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WASHINGTON -- It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats - their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Sure, chances of Republicans retaining the White House are remote. But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states - Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too. If the tightening polls are correct...

<p>President Obama? Not so fast, says The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber. John McCain doesn’t need a “catastrophic external event” to defeat Obama on Election Day, Scheiber says.</p> <p>“I happen to think Obama’s chances of winning are upward of 80 percent,” he writes at The Plank, his magazine’s political blog. He later adds, “But, truth be told, I can imagine a losing scenario that doesn’t involve outside events. It goes something like this: Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, giving him 264 electoral votes, then narrowly loses the rest of the red states where he’s currently competitive.”</p>

But a group called National Popular Vote says it has found another way. So far, it has persuaded four Democratic-controlled legislatures (in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, and New Jersey) to pass a law which commits those states to give their electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote. The accord takes effect once states with a combined 270 electoral votes agree to it. The states would pledge to award their electoral votes to the popular vote winner even if he or she had not been the majority choice in their state.

In spite of the best efforts of social science teachers over many decades, few Americans understand the purpose or function of the Electoral College. The Founding Fathers had some very specific reasons for creating the Electoral College. Aside from their insistence that the president and vice president be elected by the states... not by the people and not by the state legislatures... their primary concern was that a foreign power might one day attempt to achieve through corruption and political intrigue, that which they could not achieve on the battlefield. As Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist Paper No. 68, “These...

Suppose Obama wins the balloting on Nov 4th. Suppose that it is revealed that he is not a "natural born citizen," or that there was massive election fraud, after the votes are certified by the individual states, but before the Electoral College meets. Now it is my understanding that the Electoral College electors can vote Obama POTUS anyway. The question is this: does the Supreme Court have any jurisdiction in this matter? specifically any jurisdiction before the inauguration? can the Supreme Court nullify an election for cause before the Electoral College meets? or after the Electoral College votes, but before...

NOTE: IT IS WORTH READING THE ENTIRE ARTICLE. It is very interesting. What if the court determines, after the election, that Obama is Kenyan and ineligible for the presidency? +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Dead by Election Day What happens if a presidential candidate passes away at the last second? By Nina Shen Rastogi Posted Monday, Sept. 29, 2008, at 6:54 PM ET excerpt: The outcome would be a little more straightforward—though not necessarily more politically satisfying—if the candidate dies between the general election on Nov. 4 but before the Electoral College votes on Dec. 15. There's no federal law that mandates how electors...

*SNIP* As some of you might already have surmised, exposing the cause of our shameful irrelevance allows me to resume one of my favorite crusades: bashing the Electoral College. First, though, allow me to applaud the swing states. According to CNN, there are seven: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Those states hold a combined 100 electoral votes. CNN projects 264 electoral votes from states that are “safe” or “leaning” toward Barack Obama, and 174 for John McCain. (Liberals can learn more by visiting www.cnn.com/election/2008/ calculator. As for McCain supporters, don’t be confused or intimidated by all...

PEORIA — Calling the Electoral College "antiquated," U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood told junior high school students individual votes for president don't count, and the current system should be changed. "All these people in America are going to go out and vote on Election Day 30 days from now and the truth is that their vote doesn't really count because it's the Electoral College who will decide who the next president is," LaHood told about 130 students Wednesday at Holy Family School. Earlier this year, Illinois became the third state to support choosing the president by the nation's popular vote instead...

- What if it's a tie? A handful of battleground states are likely to determine the Nov. 4 U.S. presidential election and it's possible that Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama could split them in a manner that leaves each just short of victory. If that happens, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would pick the president but it's unclear whether Democrats would have enough votes to send Obama to the White House. The House last decided an election in 1824. But the legal skirmishing and partisan rancor would probably resemble a more recent election -- the 2000 vote in...

