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Nashville, Tenn. -- Newt Gingrich said there are "profound reasons" why Rick Santorum lost his re-election bid in 2006, painting a picture of a two-term senator who took positions that would make it "hard for him to carry that all the way to the general." "He voted for the unions over FedEx," Gingrich told a luncheon of supporters. "I suspect most folks in this state don't know that. But in fact, he was a big labor Republican in Pennsylvania and I suspect when you get to Memphis and you say this is a guy who wanted to guarantee that FedEx...

I keep reading on FR that Rick Santorum is unelectable (although Rasmussen's latest poll has him just 6 points behind Obama in a head-to-head matchup) as they try to justify why they are supporting Newt Gingrich. Santorum is definitely less well-known than the former Speaker, but that's the problem for Newt. He is well-known and not well-liked. Talking Points Memo has a rolling track of Gingrich's favorable/unfavorable numbers in national polls. His favorables are now consistently in the 20-25% range since the Florida primary but his unfavorables have topped 60% in two of the last three polls (click link below)....

One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama...at least until now.  PPP's newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.This is a new development in the flavor of the month game. Over the previous 6 months when Romney first trailed Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich in our national polling he still did on average 6 points better than them in our general election tests....

The Republican establishment is having a bad week. It’s darling Mitt “Arnold Schwarzenegger/Nelson Rockefeller” Romney, whose main virtue has been said to be his electability, stumbled big time by losing all three contests this week to Rick Santorum, he of no organization and less money. Now comes this quite troubling news out of Ohio, at least if you’re from the Mitt-Arnold-Nelson wing of the party: Head to head against President Barack Obama, Romney comes in second, 45 percent to 41 percent, according to Rasmussen Reports. . .

Mitt Romney is supposed to be the only Republican who can defeat Barack Obama, a boast that is belied by his trailing of Obama in the polls. The assumption is that the muddled middle, those folks with less strident ideology who are more open to compromise, will be the deciding factor in November. As we used to say in the neighborhood, “Oh yeah?” We offer this advice . . .

Instead of appealing to voters to vote for him based upon x,y and z, he panders for votes by trying to increase his opponents negatives (as in FL) above his own by massively outspending them on negative ads. This approach has led to his negatives skyrocketing and his positives declining among independents and moderates. Fivethirtyeight and others have been monitoring this, and it isn't pretty. With each battle won (temporarily in Iowa and now Florida), he is headed to surpassing Obama's negatives or having lower positives (some show he already has) and he will ultimately lose against Obama if he...

So far, Mitt Romney has only won in states where he owns summer houses, like New Hampshire. --snip--So why does nearly every pundit and politician think that is the only “electable” candidate, the only one who can beat Obama? The facts and evidence tell a different story. Romney has never won a majority (50% or better) of Republican primary or caucus voters. And, two-thirds of the time, he has had to spend vast sums just to claim the number two spot.

We all know that the GOP candidates are vying for what could be called the most prestigious "Toilet Bowl" in the world -- the "Toilet Bowl" within the White House! I suppose we could label this "season" as the "POT-US SuperWhiteHouse 'playoffs'" -- POT-US representing the acronym of "President Of The United States." Each year, the NFL plays a 16-game pre-playoff regular season. Well, what if... ...the 2008 primary season -- at least the races Mitt Romney competed for beyond his "home turf" -- constituted Romney's "regular season?" Romney's 2008 'Road' Record: 0-16 (Now 0-17) Sizing up only Romney's races...

Mitt Romney’s greatest asset and his primary pitch to voters, the assumption that he is the most viable candidate to face President Obama in a general election, is taking a bruising after Newt Gingrich trounced him in South Carolina on Saturday. The latest Gallup tracking poll of the electorate shows President Obama at parity with both Romney and Gingrich – both Republicans pull 48 percent of the electorate to Obama’s 50 percent. Among national Republicans, Romney’s 10+ point lead over Gingrich has evaporated nearly overnight. Romney’s 23 point lead over Gingrich on January 15 has turned into a 1 point...

