Free Republic

Israel counter strike 6

Activity has apparently dropped off, indicating that the attack is finished for now. Second wave? Uncertain at this time

Watch switches to see if Iran will “immediately “ respond.

Initial impressions indicate no Israeli losses
All aircraft delivered munitions, ballistic missiles do not seem to have been used.
Complete surprise was obtained
Possibly two key nuclear facilities hit, along with other military facilities

Daylight will bring battle damage assessment.

Calling it a nite.

Israel counter strike 5

Observers noting multiple aircraft are diverting over Iran. Civilian air traffic is being rerouted around Isfahan. Multiple airports in Iran have closed per recent NOTAM postings.

Iranian media reporting 3 huge explosions were heard in Isfahan, south of Tehran.

Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, a senior US official tells ABC News

explosions also heard in Tabriz.
This is a city which has a significant missile facility.

Reports of at least one explosion in Natanz. Possible Israel has targeted the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

See above ping

Israel counter strike 4

An air strike hit Baghdad, reportedly targeting a building hosting a meeting between senior IRGC leaders an leaders of Iranian supported proxy militias

Heavy jet activity being reported Northern Iraqi Cities of Erbil and Mosul.

Israeli airstrikes on military sites in Sweida Governorate, southern Syria.
The target was the destruction of an early warning radar battalion.
Other raids targeted Al-Tha’lah Airport in Sweida and Azraa in Daraa Governorate.

Developing

Israel counter strike 3

Something has triggered markets

Reports of a massive move out of risk assets and into havens right now.

Gold, Yen up. Oil up. US futures drop

Developing

Israel counter strike update 2

Reports coming out of unknown aircraft and explosions in Iran, Iraq and Syria. The reports of explosions in Isfahan in central Iran are of great interest due to the area hosting critical infrastructure for irans nuclear program

Could be prep for follow on operations. But news is still developing.

No post for tomorrow (Friday ) or Sunday. I have family commitments that will prevent me from spending the hours researching and producing this report.

---

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Some outlets out there are trying to link ISIS to the April 15 protests. I’m dubious about such a linkage but cannot fully rule it out. Radical islam will affiliate with other elements against a common enemy when it suits their purposes. ISIS has been on the ascendancy over the past year or so, and seeing the political chaos growing in the US as an opportunity to keep us occupied here under pro-hamas protesting could be a win for them.

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Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024

U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) has reportedly raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) for military bases across the country to FPCON CHARLIE following Saturday night’s large-scale attack by Iran against Israel within the Central Command Area-of Responsibility, with an increase in security as well as armed patrols and 100% ID checks now required at all bases around the United States.

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Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US Navy ship, the USNS 2nd LT John P. Bobo, en route to the eastern Mediterranean to help the US military set up a pier for aid to Gaza had to turn back last week after experiencing a fire, a Navy spokesperson told CNN.It is not clear how the delay will affect the construction of the floating pier and causeway, which the Pentagon has said is expected to be operational by late April or early May

***
Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro today told lawmakers his service is out at least $1 billion in critical munitions because of recent operations in the Middle East, a shortfall the Pentagon is banking on a congressional supplemental to help replenish.

“We currently have approaching $1 billion in munitions that we need to replenish at some point in time,” Del Toro told the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on defense. “So, therefore the over $2 billion that’s provided for in the supplemental is direly critical to our Navy and Marine Corps to be able to replenish those munitions and continue to provide the types of defensive measures that we have this past six months now.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/navy-is-down-1b-in-munitions-from-ops-in-red-sea-says-secnav/

---

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

A comprehensive review by an international consortium of scientists has raised serious concerns about the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines’ safety profile.
Review articles are summaries of current research on a particular topic. They are also sometimes called literature reviews or secondary sources.

The review, “N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ): Friend or foe of cancer?” published on Science Direct, delves into the potential implications of a vaccine ingredient—N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ)—that may play a role in immune suppression and cancer proliferation.

m1Ψ was incorporated into Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine to enhance its efficacy.

This component was introduced in the mRNA vaccine as a means to produce a significant amount of modified SARS-CoV-2 spike mRNA through in vitro transcription (IVT). This modification was crucial in the rapid development and deployment of the vaccine during the height of the pandemic.

