Free Republic

If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on Election Night, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves. The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled—a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate—but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction. No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their best guess based on a set of assumptions. But unlike previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger. According to Dave...

Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 presidential match-up, according to a new poll, but the race would be extremely close. A poll from the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) has found that Harris enjoys 39 support to the Republican governor's 37 percent in a theoretical contest. However, those numbers are very tight and the Harris poll found that a significant 23 percent of respondents were undecided between DeSantis and Harris. [cut] The poll showed Trump defeating both Biden and Harris in hypothetical 2024 contests. Trump had 43 percent support...

Conservative attorney George Conway, who is now a fierce critic of former President Donald Trump, predicts that Trump will run for president again and says Ron DeSantis may be the only candidate that can beat him one-on-one.

....As journalists, we’re supposed to sort through press releases, talking points and propaganda, using them only to the extent they enlighten us as to what special interests want to believe: Is it true? Is it the whole story? Who wants you to think it and why? Are they trying to deflect attention from other facts or a more important story? Finding these answers is a basic part of our job. Instead, we’re willing repositories for all kinds of narratives. We report — as if news — press releases from the government, corporations, special interests or nonprofits (that are often undisclosed...

Former White House political strategist Karl Rove warned Senate Republicans in a meeting this week not to become overly reliant on their conservative base as they head into what could be a tough 2020 presidential election. Rove, who served as former President George W. Bush’s top political strategist, was brought in by Senate GOP leaders to speak to the 22 Republican incumbents up for reelection at an all-day planning session Thursday hosted at Nationals Park in southeast Washington, D.C. GOP lawmakers are getting nervous about next year’s election as polls show President Trump’s approval rating dropping during the 28-day government...

Nearly 60 percent of U.S. voters surveyed say President Trump should be either impeached and removed from office or formally censured, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill. The poll shows that a majority of voters polled think some kind of action should be taken against Trump, though they are divided on how far lawmakers should go as Democrats prepare to take over the House majority. Asked whether Trump should be impeached and removed from office for his actions, censured by Congress or whether Congress should take no action, 39 percent of respondents said Trump...

“NIKKI HALEY STUCK A KNIFE IN HIS BACK”: ROGER STONE IS ALREADY WRITING THE STORY OF TRUMP’S DOWNFALL (Vanity Fair can only be linked to)

In a shocking political earthquake, the Republican Party has lost a Senate election in Alabama.  For perspective on how difficult that feat was, the closest previous Senate contest in that state over the last two decades was a...19-point GOP victory.  Just three years ago, Jeff Sessions ran unopposed.  Donald Trump carried 'Bama by 28 points last fall.  In my election preview post yesterday, I wrote that an upset by liberal Doug Jones was improbably plausible, due exclusively to the disastrously awful candidate Republicans had nominated.  Apologies for quoting myself, but here you go:

As reported moments ago, CNN is leading with a story about a 35-page dossier compiled by a former member of British intelligence, which had been distilled into a 2-page appendix presented to Trump last Friday by the US intel community, and which contains "explosive, but unverified, allegations" that the Russian government has been "cultivating, supporting and assisting" President-elect Donald Trump for at least 5 years and "endorsed by Putin" gained compromising information about him, with the aim of "encouraging splits and divisions in the western alliance." ... the documents have circulated for months, and were available to the Clinton campaign...

Egypt’s foreign minister paid a rare visit to Israel on Sunday, saying that his country remains a “steadfast and unwavering” supporter of a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians but warning that conditions for achieving that are deteriorating. Sameh Shoukry’s trip was the first official visit to Israel since 2007 and reflected the strong but low-profile ties that have developed between the two countries in recent years. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry said Shoukry’s visit was aimed at reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. …

With his phone calls to Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates and Cambridge police sergeant James Crowley last week, Barack Obama seems to have defused the furor over his comment that Crowley had acted "stupidly" in handcuffing Gates on his own front porch. (I agree with Obama' final verdict, which is that Crowley did overreact, even if it appears that Gates got hysterical.) It may be that Obama was admirably taking advantage of what he calls "a teachable moment," and showing America that racial disputes can lead to dialogue and not just name-calling. But Obama was also mindful of what has...