Written By : John Hawkins Mitt Romney was a moderate governor in Massachusetts with an unimpressive record of governance. He left office with an approval rating in the thirties and his signature achievement, Romneycare, was a Hurricane Katrina style disaster for the state. Since that’s the case, it’s fair to ask what a Republican who’s not conservative and can’t even carry his own state brings to the table for GOP primary voters. The answer is always the same: Mitt Romney is supposed to be “the most electable� candidate. This is a baffling argument because many people just seem to...

The best case for Mitt Romney’s nomination relates to the glee Democrats express whenever any other contender surges in the Republican contest. Virtually every Democrat I know salivated at the prospect of facing another Texas politico who tends to get tongue-tied under bright lights, and who once confused Social Security with Bernie Madoff’s nastiest work; or a former Speaker whose career is soaked in scandal and influence peddling, and who gets churlish under fire. Democrats also lit up e-mail chains on Tuesday night with zeal over Rick Santorum’s finish, and with snide observations about how the harder edges of his...

The Washington establishment, ever a font of wisdom, has chosen its candidate. Mitt Romney's victory in the Republican primaries, the insiders say, is a fait accompli. They claim he's the most electable, the safe bet. Fine; let's play along for the moment and consider what the Democrats have in store for him in the general election. Recall that before Barack Obama trounced John McCain in 2008, Mr. McCain trounced Mr. Romney. But that's not the worst of it. Mr. Romney's Massachusetts electoral record hardly inspires confidence. He was elected initially in 2002 but couldn't crack 50 percent of the popular...

Four out of ten Republicans believe Mitt Romney would be the most likely candidate to beat President Obama in the general election, according to a new CBS News poll. Cain trailed in the category with just 20 percent... Electability, however, was not most Republicans' top priority when selecting a candidate: 58 percent said they believe it's more important to have a nominee who agrees with them on the issues than one who can beat Mr. Obama next year. Thirty-nine percent said the opposite. But the race could still change; seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is still too...

Yes, say Republicans, as they assess Carter's weaknesses For several decades, it has been an article of faith among politicians and political analysts that no candidate can win a U.S. presidential election unless he can dominate the broad center of the spectrum, that all candidates on the edges of the left or right are doomed. Barry Goldwater's "extremism . . . is no vice" campaign of 1964 provides the classic evidence, reinforced by George McGovern's 1972 defeat in 49 out of 50 states. And since G.O.P. Front Runner Ronald Reagan relies upon a base of support that is on the...

For several decades, it has been an article of faith among politicians and political analysts that no candidate can win a U.S. presidential election unless he can dominate the broad center of the spectrum, that all candidates on the edges of the left or right are doomed. Barry Goldwater's "extremism . . . is no vice" campaign of 1964 provides the classic evidence, reinforced by George McGovern's 1972 defeat in 49 out of 50 states... Ex-President Gerald Ford left no doubt about his views when he warned last month: "A very conservative Republican cannot win in a national election."

Reagan confronts a Democratic President who, after a temporary surge in the national polls because of the crises in Iran and Afghanistan, is now plagued by declining job ratings. The odds are that by fall, Carter will be trying to defend his management of an economy with double-digit inflation and rising unemployment, gasoline prices of upwards of $2 per gal. and a reduced budget that offends many of the traditional Democratic-constituencies. New York Opinion Researcher Daniel Yankelovich sums it up: "The biggest thing Reagan has going for him is Carter."

Republican voters in early presidential voting states like Iowa are increasingly looking past imperfections in a candidate's conservative record in exchange for someone who appeals to the broader electorate — and might have a better chance of beating President Barack Obama. It's a potentially beneficial development for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who lead in national polls despite records that break with conservative orthodoxy in some areas. At least in Iowa and New Hampshire, some Republicans are shifting toward Romney and Perry — at the others' expense. "If we keep focusing on immigration and gay...

