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Myles Udland January 15, 2015 Here's a word no one wants to hear: "recession." Headline payroll gains were strong in 2014 and GDP growth has been above 3% in four of the last five quarters. So everything is good, right? Well, one indicator that has a perfect record of predicting recessions is creeping towards some uncomfortable levels: the yield curve. The yield curve, or the interest rate paid on the range of US Treasury bonds, typically ranges from low to high: the shortest duration bills are paid the least interest, with investors earning additional yield for lending the government for...

Linette Lopez January 15, 2015The story on Wall Street this earnings season is a classic case of, "be careful what you wish for; you just might get it." Since Wednesday, when Wall Street started reporting its earnings for the last quarter of 2014, we have seen an across-the-board beatdown on trading revenues. •A 23% drop in bond trading (from the same time last year) contributed to JP Morgan's earnings miss. •Citigroup's trading revenue fell by 14% overall, and bond trading fell 16% from this time last year. •And sales and trading revenue at Bank of America fell 20% from the...

As President John F Kennedy once quipped, the rising tide lifts all boats; but one only needs to compare San Francisco and Stockton - cities just 80 miles apart - to question whether the rising tide lifts all boats equally. California has recovered all of the jobs the state lost during the recent recession. But that doesn't necessarily mean the state's job market is uniformly doing well. California's tale of two states isn't new or surprising, but it is one that has been conspicuously absent from the Sacramento agenda. Yet, in the event there wasn't enough evidence already, the January...

Elena Holodny January 15, 2015Societe Generale is out with its latest quarterly chart of "swan" risks — and it's looking pretty ominous. Technically speaking, "black swan" risks are by definition nearly impossible to predict — and when they come, it's bad. But the point that SocGen's swan chart is trying to show is there are economic and geopolitical risks stewing that could seriously rock the economy and the markets if they occur. Once again, further deterioration in the eurozone area is the most significant downside risk. The risk of a hard economic landing in China "somewhat eased," according to SocGen....

Global markets were thrown into turmoil on Thursday as a shock move by Switzerland to abandon its more than three-year-old cap on the franc sent the currency soaring and Europe's shares and bond yields tumbling. The franc jumped by almost 30 percent in a chaotic few minutes after the 1.20 per euro cap in place since late 2011 was lifted, surging past parity to trade as high as 0.8052 francs per euro. It was trading at 1.02600 at just after 1200 GMT. The move reversed an earlier rebound in risk appetite following an overnight recovery in commodity prices. Over 100...

Women's fashion discount retailer Deb Shops is closing all of its stores in Michigan and nationwide. After more than 80 years in business, the Philadelphia-based retailer, which specializes in junior- and plus-size apparel, filed for Chapter 11 protection on Dec. 4, according to a news release. On Jan. 7, the bankruptcy court awarded Gordon Brothers Group and Hilco Merchant Resources the store closing process for all locations. Officials with Gordon Brothers Group and Hilco Merchant Resources began going-out-of-business sales at approximately 287 Deb Shops retail locations Friday, Jan. 9, the release states. The company's website gob.debshops.com now is simply an...

Just two days after it warned that it might file Chapter 11 bankruptcy, Body Central is shutting all of its stores and headquarters completely. The chain’s 265 stores are running “aggressive promotional sales through Sunday,” Gardner Davis, an attorney representing the Jacksonville-based chain of clothing stores geared to young women and teens, said on Friday afternoon. It has stores in the The Avenues and Orange Park malls and River City Marketplace. The company’s headquarters and warehouse closed Friday, he said. “It’s tragic that the company’s 2,500 loyal employees are losing their jobs,” he said. About 185 of those employees worked...

The preppy lifestyle brand started by Tory Burch’s ex-husband, Chris Burch, is shutting down its remaining locations ‘due to the highly competitive nature of the current retail environment,’ a spokesman said. It’s curtains for C. Wonder. The retailer confirmed that it will shutter its remaining locations. C. Wonder is closing up shop. The retailer, which was launched by designer Tory Burch’s ex-husband, Chris Burch, will be shutting down its remaining stores, a spokesman confirmed. “Due to the highly competitive nature of the current retail environment, C. Wonder will be closing its remaining stores," a spokesman said in a statement to...

If you were waiting for a “black swan event” to come along and devastate the global economy, you don’t have to wait any longer. As I write this, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $45.76 a barrel. It has fallen by more than 60 dollars a barrel since June. There is only one other time in history when we have seen anything like this happen before. That was in 2008, just prior to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But following the financial crisis of 2008, the price of oil rebounded fairly rapidly. As you...