This is looking uglier & uglier: Obama/Biden 353 McCain/Palin 185

Here's the state of the US Presidential race based on the Electoral College estimates as garnered from aggregate statistics taken from various polls as at Sep 27,2008 ( again, you need 270 electoral votes to win ) : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

On Nov. 5, the presidential election winds up in a electoral-college tie, 269-269, the Democrat-controlled House picks Sen. Barack Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie to make Republican Sarah Palin his successor. "Wow," said longtime presidential historian Stephen Hess. "Wow, that would be amazing, wouldn't it?" "If this scenario ever happened, it would be like a scene from the movie 'Scream' for Democrats," said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. "The only thing worse for the Democrats than losing...

Note this map has the colors reversed. Blue = McCain. Red = Obama

Battleground Update: The Red States Get Redder, The Blue States Get Purpler Andrew Romano One week ago today, I launched Stumper's general-election coverage with an in-depth look at where the "Race for the White House" stood in the wake of the Democratic and Republican nominating conventions. While the national polls had swung about 9 points in John McCain's direction since the Democrats left Denver, the Real Clear Politics electoral map still tilted every so slightly toward Barack Obama, 273 to 265. But the Illinois senator's slim lead was hardly set in stone--as I noted at the time. "No battleground state...

This may the sleeper issue of the election. The MSM and the Democrats have forgotten all about it. A number of Blue States passed laws requiring the state's electoral votes to be awarded to the nationwide popular vote winner REGARDLESS of who actually wins the statewide popular vote. Please list them here in this thread!

Karl Rove is so powerful, he is probably toying with the Libs by putting out these maps showing Obama anywhere near winning this thing. We all know he will draw upon all the powers of heaven and earth (or hell if you are a Dem) and put McPalin over the top in November. For now, though, he shows an interesting dynamic.

State-by-State Changes Last 3 MonthsDate State Previous Status Current Status RCP Electoral Count RCP National Avg. 09/13 Indiana Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain Obama 217 - McCain 227 McCain +2.3 09/11 Florida Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain Obama 217 - McCain 216 McCain +2.5 09/11 North Carolina Leaning McCain »»» Solid McCain Obama 217 - McCain 216 McCain +2.5 09/11 Georgia Leaning McCain »»» Solid McCain Obama 217 - McCain 216 McCain +2.5 09/09 North Carolina Toss Up »»» Leaning McCain Obama 217 - McCain 189 McCain +2.4 Click Here for Previous Electoral College Changes Obama 217, McCain 227, Toss...

New Jersey Rejects Electoral College Two States Have Now Joined Compact To Give Their Votes To Winner Of The Popular Vote =============== (AP) New Jersey on Sunday became the second state to enter a compact that would eliminate the Electoral College's power to choose a president if enough states endorse the idea. Gov. Jon S. Corzine signed legislation that approves delivering the state's 15 electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. The Assembly approved the bill last month and the Senate followed suit earlier this month. Maryland - with 10 electoral votes - had been the only...

"If the major competitive states are split, we could be talking about a situation where one electoral vote matters," said Randall Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. Only Nebraska and Maine divide their electoral votes, though the votes have never actually been split. Obama has opened a campaign office in Omaha to make a play for the electoral vote decided by results in the 2nd Congressional District, which would be essential to victory if the election ended in a 269-269 electoral tie, neither candidate reaching the mandatory 270 electoral votes.

The Electoral College is the only thing. Recent national polls say the presidential race is ultra-close. But the number that counts is electoral votes: Whoever gets 270 wins the White House. That race -- the one that counts -- is nearly tied as well: Polling firm Rasmussen Reports says Democrat Barack Obama has about 193 electoral votes in hand right now, while Republican John McCain has about 183. That includes states that are either strongly in one camp or the other, as well as states that are said to be leaning one way or the other. Even more significant is...

OLYMPIA -- State senators have approved a bill that would deliver the state's electoral votes to the U.S. presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote. The bill, which passed 30-18 Monday, now heads to the House. The bill would change Washington's current system of typically giving all of the state's electoral votes to the candidate who wins the statewide election to awarding all of the state's delegates to the national popular vote winner. Almost every state has considered a similar bill. Maryland and New Jersey have passed such a measure. The proposal would take effect only if enough states...

