Free Republic

Regular readers may recall that I have occasionally declared the Claremont Review of Books (subscribe here) to be my favorite magazine. The Fall issue is in the mail and the Claremont folks have once again let me select two pieces from the new issue to preview. First up is James Keller's "Is Deregulation to Blame?" In the review Keller evaluates two new books on cause of the financial crisis. Taking issue with Judge Richard Posner'sA Failure of Capitalism, Keller asserts that the financial crisis wasn't caused by financial deregulation. The solution to the crisis is therefore not more regulation. The...

In an interview with Bloomberg Friday morning Bob Toll, CEO of Toll Brothers, says the housing market is “coming back”. He sees the pressures in real estate alleviating as consumers rebound and government programs help boost up the market. Toll says we’re on the verge of a “serious good time”: I don’t see prices going down any longer. I think you’re gonna see them start to go up. As they accelerate we’ll get closer to a serious good time again, but we’re not there yet. Despite this, the Toll Brothers CEO has dumped hundreds of millions in stock and company...

New Geography, the online magazine created by Joel Kotkin and others with a special focus on demographics and trends, has been tracking the implosion of California in an interesting way: by comparing it to Texas. Texas and California are America’s two most populous states, together numbering approximately 55 million people, which is only about 6 million less than the United Kingdom, where I live. California, as everyone knows, has a coolness factor that Texas cannot match. Hollywood, Silicon Valley, and wine. Say no more. But, unless one has been living in a cave, everyone knows that the cool state is...

... In its efforts to prop up a shattered housing market, the government is greatly extending its traditional support of real estate, including guaranteeing the mortgages of middle-class and even upper-class buyers against default. In 2007, the government did not insure a single mortgage in [San Francisco], one of the most expensive in the country. Buyers here, as well as in Manhattan, Santa Monica and every other wealthy area, were presumed to be able to handle the steep prices and correspondingly hefty down payments on their own. Now the government is guaranteeing an average of six mortgages a week here....

"HE SEEMS TO SPEND 10 MINUTES writing his columns," observes Columbia Business School Professor Charles Calomiris, "and he makes up his facts as he goes along." The object of the professor's low opinion is [NYT] columnist Paul Krugman. Three years ago, I published a book called Econospinning, with several chapters devoted to Krugman's gaffes. I guess that prompted the Nobel committee to give him the prize, thereby magnifying his enormous influence. So perhaps a brief update on Krugmania is in order. No, his coverage isn't always misleading or misinformed. But let's say an expert in science were to tell me...

America’s mainstream religious denominations used to teach the faithful that they would be rewarded in the afterlife. But over the past generation, a different strain of Christian faith has proliferated—one that promises to make believers rich in the here and now. Known as the prosperity gospel, and claiming tens of millions of adherents, it fosters risk-taking and intense material optimism. It pumped air into the housing bubble. And one year into the worst downturn since the Depression, it’s still going strong. ... America’s churches always reflect shifts in the broader culture, and Casa del Padre is no exception. The message...

Home prices are on the rise across Asia Fears about the battered real estate market give way to bubble concerns By Kevin Brown Friday, November 6, 2009 SINGAPORE -- Residential property prices are rising across much of Asia, prompting fears of a real estate bubble. Apartments are selling for staggering prices, and central banks and finance ministries have begun to rein in property-related stimulus measures. It seems like only yesterday that prices were falling. Now fears are rising once again that property investors could be in for a hard landing, destroying personal wealth and delaying the economic recovery. In Hong...

Here it comes, more artificial support for the housing market. You can't blame people for speculating on houses when they know the government will come in and try to save them. So here we are again, warping market expectations and sowing the seeds for the next housing bubble with an extension and expansion of the homebuyer tax credits. NYT: The Senate might pass its version as early as Wednesday, and aides to Congressional leaders say the House could accept it this week, sending the bill to President Obama to sign into law. After weeks of partisan delay in the Senate,...

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Coporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders. The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring. [And they did] Fannie Mae,...

Just about everyone has become familiar with America’s foreclosure capitals – metropolitan areas like Las Vegas with the nation’s highest rate of foreclosed properties (1 in 20) or No. 2 Merced, Calif., (1 in 27). But the problem is expanding to new cities. In fact, as the subprime-mortgage crisis eases for some of the top metro areas, like Merced and No. 3 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., economic pressures are creating new foreclosure capitals. One of them, Reno-Sparks, Nev., broke into the Top 10 foreclosure metros in the third quarter, according to a RealtyTrac report released Thursday. And others are gaining...