Electability. It's an elusive quality. It's like chemistry, between movie stars. It's like tinnitus, for wine. Or is that tannins? You know what I mean — the quality of wine that keeps wine experts' voices ringing in your ears when you are stuck next to them at dinners. It's like buzz. It's like the It factor. It's what Bertie Wooster would call a certain indefinable Thingness. Somehow, we have this idea that a person can be “electable.” Of course, you can’t be electable in a vacuum. If I am electable in the middle of a forest and no one is...

Why Mitt Romney still poses the greatest challenge to Obama in 2012 One of my regrets in life is losing the chance to debate Mitt Romney and whip his ass. It was the fall of 2002. Mitt Romney had thundered into Massachusetts with enough money to grab the Republican nomination for governor. Meanwhile, I was doing my best to secure the Democratic nomination. One week before the Democratic primary, I was tied in the polls with the state treasurer, well ahead of four other candidates. But my campaign ran out of cash. Despite pleas from my campaign manager, I didn't...

On a weekend trip to the University of Arkansas, Rudy Giuliani talked about the possibility of running for president again. "My concern about 2012 is -- because I'm a Republican -- to make sure that the Republican party fields a candidate that can win. And if I think that I can help by being a candidate, then that would probably persuade me to do it, but if I can help supporting another candidate, then I'd probably do that." And there's time to figure that out. The good thing about this election -- as opposed to four years ago --...

At the end of Part 1 of this series I asked the question: What happens when Americans, perhaps watching a debate, a speech, or a town hall meeting, begin to realize that Palin is the candidate that they agree with? Yet we had been told, countless times, that Palin is controversial and holds extreme positions (though Obama is never described as such), and here we sit, agreeing with these “crazy” ideas. How will this effect her electability? There are 5 major issues that will win or lose the 2012 Election for someone, if they can handle those issues correctly. And...

On most issues, Americans at large and conservatives in particular agree with Governor Palin. However, for two years now, the media has been pushing the narrative that Governor Palin is polarizing, radioactive and unpopular. They’ve been trashing her, attacking her, distorting her record, and making up lies about her on a daily basis. No politician in US history has received the scrutiny that Governor Palin has received. Now as the 2012 campaign gears up, we suddenly have people coming out from the left and the right proclaiming that Governor Palin is unelectable because she is, lets repeat that: Polarizing, radioactive...

It starts in his home state of Illinois, as Alec MacGillis reports for the Washington Post: Obama’s advisers have pointed to his success in winning over “downstate” Illinoisans as a sign of his electability, but political analysts question the claim. Obama lost most of downstate Illinois in his Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate in 2004, and his big win in the general election that year came against Alan Keyes, a black conservative with a Maryland address. In this year’s presidential primary, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) beat Obama in southern Illinois’ struggling coal counties, highlighting the same weakness he...

Here are some interesting quotes from two small Bill Clinton events in South Bend, Ind., this morning. The first is from a Dyngus Day celebration at the West Side Democratic Club: "She can win this race, and we have got to win. And she will win in Florida. And I must say that this new strategy of denying and disempowering and disenfranchising the voters in Florida and Michigan is I believe a terrible mistake. Hillary believes their votes should be counted. And I don't know how we're gonna go to those people in the general election and say you gotta...

When Democrats contemplate the apocalypse these days, they have visions of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton slugging it out à la Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter at the 1980 convention. The campaign's current trajectory is, in fact, alarmingly similar to the one that produced that disastrous affair. Back then, Carter had built up a delegate lead with early wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, and several Southern states. But, as the primary season dragged on, Kennedy began pocketing big states and gaining momentum. Once all the voting ended and Kennedy came up short, he eyed the New York convention as a...

WASHINGTON -It is already easy to imagine the Republican attack ads against Barack Obama. They open with video of his wife, Michelle, saying she was proud of America "for the first time in my adult lifetime" because of her husband's presidential candidacy. Cut to the Illinois Senator explaining that he doesn't wear an American flag lapel pin because it is a "substitute for true patriotism." Then flash a clip of Obama explaining that his Caucasian grandmother was a "typical white person" because she uttered racial epithets and was afraid of black people. Finally, the coup de grace, pictures of Obama's...