However, the review article calls into question the long-term impacts of this modification, especially concerning the vaccine’s interaction with the body’s immune response and potential carcinogenic effects.

According to the review’s abstract, evidence suggests that while mRNA vaccines may have been “effective” in reducing severe disease outcomes, they might not provide sterilizing immunity, leaving individuals susceptible to recurring infections.

More critically, the review highlights that the inclusion of m1Ψ in mRNA vaccines appears to inhibit key immunological pathways, impairing the body’s early interferon signaling.

“Based on this compelling evidence, we suggest that future clinical trials for cancers or infectious diseases should not use mRNA vaccines with a 100 % m1Ψ modification, but rather ones with the lower percentage of m1Ψ modification to avoid immune suppression,” the researchers said.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/researchers-reveal-covid-mrna-vaccines-contain-component-that/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0141813024022323?via=ihub

OBSERVATION - Article and links indicate the jab accelerates the development of cancers - an ongoing medical worry of the past couple years. This concoction was designed to kill people in a dozen different ways.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Chaos and turmoil among house republicans over pending spending bills while nothing for border security.

As screwed up as that is, IMHO it would be even worse if the republicans try to vacate the speakership. Very strong possibility of republican defections to the democrat side and we’d have a democrat controlled congress pushing massive anti american legislation thru before the elections.

Johnson is going to have to face the piper after the election.

***
News reports beginning to question Chicago’s ability to protect the Democrat convention this summer.

---

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

The 911 system was down in nearly a dozen states yesterday. There has been no reason given for the widespread outage but a lot of rumors that it may have been due to a some kind of cyber attack - unconfirmed.

---

Illegal Immigration –

The Senate quickly dispensed with the two impeachment charges against Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, ending a months-long effort to punish him for his handling of the southern border.

OBSERVATION - Vote was by straight party lines. We’ve known all along the border ‘crisis’ has been deliberately managed to get as many illegals into the country and overload the law enforcement and social welfare support systems as possible while overwhelming local voter registration screening efforts.

---

China –

Major Chinese banks are refusing transfers from Russia in yuan in reportedly an effort to avoid western sanctions for supporting Russia

---

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****
*NOTE* - I’m working on a reassessment of the above, but events in Israel keep diverting my time.

---

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 13 Shahed drones overnight.

A Ukrainian long range strike drone targeted the Gorbunov Aviation Plant in Kazan, Tatarstan. The plant manufactures and repairs Tu-22M and Tu-160M bombers. The drone traveled about 1,000 Km to conduct the strike.

Primary fighting focused on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors. Minor fighting at the Ukraine bridgehead near Kherson.

Ukraine’s ATACMS strike on Dzhankoi Air Base yesterday was likely one of the most successful strikes, if not the most successful strike of the entire war
~12 Mi-28, Ka-52 Helicopters were stationed there, in total costing $210 million, and an S-400 was hit too, worth $500 million

These numbers don’t include other munition losses.

Outlook —

The Russia march continues, forcing Ukraine to give up terrain it had long successfully defended. Weather conditions support the off road operations as well.

---

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IAF hit dozens of targets throughout Gaza.

Israeli Broadcasting Corporation: The army is waiting for the green light to begin operations in Rafah, southern Gaza. The army’s invasion of Rafah will take place in two stages
The second stage of the Rafah invasion will be the establishment of displacement sites before the ground operation

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.

The IAF targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel will probably hold off on retaliating against Iran until the Jewish holiday of Passover has passed, ABC News reported on Wednesday.

A senior U.S. official said that Israel’s decision “could always change,” adding that Iran’s senior officials and Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continue to be on high alert, with some staying in safe houses and underground facilities.

Axios reported that one of the strikes was supposed to happen Monday night before it was postponed.

“We are not sure why and how close it was to an actual attack,” a U.S. official told Axios. The strike was canceled for “operational reasons,” two Israeli sources said.

https://allisrael.com/israel-won-t-attack-iran-until-after-passover-after-canceling-two-strikes-last-week

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.

Israeli forces arrested 40 Palestinians in the West Bank since yesterday. Israel security services say they arrested an ISIS operative in Ramallah area tonight who was planning to carry out an immediate terror attack

——— FORECAST ————————-

Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues.

