% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point. 42.0% of REP ballots have been returned and 47.1% of DEM ballots have been returned. 10/19/20: REPs - 757,694, DEMs - 1,227,883, lead of 470,189 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2% 10/18/20: REPs - 753,711, DEMs - 1,221,809, lead of 468,098 for DEMs, 48.9% to 30.2% 10/17/20: REPs - 726,797, DEMs - 1,185,892, lead of 459,095 for DEMs, 49.1% to 30.1% 10/16/20: REPs - 681,111, DEMs - 1,124,439, lead of 443,328 for DEMs, 49.4%...

The latest state polling by the Trafalgar Group predicts another win for President Trump in the upper 270’s to low 280’s in the Electoral College, but the CEO highlights a couple of big cautions for Republicans. In an lengthy interview on the National Review “The Editors” podcast, the Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly told NR’s Rich Lowry that he predicts Trump will win the battleground states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Texas. He said things are tighter in Wisconsin and Arizona, though Cahaly says Trump has the lead and will “probably win” in Arizona. Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #FL #BattlegroundState...

The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitic shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group. If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth...

[Link at the URL]: The media has been hyping polls showing that Joe Biden is up double-digits as of late – but even the Biden campaign isn’t buying them. After all, the polls had Hillary Clinton boasting a lead of 14-points against Donald Trump in late-October 2016, and we all know how that turned out. According to The Hill: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, says the race against President Trump is “far closer” than conventional wisdom suggests. Dillon warned over Twitter on Wednesday night that the contest is “a lot closer.” ...