No big surprise that Sen. Obama's refusal to explain why he put his family in front of such vile rhetoric and linked himself to such a divisive church has hurt him in the polls. Even Kos is acknowledging that the revelation that Sen. Obama has spent two decades associating himself with a "spiritual mentor" who hates America and white people is not the best way to win friends and influence people. Specifically, the RCP Average now shows Clinton as more competitive against McCain than Obama (although McCain leads both within the MoE). As Kos notes, SurveyUSA has new polls from...

Politicians know a troublesome story has “broken through� the Eastern media echo chamber when Jay Leno is laughing at them. In the case of the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., retiring pastor and outgoing spiritual adviser to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), it took less than 48 hours. The fracas started Thursday morning, when ABC’s “Good Morning America� ran a Brian Ross expose on Wright that included old video of him saying: “The government gives them the drugs, builds bigger prisons, passes a three-strike law and then wants us to sing ‘God bless America’? No, no, no. Not God bless America....

In all the excitement of last night’s primary results an important exit poll item was reported with no follow up comment. While gushing about how 80% of Democrat party primary voters thought “They were ready for a Black man or a woman to be president of the United States.” Hey that sounds great. Eighty percent is a big number. Nevertheless, in the world of politics sometimes less is more. These twenty percent of Democrat primary voters are obviously the most devout liberals in their party. This revelation, whether an admission or projection, indicates the converse is true, twenty percent of...

John McCain is neither the inevitable Republican Nominee nor as electable as current polling data suggests for three reasons 1) the mainstream media will turn their backs on McCain as soon as he is the nominee, 2) so-called independents and moderates will not show up as strongly for McCain in the general election as in the primary, 3) McCain cannot unify the party because many important conservatives will not rally around him, and 4) McCain-Feingold will literally seal his fate because conservatives will not outlay cash in the general election for McCain. The mainstream media will turn against Senator McCain...

The question of viability for Mitt Romney comes on two levels today. First, he appears to have given up on South Carolina just a day after restarting ads in the Palmetto State. Second, a new Rasmussen poll shows Romney coming up considerably short against both of the Democratic front-runners: Just a day after his big win in Michigan, Mitt Romney ceded South Carolina to his rivals. “This is a state I’d expect that Sen. [John] McCain has pretty well wrapped up,” Romney told reporters at the Sun City Hilton Head Retirement Center in Bluffton. “It would be an enormous surprise...

I want Fred Thompson to win the Republican nomination. (Did you hear he's surging in South Carolina?) And it's not just that the other candidates stink for various and sundry reasons--which I'll run through momentarily--or that he's the best of the worst or something. I want Fred for his own reasons. Let's run through the problems with the other guys: John McCain: He marches to his own little drummer who doesn't know the conservative rhythm. Of course there's McCain-Feingold that nifty little piece of legislation who's chief beneficiary was George Soros, but there's this other little thing: his only consistent...

Twenty million, 30 million, 40 million . . . pretty soon, Mitt Romney is going to be talking about real money here. “Washington is broken,” Mitt said last night. Unfortunately, so is his campaign. Ann Romney stood behind him, wearing black, which seemed appropriate for the occasion. According to his staff, Mitt’s in it for the “long haul,” although that all depends on what the definition of the word “long” is. This morning, how’d you like to be a Romney fund raiser? Or a Romney worker in Michigan? Or a Romney anything? On the Internet message boards last night, they...

With five Republican and three Democratic presidential hopefuls in double digits in the national polls of their respective parties and with dozens of issues ranging from gay marriage to the war in Iraq, the decisions that voters will be asked to make in the next several weeks might appear quite complicated. But it shouldn’t be. Voters should take only one consideration into account in deciding who to support in their party’s upcoming caucus or primary. That consideration is which of the party’s set of possible candidates is most electable next November. Electability. Electability is always a consideration in a nomination...