Without question, Tejada's loan is toxic--to her and to the taxpayers who are backing the loan.... In case you're not in tune with exactly where housing prices are set to keep plunging like an overworked plumber for the next several years, it's... drumroll please... California. And if (or, to be more accurate, when) she gets sick, or loses a job, or gets into an auto accident, or simply can't sell her house for what she needs to sell it for, you get to help cover the losses! Aren't you excited?

William White predicted the approaching financial crisis years before 2007's subprime meltdown. But central bankers preferred to listen to his great rival Alan Greenspan instead, with devastating consequences for the global economy. William White had a pretty clear idea of what he wanted to do with his life after shedding his pinstriped suit and entering retirement. White, a Canadian, worked for various central banks for 39 years, most recently serving as chief economist for the central bank for all central bankers, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), headquartered in Basel, Switzerland. Then, after 15 years in the world's most secretive...

Amherst Sees 7m Foreclosures Poised to Distress House Prices By DIANA GOLOBAY September 24, 2009 10:34 AM CST Advertisements Recent analysis by the Amherst Securities Group indicates the housing industry will not only worsen as a delayed pipeline of foreclosed loans begins to liquidate, but that the Administration’s Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) will have no lasting effect on keeping delinquent loans current. The early signs of stabilization seen among housing industry observers may soon recede as an overhang of the shadow inventory of foreclosures waits to enter the market. The general outlook that the housing market has bottomed...

Today the President went to Wall Street where he laid out his vision of the countries economic future First, we're proposing new rules to protect consumers and a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency to enforce those rules. This crisis was not just the result of decisions made by the mightiest of financial firms. It was also the result of decisions made by ordinary Americans to open credit cards and take on mortgages. And while there were many who took out loans they knew they couldn't afford, there were also millions of Americans who signed contracts they didn't fully understand offered...

Only 12 percent of U.S. homeowners eligible for loan modifications under the Obama administration's housing rescue plan have had their mortgages reworked, and millions more foreclosures are coming, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday. A Treasury report showed 360,165 people had their monthly payments reduced through August, up from 235,247 through July, but a senior Treasury official conceded much more must be done to soften the impact of a severe and prolonged housing crisis.

Whatever faults the Republican Party has had, the basic problem has been that many Republican politicians forgot what they were supposed to stand for once they gained office. The program of the Democratic Party, however, is entirely based on lies and deceptions. Most of the time they are afraid to let voters know what they really stand for. Right now they are trying hard to pass a "public option" disguised as something else so voters won't realize what they are doing. It is against this backdrop that concerned Americans not forget the origins of the housing and financial crisis that...

Democratic Party senators, Chris Dodd and Kent Conrad were "caught" receiving Sub-Prime "VIP" Loans from lender Countrywide Inc. The Loans were at favorable interest rates. Despite the fact that the lender has testified that both men knew that they were getting a sweetheart deal, Senator Dodd claims he didn't know he was getting favorable rates. This revelation came from Robert Feinberg, the official who handled their loans in testimony to congress. According to the Washington Post:Dodd got two Countrywide mortgages in 2003, refinancing his home in Connecticut and another residence in Washington. Conrad's two Countrywide mortgages in 2004 were for...

It's 3 p.m. on a recent weekday, and Andy Brantley, 24, and Eli Montague, 23, are relaxing on blue, oversized couches, watching “SportsCenter” on a 40-inch, flat-panel TV. Montague's SUV is one of the only cars left on Idlewood Circle, a quiet, tree-lined street between Park Road and Freedom Park. Most of the neighbors are at work. Brantley will have to leave in a couple of hours for his part-time job as a busboy at a nearby bar. Montague – who interns for the Panthers – plans to spend the afternoon playing Xbox 360 at the $375,000 house the roommates...

Who’s to blame for the subprime housing bubble? A popular answer – especially on the right side of the aisle - is Massachusetts Democrat, Barney Frank. Why? The argument, best summed up in an Investor's Business Daily editorial published in March 2009, goes like this: "Starting in the early 1990s," Rep. Barney Frank "(and other Democrats) stood athwart efforts by regulators, Congress and the White House to get the runaway housing market under control." It goes on to say in, "2002, Frank nixed reforms" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that in 2003, "led by Frank, Democrats stood as...

Who’s to blame for the subprime housing bubble? A popular answer – especially on the right side of the aisle - is Massachusetts Democrat, Barney Frank. Is it true? Frank doesn't think so. .. Frank not only denies it, he shifts the blame to the Bush administration. When it came to a Republican bill to reform Fannie and Freddie, President Bush gave his own party "the one finger salute," he colorfully says. Second, Democrats not only did not cause the crisis, they were aginst subprime lending all together: . . Finally, the real estate crash was not something even the...