WASHINGTON (AP) — The 2008 Republican platform, in language that is hostile to illegal immigrants, says the makeup of Congress should be determined by counting only those legally residing in the United States in the next census. "The integrity of the 2010 census, proportioning congressional representation among the states, must be preserved," says the platform language, which is a reinterpretation of the Constitution that could affect how congressional seats are apportioned. "The census," it says, "should count every person legally abiding in the United States in an actual enumeration." The 14th Amendment of the Constitution, ratified in 1868, says representatives...

Electoral College Map could lead to a tie.

July 30, 2008 - The Massachusetts Senate passed the National Popular Vote bill on third reading (and engrossment). Immediately beforehand, a crippling amendment was defeated by a vote of 27 to 9. Under Massachusetts legislative procedures, an additional vote is required in both the House and Senate to transmit the bill to the Governor. Although this vote was on the agenda on the session's last day (July 31), no action was taken. On July 9, 2008, the Massachusetts House of Representatives passed the National Popular Vote bill. National Popular Vote bill passes Massachusetts House 116-37 Massachusetts House of Representatives On...

California legislators have approved legislation to circumvent the Electoral College. But the measure could face a veto from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The bill by Senator Carole Migden, a San Francisco Democrat, would ratify an interstate agreement in which states award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. That would avoid a repeat of the 2000 election, when George Bush won the presidency but not the popular vote.

CHARLESTON — Though the political sands can shift before November, the leading national analysts who dabble in Electoral College math appear uniformly certain that presumptive Republican presidential candidate John McCain can count on West Virginia’s five electoral votes. The scant attention paid it by McCain and Democrat Barack Obama has helped bring home the realization that the Mountain State is not the battleground it was during the last two races for the White House. By this time in 2004, for instance, President George Bush and Democrat John Kerry had each headlined three full-fledged events in the state since that year’s...

Outlook The precarious state of the economy has eclipsed the presidential election as the principal topic of conversation among politicians in Washington. The shaky condition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (see below) shows how far the subprime crisis goes with the danger of more banking failures threatening the whole economic structure.

(Fourth in a series of ten) Most Americans don’t know there was another U.S. government before the Constitution was drafted. Simplified books and courses leave out the Articles of Confederation, the government of the United States for its first eleven years. There were several fatal defects in the Articles of Confederation, and one was its presidency. Concerned with the dangerous powers of the king of England and monarchies generally, the first dramers created a presidency which was too weak. The "President of the United States in Congress Assembled" was elected for a one-year term by Congress itself. That "President" had...

OVER THE LAST two centuries, constitutional amendments to abolish or alter the Electoral College have been proposed in Congress more than 700 times. None has ever come close to being adopted - an indication, perhaps, of the existing system's enduring value. The most recent such proposal, introduced by US Senator Bill Nelson of Florida, would eliminate the Electoral College in favor of direct popular election of the president. "If the principle of one-person-one-vote is to mean anything," Nelson declares, "the candidate who wins a majority of the votes should win the presidency."

Election 2008 Latest Polls

Backers of the popular vote do not seek to amend the Constitution; they know this is a nonstarter. Instead, a growing "National Popular Vote" (NPV) movement wants state legislatures to instruct their electors to vote for the winner of the greatest number of popular votes in the national election -- regardless of the ballots cast by voters in their own states. Massachusetts (12 electoral votes) may enact an NPV law as early as next week. Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and Hawaii (with a total of 50 electoral votes) have already signed on. It's being considered in North Carolina, Rhode Island...

With their appeal to independents, Barack Obama and John McCain may scramble the electoral map in November. Others want to go further and throw out the Electoral College completely, replacing this "complicated" and "undemocratic" system with a direct, nationwide popular vote for the presidency. Despite its democratic allure, it's a bad idea. Backers of the popular vote do not seek to amend the Constitution; they know this is a nonstarter. Instead, a growing "National Popular Vote" (NPV) movement wants state legislatures to instruct their electors to vote for the winner of the greatest number of popular votes in the national...

