Free Republic

Newt Gingrich seems to be making decent sense, in terms of apparent logic, in saying that by staying in the race he can help rack up enough delegates to keep Mitt Romney from winning on the first ballot at the GOP national convention. Sometimes, though, that which seems to make sense does not actually work in practice. Nomination arithmetic is different from normal arithmetic. And no, I am not talking about how he alters the "impressions game" by splitting the conservative vote and thus either handing pluralities to Romney or narrowing the margins of victory for Santorum. That is a...

SAN JUAN, P.R. — The pickup truck that carried him through Iowa is long gone, replaced by a small motorcade of S.U.V.’s. There was a police escort, and a phalanx of Secret Service agents. The sweater vest was gone, at least for the day, and Rick Santorum, the winner of the last two presidential primaries, was smartly turned out, in a dark suit and power tie, when he held a half-hour private meeting with Gov. Luis G. Fortuño of Puerto Rico.The two men did not take questions from reporters, but allowed photographers to capture the moment. With the cameras whirring,...

It’s true that in reality, the “win” didn’t change the delegate count all that much. Give or take, all candidates still split the delegates about 2:1 for Santorum. And it’s true that there are clearly enough “winner take all states” that play to the Gingrich game plan that he could still get to the convention with the most candidates, none having 1,144. But it is also clear to me after analyzing the data, I must intelligently weigh the situation for what is the best prospect to beat Obama and sell conservative policies to the American people to save this Republic....

The first hint that the night might not go Mitt Romney's way was his decision not to have a victory party at all, which I first heard on the Hugh Hewitt show. As I said at the time, that's an odd decision, considering the free media coverage one gets from the inevitable candidate speech. Perhaps that should have tipped us off that the early exit polls had missed the mark, and that the Romney campaign knew full well they would come in third in both Mississippi and Alabama.However, despite the disappointing results in the two southern states, Romney ended up...

Despite his losses in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Mitt Romney appears to have expanded his delegate lead on Tuesday. The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23 But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin. AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions. So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to...

There is an interesting analysis article over at Real Clear Politics that lays out a scenario whereby the August Republican National Convention evolves into the worst nightmare imaginable for party officials – a brokered convention. Based on how Republican candidates for president have done so far with different demographics and regions of the country, Sean Trende predicts how the race for the Republican nomination may play out and lays out a scenario where a brokered Republican convention could take place. Now, it’s no secret that a brokered convention would be a catastrophe for Republican Party leaders use to grand coronations...

If you have crunched the numbers like I have, it’s very hard to see how Romney is denied the 1,144 delegates in a 3 man race. This is because in a 2-man race in the Southern states, Romney would be shut out of most delegates, whereas now with the Anti-Romney vote split, he is taking 1/3 or better of the delegates. This will in fact get him to 1,144 based on even the most pessimistic scenarios. Consider the following: Romney has acquired about 407 delegates in the following states (Endorsed Superdelegates are included in the totals) IA (7), NH(7), SC(2),...

California Could End Up Deciding Republican Presidential Nomination Megan Goldsby, CBS Local - San Francisco SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS) – The Republican presidential contest remains unsettled, and California could be the state that finally decides it. Super Tuesday turned out much like a children’s birthday party – everybody left with a prize, according to former California Republican Party chair Ron Nehring. “Everyone is going to stay in this contest throughout the month of March,” said Nehring. “I’d be very surprised if anyone dropped out.” KCBS’ Doug Sovern Reports: Republican Presidential Nomination Could Be In California's Hands Even though he didn’t land...

(CBS News) BILOXI, Miss. - The four main candidates for the Republican nomination for president say they're committed to staying in the race right up to the convention this August in Tampa, Fla. There's just one problem: If they do, it might turn out that no one gets the number of delegates needed to win the nomination outright. Stumping in Birmingham, Alabama, Mitt Romney continued his Southern charm offensive, celebrating an endorsement from the country band Alabama. "Wouldn't you love to hear them sing 'Sweet Home Alabama'? Wouldn't that be wonderful?" he asked a crowd at one campaign stop. In...

The organizers also state their desire to take control of the local Republican organization and the Republican State Central Committee (RSCC). When speaking about the RSCC, the organizer stated that they wanted a majority on the committee so that they could dictate how the party spends its money, emphasizing that money should only go to candidates that adhere to the platform.

