Conservatives, I hate to break it to you, but Barack Obama, barring an unforeseen disaster (Afghanistan?), has about as much chance of being a one-term President as Keith Olbermann has of leading the primetime lineup at Fox News Channel. Why, in the face of so much optimism among conservatives, am I so certain about this (and, yes, just like my $100,000 offer to Keith Olbermann I am willing to put my money where my mouth is)? In short, because the evidence is overwhelmingly on my side of this argument.