Massachusetts Presidential Voting System Could Be Changed!!!! The Massachusetts House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on a bill Wednesday, July 9, 2008 that would change the way Presidents are elected. If passed, H.678 "An Act Relative To The Agreement Among States To Elect The President By National Popular Vote" would place Massachusetts into a group of states that would elect the President and Vice President via a popular vote system. While this is not an obvious Second Amendment bill, it could have a serious impact as it could change who will be appointing future Supreme Court Justices. Currently the...

Dukakis calls for end to Electoral College Dave Wedge By Dave Wedge Tuesday, July 8, 2008 Calling it “critically important” to eliminate the Electoral College system, former Bay State Gov. Michael Dukakis called on lawmakers to join a growing number of states supporting a switch to a national popular vote to elect the president. “I think it is high time we got rid of the Electoral College and elected our presidents the way we elect every other elected official in the country - by a vote of the people,” Dukakis wrote in a letter e-mailed to state lawmakers yesterday. “The...

The constitutional amendment process is a complicated and lengthy affair. This is because we cannot be certain what consequences might arise from a seemingly minor alteration of the Constitution. To be sure, exchanging the electoral-vote system for direct election would adversely impact the entire constitutional and political structure of the United States. To begin, our Constitution is dedicated to securing everybodyÂ’s rights. This requires that we be concerned not only with size, but with the character of the majorities voting our president to office. There are many ways in which our Constitution is configured to prevent simple majorities. â–ª The...

U S Electoral College and its role in electing a president were discussed in the last article. The contests between Senator John McCain and Senator Barrack Obama in the East, North-east and Middle American states are reviewed here. The Eastern coastal belt has favored the Democrats traditionally. Middle America is strongly Republican. There are eight key states many consider consequential to the final outcome in 2008: namely Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The battles being waged in these states will keep everyone engrossed. The match-up is fascinating and 107 delegates are at stake. In 2004...

The Electoral College determines the U S Presidency and not the popular vote. When people vote for Barrack Obama or John McCain in November 2008; in fact, they will be voting to elect an electoral college. For example, if sixteen million California voters give a majority of votes to Obama, he would be entitled to 55 Electoral College votes and McCain zero. Electoral College favored George Bush in 2004 as he won a majority of 286 Electoral College votes from 31 states, while John Kerry won 251 votes from 19 states. These Electoral College delegates met in the first week...

The U.S. would no longer use the Electoral College to choose its presidents under a proposal introduced Friday by Florida's Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. Instead, presidents would be picked by popular vote, a method that would have given former Vice President Al Gore the White House after the contested 2000 election. "It's time for Congress to really give Americans the power of one person, one vote," Nelson said in a statement. But changing the system requires a constitutional amendment and a meat grinder of legislative tests. First, Congress must approve the idea, and then 38 state legislatures must ratify...

WASHINGTON, June 7 (UPI) -- Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., citing the 2000 presidential election, has introduced an amendment to abolish the Electoral College. Nelson, in a release, pointed to the election of President George W. Bush, even though former Vice President Al Gore had more popular votes, The Hill reported. The election was decided in Florida after the U.S. Supreme Court blocked a recount, giving Bush the state and a majority of the Electoral College. Nelson's bill includes the creation of a rotating primary system to avoid disputes like those this year over the Florida and Michigan votes. The Democratic...

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) introduced a constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College on Friday, less than a week after the Democrats settled on how to handle delegates from Florida at their national convention. “It’s time for Congress to really give Americans the power of one-person, one-vote, instead of the political machinery selecting candidates and electing our president,” Nelson said in a release announcing the amendment. Nelson had announced he would offer the legislation in an address to his state’s senate in March. Nelson said his principal argument for making the change is that the Electoral College permits a candidate...

IT appears that Hillary Clinton is going to suspend her presidential campaign this weekend, at the urging of Democratic Party leaders and superdelegates. Before that happens, Mrs. Clinton and the superdelegates might want to know this: if the general election were held today, Barack Obama would lose to John McCain, while Mr. McCain would lose to Mrs. Clinton. This conclusion comes not from wishful thinking but from a new method of analysis on the statistics of polls that has been accepted for publication in the journal Mathematical and Computer Modeling. The authors, J. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton,...