Rick Santorum won’t be winning any delegates in four of Illinois’ 18 congressional districts next month. But, at least in the 13th District, it won’t be because he didn’t try. Former senator Rick Santorum (R-Pa.). (Julie Denesha/Getty Images)On Jan. 6, the state filing deadline, a Santorum volunteer had brought to the board of elections an envelope containing nominating petitions for a slate of three Santorum delegates in the 13th, the State Journal-Register reports. But the petitions were never submitted. A volunteer inadvertently failed to take them out of the envelope, the Journal Register reports, and the envelope wound up in...

A new official delegate count being kept by the Republican National Committee reveals that Newt Gingrich has won more "bound" delegates in the presidential primary than Rick Santorum. Gingrich has won 107 delegates compared to Santorum's 95, according to the RNC's count, which was made after Super Tuesday. That effectively puts him in second place behind front-runner Mitt Romney. But the RNC does not count delegates from states like Iowa in its total, according to the Huffington Post, which first reported the story. The Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses did not officially allocate any of the state's 28 delegates to the...

One of the reasons to be skeptical that Rick Santorum could win the Republican nomination is that we now have a pretty good idea of how the vote will play out from state to state — and the coalition that he is building seems short of a majority. It is not that Mr. Santorum’s delegate deficit is mathematically insurmountable. But he’s behind, and he is very unlikely to win states like New Jersey and California that either have a lot of delegates or use winner-take-all rules to award them. That might not leave enough fertile opportunities for him to gain...

Newt Gingrich stands to gain more than 50 delegates in the Republican presidential race, thanks to his overwhelming victory in Tuesday’s Georgia primary. .....If the totals hold, Rick Santorum would fall about 3,500 ballots shy of reaching 20 percent of the statewide vote. Failing to meet that threshold means Santorum was shut out of a share of 34 delegates awarded based on the statewide vote. Only Gingrich and Romney met that minimum percentage. Based on his vote total alone, Gingrich stands to win 16 statewide delegates; Romney 8. Under the state GOP rules, the remaining 10 statewide delegates are awarded...

In a memo to reporters, Romney Political Director Rich Beeson laid out his camp's view that neither Santorum nor any of the other candidates in the race has any chance of securing enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination...... "Super Tuesday dramatically reduced the likelihood that any of Governor Romney's opponents can obtain the Republican nomination," Beeson wrote. "As Governor Romney's opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person's odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama's." Beeson cited Romney's current lead in delegates and a tough upcoming primary and caucus calendar as examples of...

Republican Hard and Soft Count Delegate Summary Total Delegates: 2,286 (1144 needed to win) 2012 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Chronologically This is a good chart to study to get a feel for the delegate "count" jungle. And think about this when you hear a candidate or their PAC "demand" another candidate withdraw. (Newt and Rick are very close in the count -- actually Newt looks potentially stronger). The candidates know these numbers and they play the MSM and the MSM plays us. Stay informed.

What this tells us is that the only way for Mitt Romney to be stopped is for the three remaining candidates all to join together. Voters for Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul must all come together behind one candidate, or else Mitt Romney will win this by attrition.

....................................I think that the choice, ultimately, rests with both Senator Santorum and Governor Romney. At this point, Santorum has the staying power to drag this thing out. Perhaps, even, he feels justified in doing so. Giving up a hope, even a faint one, of securing the nomination of a major party for the presidency is no small thing to ask of a man. However, doing so in the service of ensuring that Barack Obama becomes a one-term president would be a supreme act of patriotism. Likewise, surrendering the freedom to choose whomever one wishes as a running mate in exchange...

Only twelve states have held primaries or caucuses, and shockingly, many of them have either been scandal ridden, had their dates manipulated in violation of proposed nomination calendar, or broke the delegate distribution rules set by the Republican National Committee. State GOP chairs in Iowa and Nevada have resigned in disgrace, and others have come under heavy scrutiny following the completion of their caucus or primary. The Iowa Caucuses became the butt of too many jokes when Iowa GOP Chairman refused to declare Rick Santorum the winner of the caucuses following the state GOP’s certification process, which clearly showed Santorum...

According to the MSM, and most people who blindly follow their reports, Mitt Romney won the Michigan primary last night by about 3 points, 41 to 38. However, like the Electoral College, the point of the contest is not to win the popular vote (Gore – 2000) but to win more delegates per state based on the apportionment of those delegates. Michigan’s primary delegate system allows for a set number of delegates to be won by state wide popular vote and the rest to be evenly distributed by Congressional districts. When you consider the facts of the contest, and the...