There is no doubt that Israel is facing gigantic pressure not to strike Iran, or at least minimize any counter strike. This could even go as far as the US saying behind closed doors (my speculation ) not to expect similar defense of Israel when Iran hits back from the Israeli strike. There are very strong voices within the Israeli govt to go big on the counter strike and Netanyahu is stuck between them and trying to maintain the international support expressed in the defense of Israel.

With the time delay, a post Passover scenario is most likely, that way any Iranian attack will not interfere with the holy day.

Also on the near term is the entrance into Rafah. The clock is ticking and preparations are well underway. Revelations that hamas has likely killed most of the hostages will remove a lot of the restraint once the operation begins.

The silence out of the “islamic resistance”, with the exception of the few missiles the Houthi fired during Irans missile strike continues. As noted before, the Iranian backed militias may have their hands full with ISIS. Airstrikes against the Houthi may have managed to hit them where it hurts and dissuaded them from further attacks. Hard to say at this juncture.

---

Armenia/Azerbaijan –

Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces pulling out of the region.

---

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.

Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”

The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.

https://notthebee.com/article/german-minister-threatens-indefinite-driving-bans-weekends-climate-goals

OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.

***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.

As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.

That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan

You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.

https://notthebee.com/article/alberta-canada-updates-mrna-vaccine-guidance-to-recommend-a-new-covid-booster-once-every-three-months-starting-at-6-months-old/

Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.

OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.

I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.

---

Economy-

Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.

“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.

***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.

Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.

The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.

According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.

OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php

***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.

---

Biden / Harris Watch –

(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”

Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.

OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.

---

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.

---

Illegal Immigration –

Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.

***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.

In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.

During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/04/16/nearly-25k-chinese-nationals-at-us-borders-in-six-months/

OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.

---

China –

Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.

With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.

Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.

---

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.

In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.

More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.

The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853

OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.

---

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.

Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.

However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .

Outlook —

Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.

---

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.

***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.

“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.

“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.

“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/

***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.

Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.

OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.

7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.

The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.

In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.

The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others

——— FORECAST ————————-

Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.

One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.

Purim this year is April 22-30

Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.

Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.

Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.

As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.

Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.

Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.

Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.

The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.

---

Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024

CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.

***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:

“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/04/16/are-the-mullahs-worried-about-a-revolt-after-attack-on-israel-n3786652#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.

---

Syria -

ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.

OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.

---

---

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.

Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”

The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.

https://notthebee.com/article/german-minister-threatens-indefinite-driving-bans-weekends-climate-goals

OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.

***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.

As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.

That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan

You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.

https://notthebee.com/article/alberta-canada-updates-mrna-vaccine-guidance-to-recommend-a-new-covid-booster-once-every-three-months-starting-at-6-months-old/

Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.

OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.

I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.

---

Economy-

Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.

“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.

***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.

Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.

The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.

According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.

OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php

***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.

---

Biden / Harris Watch –

(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”

Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.

OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.

---

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT

Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.

---

Illegal Immigration –

Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.

***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.

In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.

During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/04/16/nearly-25k-chinese-nationals-at-us-borders-in-six-months/

OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.

---

China –

Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.

With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.

Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.

---

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.

In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.

More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.

The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853

OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.

---

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.

Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.

However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .

Outlook —

Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.

---

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.

***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.

“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.

“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.

“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/

***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.

Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.

OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.

7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.

The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.

In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.

The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others

——— FORECAST ————————-

Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.

One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.

Purim this year is April 22-30

Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.

Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.

Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.

As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.

Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.

Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.

Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.

The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.

---

Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024

CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.

***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:

“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2024/04/16/are-the-mullahs-worried-about-a-revolt-after-attack-on-israel-n3786652#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.

---

Syria -

ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.

OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.

---

---

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

April 13, 2024, will be etched in the annals of modern Japanese history as tens of thousands of citizens across the nation came together in a series of pandemic rallies. The protests centered on the widespread opposition to the Pandemic Treaty, with escalating concerns over “infectious disease” and “public health” becoming potent tools for an unprecedented push towards what is perceived by many as a totalitarian surveillance society.