This Past Tuesday the Republican Members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform released a staff report that provides the reasons for the Housing Bubble Burst 2007. The Report finds that the housing bubble burst that led to a financial crisis can be traced back to federal government intervention, pushed by the Democratic party, in the U.S. housing market. “The spin on the financial crisis by those who favored government efforts to erode lending standards is that the housing bubble didn’t cause this recession,” said Rep. Darrell Issa the Committee’s Ranking Member. “The findings in this report should...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were the chief culprits in the housing crisis because they encouraged people who could not afford payments to borrow money, according to a congressional report released Tuesday. The claims in the report have long been advanced by conservatives, who argue that the Community Reinvestment Act and other federal programs fed the housing bubble that burst in 2007 and led to the economic downfall in 2008. But the report explains in detail how Fannie and Freddie -- government sponsored enterprises (GSE) that were not subject to the same oversight as other publicly traded firms -- “privatized...

In a stunning report (pdf) released yesterday by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, the current financial crisis was traced back to government intervention in the U.S. housing market.  Yes, you read that right.   The report issued by the Republican minority didn’t disclose the names of the culprit individuals, but it sure pointed a lot of fingers at organizations, politicians, lobbyists and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. According to the report, government intervention “created ‘affordable’ but dangerous lending policies which encouraged lower down payments, looser underwriting standards and higher leverage.  Finally, government intervention created a nexus of vested interests...

As a people we need, at all times, the encouragement of home ownership. HERBERT HOOVER, 1932The idea that home ownership confers special benefits on American society is deeply embedded in our culture—so much so that our national tax policy confers a special benefit of its own on it. Home ownership is granted an advantage over all other forms of ownership in the form of an enormous deduction on the interest payments most individuals incur in financing their homes. Nothing else in the tax code comes anywhere near that deduction in scope or size. We have decided, as a nation, that home...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were the chief culprits in the housing crisis because they encouraged people who could not afford payments to borrow money, according to a congressional report released Tuesday. The claims in the report have long been advanced by conservatives, who argue that the Community Reinvestment Act and other federal programs fed the housing bubble that burst in 2007 and led to the economic downfall in 2008. But the report explains in detail how Fannie and Freddie -- government sponsored enterprises (GSE) that were not subject to the same oversight as other publicly traded firms -- “privatized...

New appraisal rules under fire Critics charge that a new system is fostering the use of appraisers willing to work for low fees and who are willing to conduct home appraisals far outside their typical areas of activity, leading to low-ball appraisals that can hurt builders, real estate agents, consumers and lenders. By Kenneth R. Harney Syndicated columnist WASHINGTON — It's by far the hottest controversy in real estate this summer and it could directly affect the value of your house — probably negatively — by tens of thousands of dollars. The issue concerns lowballed valuations and the new rules...

Earlier this week I noted that I had changed my mind on the Community Reinvestment Act. Contrary to my initial conclusion, the evidence is overwhelming that the CRA played a significant role in creating lax lending standards that fueled the housing bubble. Once I realized this, I had to abandon my suspicion that the anti-CRA case was a figment of the rhetoric of Republicans attempting to distract attention from their own role in the mortgage mess. So I laid out the facts and arguments that had convinced me to switch sides in the CRA debate. It was a long series...

Barney Frank was a leading opponent of the regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Frank never made to answer about how we got into the present crisis. Why he fought so hard to squash regulation or why he pushed Fannie and Freddie to get involved with making loans to people who could not afford them? Because he was never confronted, he has been empowered to go at it again. In March, Fannie Mae announced it would no longer guarantee mortgages on condos in buildings where fewer than 70 percent of the units have been sold, up from 51 percent,...

Last Monday evening, Lew Rockwell, from a tip by someone named "Travis," posted this damning quote of Paul Krugman's from a 2002 New York Times editorial: "To fight this recession the Fed needs…soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. [So] Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." Krugman. 2002. Calling for a housing bubble. What's more, by explicitly calling for a new bubble to replace the recently burst one, he anticipated by 6 years the Onion's hilarious "report" that "demand for a new investment bubble began months ago, when the subprime mortgage bubble...

In parts of Southern California, the housing crash has upended a basic tenet of the American dream: that home values always increase over the long term. Properties in several areas are selling for less than they did 20 years ago, and that's not even counting the effects of inflation. Losing two decades' worth of gains in a single downturn "has never happened," said UCLA economist Edward Leamer, who has studied local areas during booms and busts. "You're seeing something that's abnormal." In the 1990s housing bust, "you had a foreclosure here, a foreclosure there. You did not have almost entire...