Fred Thompson or Ron Paul? Like Perry and some others, I would rather see a big government Democrat elected than a big government Republican. At least that would bring back some opposition. Republicans in Congress have a much better record of reining in the Democrats' presidents than their own. And as I explain later, I think that one of these two is the only Republican candidate capable of winning the national election. Ron Paul answering the What programs? question by naming three cabinet level departments ... Wow. Good answer. If there was no rest-of-the-world, he would possibly have my vote....

It has unfolded mostly under the radar. But an important development in the 2008 Democratic battle may be the building backlash among African Americans over comments from associates of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton that could be construed as jabs at Sen. Barack Obama's race. These officials, including Clinton aides and prominent surrogates, have raised questions or dropped references about Obama's position on sentencing guidelines for crack vs. powder cocaine offenses; on his handgun control record; and on his admitted use of drugs as a youth. The context was always Obama's "electability." But the Illinois senator's campaign advisers said some African...

Vermont Right to Life is the latest statewide pro-life organization to back Fred Thompson's bid for the Republican nomination for president. Their endorsement follows on the heels of those from state pro-life groups in West Virginia, New York, Wyoming, and Wisconsin. In a statement sent to LifeNews.com, Sharon Toborg, treasurer of the Vermont Right to Life Political Committee, says the endorsement reflects Thompson's consistent pro-life views and his ability to win the nomination and general election. “It is great that so many candidates in the Republican Primary are pro-life and have been strong friends of the pro-life effort," she said....

Right Wing News emailed more than 240 right-of-center bloggers and asked them to answer 8 questions about the 2008 candidates. The following 61 blogs responded: The Absurd Report, David All Group, AtlanticBlog, The American Princess, Betsy's Page, Bit's Blog, BizzyBlog, Blogs of War, Blonde Sagacity, Bluey Blog, Boi From Troy, Bookworm Room, Keith Burgess-Jackson, Cassy Fiano, Dr. Melissa Clouthier, Cold Fury, Conservative Grapevine, Damian Penny, Dispatches from Blogblivion, Argghhhh!, Ed Driscoll, Eckernet, Musings, Fraters Libertas, Ian Schwartz, Jeff Gannon - A Voice of the New Media, Ghost of a Flea, (Michael) GOPUSA Northeast, (Hank) GOPUSA Northeast, GraniteGrok, Gocinatlanta, Guardian Watchblog,...

As Barack Obama gains on Hillary Rodham Clinton from the left in Iowa, the GOP gains on her from the right nationwide. Hillary’s triangulation scheme looks far less dominating than it did two months ago. She may be on the apex of an isosceles triangle, but the base may be too narrow for her perch to offer much comfort. Survey USA recently polled Oregon, and the results are not what “She Who Demands Media Obedience” would have dialed up. To be challenged in the primaries by a candidate appealing feverishly to the hard core base of her party is no...

Fred Thompson is the Republican most likely to beat abortion-rights supporter Rudy Giuliani, the National Right to Life Committee said Tuesday, announcing its endorsement of the former Tennessee senator for president. "While there are various polls, and some are up-and-down, the overwhelming consensus has been that he is best-positioned to top pro-abortion candidate Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination," the group's executive director, David N. O'Steen, said at a news conference. ...By emphasizing Thompson's political potential _ he ranks second behind former New York Mayor Giuliani in national Republican polls _ the anti-abortion group played down its own differences with...

PRINCETON, NJ -- The vast majority of Americans say former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has an excellent or good chance both of being elected president and of defeating Hillary Clinton in the November 2008 general election if Clinton is the Democratic presidential candidate. None of the other leading Republican candidates comes close to Giuliani on either measure. Americans give Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney slightly better chances of “being elected president” than of “defeating Hillary Clinton.” Giuliani also has an advantage in perceived electability over the rest of the Republican field in...