The protest not just opposed potential mandatory vaccinations but also the perceived overreach of health authorities and their ties with global pharma, echoing a distressing sentiment of disenfranchisement among the populace. Demonstrators criticized the lack of explanations for a sharp increase in excess deaths and demanded accountability and clarity on vaccine-related casualties.

https://www.aussie17.com/p/developing-massive-rallies-break

OBSERVATION - I don’t think the WHO will have an easy sell on their pandemic “treaty”. Remember, next month is “d day” for the WHO globalist attack on our freedoms.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Well, the A 15 protests kicked off as announced, blocking roadways and airport access at many large cities across the nation. I noted the April 15 protests in the Apr 12th FR post. In many cases, police just sat around and watched the protestors do their thing. Only in a few instances did police quickly and aggressively remove protestors - most notably in Florida. The binding theme of the protests was stopping the Gaza war.

Besides blocking freeways, Police shot pepper balls to repel pro-Palestine extremists trying to rush and attack the Tesla production facility in Fremont, Calif. The plant was closed in an emergency to protect people working there.

In many instances, the number of protestors were relatively few - but those numbers were more than adequate to tie up traffic with police inaction.

The group that ‘organized’ these protests is essentially brand new and little know about them. I suspect that some serious dark money source(s) is at play here given the logistics and planning necessary to get these nonproductive people to sit in a road.

Other analysts are noting that the protest locations seem to have hit interstate ‘nodes’ not only blocking local traffic, but impeding interstate traffic as well.

The success of yesterday’s protests may well be a harbinger for more of the same for the elections in Nov and a potential Trump presidency.

---

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024

An example of a lone wolf attack hits Australia -

A 15-year-old boy has been arrested after at least four people, including a prominent and controversial bishop, were injured in a stabbing at a church in Sydney on Monday.

Police said they were treating the attack as a terror incident.
“We believe there are elements that are satisfied in terms of religious motivated extremism,” New South Wales state Police Commissioner Karen Webb said at a press conference on Tuesday.

He has now been taken to an undisclosed location due to fears for his safety.

OBSERVATION - More info, the attacker is a moslem and cried Allah Ackbar during the attack. Police arrested and then protected him from a crowd estimated to be in the range of 5000 who were ready to deal judgement on the spot. The attacker used a relatively short bladed knife (about 3 inches). Globally, there has been an apparent increase in mass attacks using knives.
These kinds of lone wolf attacks can easily happen here in the US.

---

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Army deploys Typhon missile system to the Philippines for its inaugural Indo-Pacific deployment The Typhon system, can fire Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles, and can range the Taiwan region.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Former President Donald Trump’s trial for alleged hush money payments to Stormy Daniels officially got underway on Monday as jury selection began. Judge Juan Merchan is overseeing the case, which has Trump accused of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.

No jurors were selected yesterday

OBSERVATION - I’ll leave the other FR threads to cover this discussion. Bottom line is that this is another kangaroo court that is forcing Trump to divert time and resources away from his campaign to deal with. Liberal lawyers like Dershiwitz and Turley are banging their heads against the wall over the ridiculous and essentially illegal prosecution moves.

***
House voted 259-128 to prevent reconsideration of last week’s FISA 702 bill.
H.R. 7888 is being sent to the Senate without the amendment to end warrantless spying on Americans.

Our constitution is dying a death of a thousand cuts.

***
A dozen Republican-led states plan to send a letter to Bank of America demanding an explanation for why it allegedly de-banked Christian and other conservative groups.

The letter obtained first by DailyMail.com, led by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach, demands that the financial institution turn over documents related to its account cancellation policies and requested that the bank update its terms of services to not discriminate against clients with certain political or religious beliefs.

The notice comes after it was revealed that Bank of America sent the FBI and U.S. Treasury private consumer financial data to help the agencies investigate crimes related to the January 6 Capitol protest.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13310697/republican-states-bank-america-trump-christian-loan-blocking-discrimination.html

OBSERVATION - I vowed never to deal with BoA decades ago due to their rotten customer service. History shows they are in the pockets of the deep state. Don’t hold your breath that they will respond in a timely and accurate manner to these AGs.
Additional note - this action plays into the developing CW2 scenarios.