There has been much confusion with all of the different explanations as to how we got ourselves into this housing collapse. The following is a simple story that may shed some light on the events. Big Jimmy’s Liquor Store had been a fixture in Jonesville for over twenty years. Big Jimmy was as you might suspect, a rather robust, affable man, who never met a stranger. Small town life suited him just fine and he felt like he was friends with the entire town. One of his close friends, Clive, started up Clive’s Liquor Store about ten years ago. There...

NEW YORK (AP) -- An industry report shows that a record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit. The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday the foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans doubled in the last year, and now represents the largest share of new foreclosures. Nearly 6 percent of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit were in the foreclosure process. At the same time, almost half of all adjustable-rate loans to borrowers with shaky credit were past due or in foreclosure....

Thomas Sowell on how government policies made the housing crisis possible Thomas Sowell, prolific public intellectual and the Rose and Milton Friedman Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, is one of America's greatest economic thinkers and educators. He's taught the fundamentals through such books as Economic Facts and Fallacies and Basic Economics and chronicled economic history through such scholarly works as Marxism: Philosophy and Economics and On Classical Economics. In his classic work Knowledge and Decisions, he espoused a sophisticated, largely Hayekian approach, revealing how the efficient spread of relevant knowledge is shaped by our social institutions, and often warped...

The boom-and-bust cycle in the U.S. housing market over the past decade and a half has generated greater gains and larger losses for minority groups than it has for whites, according to an analysis of housing, economic and demographic data by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. From 1995 through the middle of this decade, homeownership rates rose more rapidly among all minorities than among whites. But since the start of the housing bust in 2005, rates have fallen more steeply for two of the nation’s largest minority groups—blacks and native-born Latinos—than for the rest...

After virtually every disaster created by Beltway politicians you can hear the sound of feet scurrying for cover in Washington, see fingers pointing in every direction away from Washington, and watch all sorts of scapegoats hauled up before Congressional committees to be denounced on television for the disasters created by members of the committee who are lecturing them. The word repeated endlessly in these political charades is "deregulation." The idea is that it was a lack of government supervision which allowed "greed" in the private sector to lead the nation into crises that only our Beltway saviors can solve. What...

After a decade of growth, the gains made in homeownership by African Americans and native-born Latinos have been eroding faster than those for whites, according to a report released Tuesday by the Pew Hispanic Center. The numbers indicate that the gains for minority groups, achieved between 1994 and 2004, were disproportionately tied to relaxed lending standards and subprime loan products, and that those gains are now being reversed. The exception to the pattern was foreign-born Latinos, whose rate of homeownership, while low, has stalled in the downturn but has not fallen. Since 2004, homeownership for all Americans has declined to...

GWB 2002 Speech :�More and more people own their homes in America today. Yet we have a problem here in America because fewer than half the Hispanics and African Americans own their own homes. That’s a home ownership gap; a gap that we got to work together to close. And by the end of this decade we’ll increase the number of minority homeowners (future Obama voters ) by 5.5 million families. “ “One of the major obstacles to minority home-ownership is financing. Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac (who I will bail out in 2008) have committed to provide more money...

Two years away from the peak of the great housing bubble, the talk has turned to whether we've reached a bottom. And whenever there is talk of a bottom, there is the inevitable talk of recovery, the speculation about just how long -- five years? 10? -- it will take for us to get back to where we were. Even at this point, the idea that there is simply no going back -- not for decades -- is still hard to stomach for Americans who have never seen or imagined a more or less permanent drop in value of housing....

-- snip -- But what sparks bubbles? Why does one large asset bubble -- like our dot-com bubble -- do no damage to the financial system while another one leads to its collapse? Key characteristics of housing markets -- momentum trading, liquidity, price-tier movements, and high-margin purchases -- combine to provide a fairly complete, simple description of the housing bubble collapse, and how it engulfed the financial system and then the wider economy...

Moody, S&P, Fitch? All the financial deliverables swapped on the market, prior to their offering were credit rated for the investors. How come the junk were give "A" and "B" ratings that were junk. http://www.bondsonline.com/Bond_Ratings_Definitions.php

MONTEREY, Calif. -- For years, interpreter Yu Ching ended many calls by saying, "Congratulations. You have been approved," as she helped credit-card companies and mortgage lenders reach a growing share of the Mandarin-speaking market in the U.S. But on a recent morning, the call-center interpreter didn't have the last word. "You're sending me off a cliff," shrieked a woman, after Ms. Ching relayed a bank official's refusal to let the woman avert foreclosure by selling her house for less than the value of her mortgage. Ms. Ching, and legions like her, occupy unique listening posts in a changing economy. During...