The case they make for a comfortable McCain win is not beyond reason. Begin with the 2004 electoral map. Add Iowa and Colorado to Obama’s side, since both are considered states Obama could pick off. Then count McCain victories in New Hampshire and Michigan, two states where McCain is competitive. In this scenario, McCain wins the Electoral College 291-246, a larger margin than Bush four years ago. If Obama managed only to win Iowa from Republicans and McCain managed only to win Pennsylvania, McCain would still win by a much greater margin than Bush — 300-237. “McCain is in a...

As we see Barack Obama winning certain cities, regions, and demographics by wide margins, and yet also having a tough time in some states with a lot of electoral votes (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida), it's not unthinkable that he could do what Al Gore did in 2000: Win the popular vote, but lose in the Electoral College. James Boyce examined a plausible scenario at the Huffington Post: Barack Obama will win California and New York and all the blue coastal states by huge margins - he will be millions of votes ahead on the basis of New York, California, Illinois...

See http://www.barackobama.com/resultscenter/Hillary has New York, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio and most likely she would have won Florida, those are all must win states for the White House, and Obama has none of them.I love to see an electoral college vote count that ovelays this map.

In a state that has seen its share of electoral problems this decade, Florida’s senior Sen. Bill Nelson made a rare appearance before the state Senate Thursday to unveil sweeping federal election reform legislation that would eliminate the Electoral College. As the state now wrestles with the national Democratic Party to find a solution to seat its 210 delegates at this year’s presidential nominating convention, Nelson noted that “the solution is very elusive,” but that, “If nothing else, this election has provided further evidence that our system is broken.” The Democratic senator, who sued the Democratic National Committee and Chairman...

In a state that has seen its share of electoral problems this decade, Florida’s senior Sen. Bill Nelson made a rare appearance before the state Senate Thursday to unveil sweeping federal election reform legislation that would eliminate the Electoral College. As the state now wrestles with the national Democratic Party to find a solution to seat its 210 delegates at this year’s presidential nominating convention, Nelson noted that “the solution is very elusive,” but that, “If nothing else, this election has provided further evidence that our system is broken.” The Democratic senator, who sued the Democratic National Committee and Chairman...

This redirects the attack on the Electoral College by avoiding the amendment process to the US Constitution.   The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement among U.S. states that would effectively end the electoral college system of presidential elections and replace it with a direct nationwide vote of the people. As of February 2008, this interstate compact has been joined by Maryland and New Jersey; their 25 electoral votes amount to 9.3% of the 270 needed for it to take effect. The compact is based on Article II, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution, which gives each state the...

Secretary of State: Popular Vote Would Encourage More People To Vote HARTFORD, Conn. -- Supporters of a state bill to change the way the nation elects the president turned up at a hearing in large numbers Friday. The bill is aimed at eliminating the Electoral College and allowing the national popular vote to determine the country's president. Eyewitness News reported that no one present at the hearing Friday voiced opposition to the passing of the bill. "We have this system that shuts out over two-thirds of the country including Connecticut," said Connecticut native Barry Fatam, who traveled from California to...

Ôªø Home 2008 Election Results Election Info Weblogs Guestbook Email Forum News Wiki Links Site Info Store The Electoral College Excerpt from an original document located at Jackson County, MO Election Board In order to appreciate the reasons for the Electoral College, it is essential to understand its historical context and the problem that the Founding Fathers were trying to solve. They faced the difficult question of how to elect a president in a nation that: was composed of thirteen large and small States jealous of their own rights and powers and suspicious of any central national government contained only...

Rarely in life does one get to enjoy irony and karma as much as Ted Olson. Having borne the scars of the Gore v Bush lawsuits arising from the 2000 presidential election, Olson now sees a similar outcome, on similar grounds, in the exact same state. Calling it "splendid theater", the incompetent handling of Florida and Michigan likely will combine with a razor-thin delegate chase for the Democratic presidential nomination to produce litigation that will reduce the party to shreds. Don't count Olson among the mourners: "How ironic. For over seven years the Democratic Party has fulminated against the Electoral...