---

Illegal Immigration –

March CBP data indicate that more than 137,000 encounters of migrants crossing illegally. This puts the first half of FY 24 past 1,000,000 total encounters. This doesn’t include ‘got aways’.

***
Texas law enforcement has been using pepper balls along the El Paso border region to disperse crowds of illegals pressing recently installed fencing as well as testing other areas.. Arrests are also indicating that the illegals are increasingly armed, primarily with knives and clubs during these aggressive episodes.

***
Nearly 1.2 million foreign nationals are safe from deportation thanks to President Biden’s expansion of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) eligibility.

This is a move Biden has taken since he came into office. He has added several countries to the TPS list. For example, almost half a million Venezuelans received expanded amnesty protection in 2021. Biden’s record has surpassed previous levels of expanding amnesty for foreign nationals, increasing the foreign-born population in the United States to a record high of an estimate of over 51 million. That surpasses previous levels that go back to 1970.
https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/04/15/biden-expands-temporary-amnesty-to-12-million-illegal-aliens-n3786521#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Moves to ‘anchor’ and make deportation even more difficult should Trump take over the WH this fall.

---

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****
Logistics –

Russia may lose its ability to carry out offensive operations in Ukraine by 2025 because of a shortage of armored vehicles. Russia lost thousands of its most modern tanks during the first few months of fighting in Ukraine. Since then, Russia has relied on older tanks stored in pre-1991 arms storage facilities. These elderly tanks are one of the primary sources of tanks that allow Russian troops to continue fighting despite massive combat losses. Russia has been withdrawing tanks, other armored vehicles, and artillery from these storage sites since late 2022. These weapons were produced from the late 1940s through the 1970s. Most of these armored vehicles and artillery were withdrawn from service decades ago. Now these weapons are being refurbished so they can return to battlefield operations. Weapons that are too decrepit to return to combat are cannibalized for spare parts for use by weapons factories as well as army weapons repair facilities close to the combat zone.

These storage facilities are being stripped of all usable combat vehicles, including those only used for spare parts. These stockpiles cannot be replenished because of the demands for combat vehicles to fight in Ukraine and the inability of the Russian weapons industries to produce enough new or reconditioned armored vehicles. If the fighting in Ukraine maintains its high level of combat intensity and heavy Russian losses continue in 2024, it will be much harder for the Russian army to maintain its military power for offensive operations in 2025. That means the conventional Russian military threat to other nations in the region is much more limited.

The shortage of Russian weapons reserves plus new weapons production means as long as Ukraine continues to receive military assistance from NATO countries, Russia will soon have fewer weapons than the Ukrainians. Most Russian forces in Ukraine are already on the defensive and Russia has been able to carry out fewer and fewer offensive operations. Russian losses in Ukraine were higher than expected because Ukraine innovated and produced thousands of relatively cheap UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) and USV (Unmanned Surface Vessels) to dominate the battlefield on land and sea. Half the Russian Black Sea Fleet has been disabled or destroyed by USVs and the surviving ships have moved to distant ports to avoid destruction.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/2024041601116.aspx

---

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 Russian Shahed drones overnight. An unspecified missile strike reported in Poltava.

Russia continues to press the attack toward Chasiv Yar.

Outlook —

With the ‘deep war’ at a lull, the crushing grind along the eastern front continues with Russia pyrrhic gains. Main focus of the fight continues to be in the Avdiivka and Bakhmut regions.

---

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas offers 20 hostages in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

- International suspense on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Israeli govt sources saying that the Rafah operation was delayed due to the Iranian attack, but that preparations are continuing, focusing first on getting non-combatants out of the town before the main attack hits.

***
Israeli war cabinet has given go ahead for strikes on Iran and it appear that Netanyahu and other leaders are refusing to receive diplomatic calls to hold fire. Strong inferences seen that Israel is trying to craft an attack that hurts Iran and likely some proxy forces but is restrained to the extent to limit Iranian escalation.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of.

Israeli air strikes, artillery and naval gunfire hits all regions of Gaza overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli Army announced that the Northern Command is conducting field exercises that include plans to respond to any possible scenarios

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Global hand wringing over the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran. Indicators suggest a plan has been approved, but may be getting one more tweak.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Hapag-Lloyd Shipping Company: The crisis in the Red Sea continues and the diversion of ships will continue

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Iran President Raisi told the Emir of Qatar that Tehran “will respond to any action against its interests” after Israel said it will respond to its drones and missiles attack.