Oil and natural gas are sliding again to multi-year lows, and once again it is having an influence on stocks. What's important is to understand the outsized influence this near-daily drop in oil (six months and running!) is having on corporate earnings. Even though the energy sector is only roughly 8 percent of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, the decline in earnings in that sector has been so dramatic that it is affecting earnings estimate for the entire S&P 500. On December 1st, analyst anticipated that Energy earnings for Q1 2015 would decline 13.8 percent compared to Q1...

We have witnessed the price implosion of oil, and the subsequent decline in gasoline prices. Is this the beginning of a trend, and what industry will admit and be subject to an inability to control its pricing structure? Cable television? The cost of cable television is a broken promise. Originally, for those old enough to remember, the promise of cable television was that though it may involve a charge, something new for television, there would be no commercials. Anyone remember? Now, the cable providers have it both ways. There are commercials, and infomercials, on which they receive money from not...

Fed related publication warns of: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/december/baby-boomers-retirement-stocks-aging/

Myles Udland January 14, 2015Copper took turn for the worst on Tuesday night, falling more than 6% to below $2.50 per pound in New York, a fresh four-year low. In a note to clients on Wednesday, David Cui at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said this not sending a good signal to the white hot Shanghai stock market, which was the world's best performing stock market in 2014. Cui wrote that given the widespread use of copper in the Chinese economy, a drop demand — and a resulting drop in price — is often a good indicator of economic health...

“for the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births.” Clifton says for the past six years since 2008, employer business startups have fallen below the business failure rate, spurring what he calls “an underground earthquake” that only stands to worsen as lagging U.S. Census data becomes available. “Let’s get one thing clear: This economy is never truly coming back unless we reverse the birth and death trends of American businesses. ... the numbers paint an ominous portrait of America in a dire state of decline. “I don’t want to sound like a doomsayer, but when...

Authored by Jim Clifton, Gallup CEO & Chairman,The U.S. now ranks not first, not second, not third, but 12th among developed nations in terms of business startup activity. Countries such as Hungary, Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, Sweden, Israel and Italy all have higher startup rates than America does.We are behind in starting new firms per capita, and this is our single most serious economic problem. Yet it seems like a secret. You never see it mentioned in the media, nor hear from a politician that, for the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births.The...

The rapid decline in oil prices could have a significant negative impact on the Oklahoma economy. Taxes associated with production, sales taxes, corporate taxes, income taxes, employment, and housing markets can all be expected to suffer without a rebound in oil prices, which seems unlikely in the near future. Oil continued to fall on Tuesday as prices neared 6 year lows before regaining some ground... Brent crude has fallen roughly 70% since June while West Texas Intermediate (U.S. crude) has fallen approximately 55% in the same time period. To date the largest oil and natural gas companies in the state...

The Merriam-Webster dictionary offers this definition for the word capitulate: "to stop fighting an enemy or opponent; to admit that an enemy or opponent has won." I'm not sure who oil companies are fighting, whether it's oil traders, OPEC, Russia, or some invisible market force, but they're losing. The domestic standard, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, fell below $45 per barrel on Tuesday, while the global standard, Brent crude oil, is now well under $50. Who is going to stop the bleeding? OPEC is not cutting production, the U.S. is expected to increase output in 2015, and Russia has little...

Another day, another selloff for oil. The catalyst Tuesday was talk from the United Arab Emirates’ oil minister, who said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would stand firm on its November decision to keep output steady. The comments dashed investor hopes that OPEC would relent and cut production in the face of a rout that has slashed U.S. oil prices 14% in the first eight trading days of the year and 57% since June. The selling spilled into other commodities and the currency market. The price of copper, a commodity about which investors hold many of the same...

MLive columnist Rick Haglund is skeptical about the state’s choices of favored industries, noting that much of the Michigan Business Development Program subsidies go to manufacturers. “[D]eluded by the recent resurgence of manufacturing jobs, state policymakers are doubling down on promoting Michigan as a state that makes things,” he writes. However, everyone should be skeptical of the idea that the state can lead economic growth at all. Michigan’s industrial mix is not the result of decisions made in Lansing. It is the result of millions of people using their skills and knowledge in the most effective way they know how...

Democrats are seizing on the fight for mandatory paid leave in the United States as their next big pocketbook issue. The Obama administration has for months called upon Congress to require employers to offer paid leave, with Labor Secretary Tom Perez relentlessly pressing the case to anyone who will listen. And while potential Democratic presidential candidates, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), have voiced support for the proposal, the party has yet to elevate paid leave to the top tier of its policy agenda. That will soon change, according to Democratic operatives, administration officials...