It's become conventional wisdom that Alan Greenspan's Federal Reserve was responsible for the housing crisis. Virtually every commentator who blames Mr. Greenspan points to the low interest rates during his last few years at the Fed. [Commentary] Martin Kozlowski The link seems obvious. Everyone knows that the Fed can drive interest rates lower by pumping more money into the economy, right? Well, yes. But it doesn't follow that that's why interest rates were so low in the early 2000s. Other factors affect interest rates too. In particular, a sudden increase in savings will drive down interest rates. And such a...

Yesterday, the Obama administration announced the appointment of David Stevens to run the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The appointment got little attention from the media, but his Senate confirmation hearing might prove more interesting. Stevens will have to explain his work for Freddie Mac in the years when the mortgage giant fueled a lending frenzy, mostly through Stevens’ own work on a program called Home Possible.*****************************snip************************** Stevens’ experience at Freddie Mac should prove instructive. The Home Possible program that Stevens launched practically gives a blueprint for the housing-bubble collapse and the government’s role in it:

Immigrants Can Help Fix the Housing Bubble By RICHARD S. LEFRAK and A. GARY SHILLING The Obama administration should seriously consider granting resident status to foreigners who buy surplus houses in this country. This makes more sense than the president's $275 billion housing bailout plan, which Americans greeted with a Bronx cheer. The federal bailout forces taxpayers to subsidize overextended homeowners who bet on ever-rising house prices and used their abodes as ATMs, and it doesn't get to the basic problem -- the huge inventory of excess houses. We estimate that 2.4 million houses over and above normal working inventories...

We are in the midst of a global crisis that will unquestionably rank as the most virulent since the 1930s. It will eventually subside and pass into history. But how the interacting and reinforcing causes and effects of this severe contraction are interpreted will shape the reconfiguration of our currently disabled global financial system. There are at least two broad and competing explanations of the origins of this crisis. The first is that the "easy money" policies of the Federal Reserve produced the U.S. housing bubble that is at the core of today's financial mess. The second, and far more...

As the housing bubble burst and trillions of dollars' worth of toxic mortgages began to go bad in 2007, fear spread through the massive firms that form the heart of Wall Street. By the spring of 2008, burdened by billions of dollars of bad mortgages, the investment bank Bear Stearns was the subject of rumors that it would soon fail. "Rumors are such that they can just plain put you out of business," Bear Stearns' former CEO Alan "Ace" Greenberg tells FRONTLINE. The company's stock had dropped from $171 to $57 a share, and it was hours from declaring bankruptcy....

video 3 minuted 47 seconds For the second time this decade, the U.S. economy is sinking into a recession due to the collapse of a financial bubble. The most recent calamity will lead to a downturn deeper and longer than the stock market crash of 2001. Dean Baker’s Plunder and Blunder chronicles the growth and collapse of the stock and housing bubbles and explains how policy blunders and greed led to the catastrophic—but completely predictable—market meltdowns. An expert guide to recent economic history, Baker offers policy prescriptions to help prevent similar financial disasters.

There's no question the American consumer is hurting in the face of a burst housing bubble, financial market meltdown and rising unemployment. But "the worst is yet to come," according to Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, who believes American's standard of living is undergoing a "permanent change" - and not for the better as a result of: An $8 trillion negative wealth effect from declining home values. A $10 trillion negative wealth effect from weakened capital markets. A $14 trillion consumer debt load amid "exploding unemployment", leading to "exploding bankruptcies." "The average American used to be able to...

Two narratives seem to be forming to describe the underlying causes of the financial crisis. One, as outlined in a New York Times front-page story on Sunday, December 21, is that President Bush excessively promoted growth in home ownership without sufficiently regulating the banks and other mortgage lenders that made the bad loans. The result was a banking system suffused with junk mortgages, the continuing losses on which are dragging down the banks and the economy. The other narrative is that government policy over many years--particularly the use of the Community Reinvestment Act and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to...

... A North County Times investigation into thousands of foreclosure records, along with interviews with buyers, reveals a pattern that suggests some real estate agents specialized in clients ---- chiefly Latinos ---- who couldn't afford to buy homes, and helped them buy as many as possible. (Please see "Behind the Numbers" for more on the statistical analysis. ) Some of their customers say the agents posted fliers in low-income apartment buildings and held seminars that encouraged people to get rich by buying and selling multiple properties, usually with low or no down payments. In North County, 6 percent of about...