***
Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of instigating the conflict in Gaza to undermine progress in reaching a normalization agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem.
In an interview with Israeli public broadcaster Kan News on Sunday, a source from the royal family also said that Tehran promotes terrorism and suggested that Riyadh played a role in thwarting Saturday night’s drone and missile attack against Israel by the Islamic Republic and its proxies.

Notably, a recap of the interview is published prominently on the House of Saud website, which covers the royal family.

“Iran is a nation that endorses terrorism, and the world should have curtailed it much earlier,” the Saudi royal said.

——— FORECAST ————————-

We are in a renewed period of Israel is ready to push the button. An interesting factoid popped up yesterday and that is Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day. Big parades and such. Interesting way Israel could celebrate that event would be with its counter strike. Just thinking.

Much of the world recognizes , as I, the real opportunity Israel has to hit key Iranian nuclear sites. This may be the best opportunity to do so.

As noted above, there is a lot of pressure on Israel to dial back any counter strike in an effort to prevent any further escalation in the region. Speculation is high that the war cabinet is taking that into consideration.

As with Iran, disinformation and propaganda is abundant from both sides, so just when Israel pulls the trigger won’t really be known until it starts.

I think Israel response - provided it is successful, unlikely Irans attack - could put Iran back in its box for a while and allow refocus on Hamas and eventually Hezbollah. The ineffectiveness of Iran to seriously touch Israel would be deterrent made stronger by an Israeli strike.

Iran has created a minor distraction for Hamas, who’s latest hostage release offer is trying to leverage Israel’s dealings with Iran to its advantage. 20 hostages offered for release for essentially an Israeli surrender is not going to fly. I strongly suspect that after this impending Iranian strike, we will see the wheels really get in gear for the entrance into Rafah and Hama’s last stand.

In the interim, Israel has been continuing to nail Hamas et al groups throughout the rest of Gaza as they try to regroup.

The “Islamic Resistance” influence in the fight appears to be greatly diminished over the past few weeks. Attacks in the Red Sea are way down, though the Houthi threat remains. Pro-Iran proxy militias in Syria and Iraq have largely been quiet as well, and interestingly having to deal more with ISIS than US forces.

---

Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024

---

Israeli counter strike update 1

I noted a lot of misdirection and propaganda surrounding Israel’s counter strike and timing. I believe I’ve seen indications that the strike will occur within the next 48 hours.

1 deliberations by leadership on extent and timing appear to be done.

2. This would lead to a short period of final preparations. Longer wait hazards OPSEC failure.

3 Israeli leadership shutting down external comms - opsec consideration.

4 unconfirmed rumors getting increased confirmation.

Could be a busy day tomorrow (night in Israel)

Tax day.

---

Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

Founder of the World Economic Forum (WEF) Klaus Schwab, 86, has reportedly been hospitalized and is in serious and critical condition.

Further details surrounding his hospitalization remain unconfirmed at this time.

With any luck the bugs will soon be eating him.

---

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

When Israel conducts its counter attack against Iran - expect vigorous and violent protests by the pro-hamas, pro -iran leftists.

---

Economy-

Impact from kalifornia’s minimum wage laws is tearing through the fast food sector like a plague of locust. Thousands have been laid off, thousands more have their jobs endangered, entire franchise chains have closed.

***
Oil prices fell on Monday after after Iran’s reprisal attack on Israel over the weekend.
Brent crude - a key benchmark for oil prices internationally - was lower but still trading close to $90 a barrel on Monday morning.
Prices had already risen in expectation of action by Iran, with Brent crude nearing a six-month high last week.
Analysts said the markets would be looking to see how the conflict could affect global supply chains.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68812949

OBSERVATION - Volatility is the word for the next week or so. Iran has threatened countries that supported Israel against their attack, and threatening oil traffic thru the Gulf region is one commonly used revenge tactic they’ve applied over the years.

***
Speaking of tax day, here is some of the joy biden intends to spread next year.

Biden has also made his plan clear: He wants to wallop Americans with a $5 trillion tax increase.