If race were the only issue, there would be much less hyperventilation about Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates' unpleasant run-in with the criminal justice system. After all, it would hardly be the first time a black man had unjustly been hauled to jail by a white police officer. The debate — really more of a shouting match — is also about power and entitlement. This is a new twist. Since the triumph of the civil rights movement, minorities have been moving up the ladder in politics, business, academia, just about every field. Only in the past decade, however, has a...

There is no owner’s manual for the Oval Office, no school to learn how to be a president. Perhaps most challenging for any new president is learning how powerful that megaphone really is. Every offhand word, every spontaneous remark, every comment informed more by emotion than calculation risks profound consequences.

As NewsBuster Geoffrey Dickens has noted, Ben Affleck appeared on yesterday evening's edition of Hardball. And while it's true that the actor/director/Dem activist offered a generally innocuous analysis, he did manage to engage in a bit of religious bigotry. Affleck's foul foray arose in the course of his discussion of the way the various Republican candidates have dealt with the issue of evolution and creationism. Talk turned to the former governor of Arkansas. BEN AFFLECK: I think Huckabee actually framed his position in a much less dramatic way than had been made out. Which was he said it could...

General Colin Powell, one of the nation's most prominent African-American leaders, put some of the blame on Harvard scholar Henry Louis Gates Jr. for the confrontation that has become a raging controversy. Asked in an interview airing on CNN's "Larry King Live" tonight whether Gates was wrong to confront Cambridge police Sergeant James Crowley before being arrested in his own home, Powell replied, "I'm saying that Skip, perhaps in this instance, might have waited a while, come outside, talked to the officer, and that might have been the end of it. "I think he should have reflected on whether or...

The ethically-challenged "ethicist" of the New York Times Magazine, Randy Cohen, who writes The Ethicist column has inserted himself into the Henry Louis Gates situation by urging the Harvard professor to sue in order to "pursue social justice." To see where Mr. Ethicist is coming from, let us start off with his laughable money quote in his current column on the subject of lawsuits: Gates should enjoy a cool one and then file suit, assuming he has legal grounds to do so. We Americans are often mocked for being overly litigious, but we are not nearly litigious enough. In the...

The now-infamous Gates story has gone through the familiar media spin-cycle: incident, reaction, response, so on and so forth. Drowned out of this echo chamber has been an all-too-important (and legally controlling) aspect: the imbroglio between Harvard Professor Henry Louis Gates, Jr., and Cambridge Police Sgt. James Crowley has more to do with the limits (or breadth) of the First Amendment than with race and social class. The issue is not how nasty the discourse between the two might have been, but whether what Professor Gates said--assuming, for argument's sake, the officer's version of events as fact--could by any stretch...

After dropping her young daughter with a baby sitter, Taquana Harris rushed to her hostess job at the fashionable Bowery Bar one night last February, her leopard-print evening gown sweeping elegantly through the dark, icy streets of the East Village. Then a strange woman crudely grabbed her by the arm and demanded to know what she had done with the drugs. Within seconds, Ms. Harris recalled, she found herself pinned to the steel grating of a bodega by two plainclothes officers engaged in a neighborhood drug sweep.

In the aftermath of the mass shooting of a dozen police officers in Dallas this week, some conservatives rushed to lay blame for the incident at the feet of the Obama administration. Former Republican congressman Joe Walsh said on Twitter that "Obama's words & [Black Lives Matter]'s deeds have gotten cops killed." Rep. Roger Williams (R-Tex.) said, "the spread of misinformation and constant instigation by prominent leaders, including our president" contributed to the killings. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) said the shooting had "roots" in the "anti-white/cop events illuminated by Obama." These statements are part of a broader narrative of a...

In case you missed it last night, Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke made an appearance on CNN with cop killer advocate and CNN commentator Marc Lamont Hill to discuss the recent execution of Harris County Sheriff Deputy Daron Goforth at a Houston area gas station.Sheriff Clarke is holding the #BlackLivesMatter responsible for fueling a war on cops with their rhetoric. Over the weekend, #BlackLivesMatter activists in Minnesota chanted, "Pigs in a blanket, fry em' like bacon.""This is part of a pattern now. You would have to stick your head in the sand to think that this thing here wasn't fueled...