Most Republican presidential candidates can brag about attracting followers with their valiant stances on important issues. Rudy Giuliani's followers support him because they think he can beat Hillary Clinton. In and by itself, the reasoning of Giuliani's supporters is not illogical. Many people do take into account electability when voting for a primary candidate (although most will not sacrifice their basic principles in the name of an election victory). The problem is, this perceived electability is the only thing going for Giuliani. But here is the real kicker: Giuliani is not electable. In fact, he is far less electable than...

Here's my anonymously sourced, second-hand Fred Thompson story that confirms the conventional wisdom. Takes place at a dinner in Washington last winter. Thompson is sitting next to a Hollywood insider who asks him, Why weren't you interested in being president of the MPAA (Motion Picture Association of America)? Look, Thompson says. Dick Wolf (creator of "Law and Order") pays me a lot of money to work two days a week. Why would I work for less money and work six days a week? Okay, says the insider, I get that. Then a few weeks later comes the news that Thompson...

Building on her dual image of leadership and electability, Hillary Clinton has advanced to her most powerful advantage on the Democratic nomination campaign, with resounding leads on key issues and personal attributes, alike. Clinton holds vast margins over her top rivals in trust to handle issues from health care, to the economy, to the war in Iraq. On personal attributes, 50 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say she best represents "the core values of the Democratic Party," again placing her far ahead of her main competitors. These advantages help Clinton overcome her relative vulnerability on two attributes — inspiration...

Conventional wisdom is hardening around the proposition that Fred Dalton Thompson is too lazy, ill-prepared, tired, old, lackluster, inexperienced, inconsistent and bald to make a successful run for President. Of course, conventional wisdom rarely gets anything right. When it does, it's only by accident. In this case conventional wisdom is not just wrong but comically so. Thompson will win the Republican nomination for two reasons. First, he's a very impressive candidate. Second, there's no realistic alternative. He will win the general election for the same two reasons. Let's start by considering the Thompson's Republican competition. John McCain's candidacy may not...

Earlier this week, former Sen. Fred Thompson met privately in Washington, D.C. with senior members of the Arlington Group, a coalition of social and religious conservatives. The meeting, according to Arlington Group members present, included members who had previously met with Thompson at a private meeting in the spring, prior to Thompson's speech before the Council on National Policy. At the meeting this week Thompson answered questions and discussed his views on social issues, as well as his own faith, for more than an hour. "He's impressive, and a number of us want to help him," says a member of...

Like the Olympics, it's a game that's played every four years. The media march out on the field in their ideologically matching blazers and try to convince the GOP to ditch social issues. Their pitch goes something like this: Republican voters are far more moderate than their party's platform. The day of the religious right has come and gone. With pro-life, pro-marriage stands, the party alienates legions of voters who agree with it on taxes, spending and defense. An article in the July 5 Wall Street Journal ("Giuliani Support Hints at Shift") argues, "Mr. Giuliani's lead in the polls -...

Recently, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani officially threw his hat into the ring as a candidate seeking the Presidency of the United States. The night before his official announcement, Giuliani appeared on the FOX Network's "Hannity and Colmes" where the Republican told the program's hosts about his political intentions. A number of recent polls indicate the former federal prosecutor currently leads an ever-growing field of Republicans seeking their Party's nomination. During Sean Hannity's exclusive interview, Giuliani was asked about his liberal social leanings, including his position on abortion, homosexual "marriage," and gun control. Hannity, the popular conservative co-host of...

Not since Teddy Roosevelt took on Tammany Hall a century ago has a New York politician closely linked to urban reform looked like presidential timber. But today ex–New York mayor Rudy Giuliani sits at or near the top of virtually every poll of potential 2008 presidential candidates. Already, Giuliani’s popularity has set off a “stop Rudy” movement among cultural conservatives, who object to his three marriages and his support for abortion rights, gay unions, and curbs on gun ownership. Some social conservatives even dismiss his achievement in reviving New York before 9/11. An August story on the website Right Wing...