Biden’s written plan calls for a small business tax hike, a corporate tax hike, a capital gains and dividends tax hike, income tax hikes, energy tax hikes and even a second Death Tax on top of the first one.

Biden would increase the corporate income tax from today’s 21% to 28%. That’s a higher tax rate than communist China and France and the U.K., each at 25%.

Now add the average state corporate income tax at 4% and the average combined Biden rate would be 32%. That would be the second-highest corporate income tax in the developed world. Just below Colombia.

Households bear the burden of the corporate income tax in the form of higher prices and slower wage growth. Companies do not simply absorb the tax, it is passed on to all of us.

Biden also promises to increase the tax on Subchapter S corporations, partnerships and all “pass through” businesses, most of them small businesses, to 39.6%. These employers pay their taxes through the personal income tax rate, not the corporate rate.

Biden’s budget promises to increase the federal capital gains tax to 44.6%, the highest rate in 100 years.

And all these new Biden taxes will be collected by a supersized and unreformed IRS.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/massive-tax-increases-coming-second-biden-term

OBSERVATION - Many of us have seen how wonderful these types of ‘taxes’ affect us. They are passed through by corporations. Other taxes are designed to destroy personal wealth. biden/democrats will campaign with these under the guise of ‘fairness’ and ‘equity’, totally obfuscating the fact that it will hammer their base as well as the rest of the country already struggling to make ends meet.

---

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Today there will be a second vote to take down unconstitutional FISA
218 votes are needed to stop the bill.

We’ll see how good voter pressure has been from the weekend and how willing congress critters are to vote what their base demands.

---

Biden / Harris Watch –

Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be “within certain limits.”

OBSERVATION - I’m listing this here instead of under Israel so that it doesn’t get lost in all the other news. If this is true - it is a vile act by biden. While Biden publicly told Iran not to attack Israel. Rejected, he was still fine for them to attack Israel as long as the attack was “within certain limits.”

A president telling a hostile foreign power it is ok to attack a friendly democracy and ally. Think about it.

Now, Biden is telling Israel not to retaliate.

This is nothing other than appeasement of Iran.

---

Illegal Immigration –

The influx of illegal immigrants is causing chaos in some areas along the California coast, including some very upscale communities. Illegal immigrants are arriving in small boats and fleeing into communities on foot.

According to Brandon Tucker, director of Customs and Border Protection’s Air and Marine Operations in San Diego, there has been an “exponential increase in maritime smuggling.”

In fiscal year 2020, federal, state, and local law enforcement recorded 308 maritime smuggling events in the California area of responsibility, according to CBP. Last fiscal year, they recorded 736, a nearly 140% increase.

Air and Marine Operations uses planes equipped with radar and cameras to patrol above, looking for smugglers. Airborne agents are usually the first to find pangas, small fishing boats frequently used to smuggle migrants or drugs to the U.S., Tucker said. Then his team, as well as their Border Patrol and Coast Guard partners, can coordinate intercepting the boat at sea or on land.

Sometimes, CBP or the Coast Guard can stop them. Nearly 8,000 people have been apprehended while trying to enter the U.S. illegally through the Pacific Ocean, its coastlines or its inlets since 2020, data provided by CBP show.

https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/04/13/chaos-in-california-migrant-boat-landings-surge-along-the-coast-n3786462

OBSERVATION - Relatively small numbers when compared to sections of the southern border. But what is concerning is the apparent coordination of the landings with waiting transportation to ferry the illegals from the landing sites.

***
Guatemala’s Attorney General is investigating ongoing criminal claims that a number of American tax payer funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs) operating both inside and outside the United States are complicit in the ongoing trafficking, abuse and disappearance of children from its nation, according to an official Guatemalan letter obtained by this investigative columnist.

---

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

*****
Kerch Bridge update –

Kerch bridge has been closed due to the missile threat

---

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Region still overshadowed by new surrounding Israel and Iran

Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 Kh-59 missiles over Black Sea near Odesa. Other unspecified Russian missiles hit Dnipro city.

Russian forces continue to press Ukrainian defenses at Chasiv Yar.

Outlook —

Russia to continue to press its attacks in the Adviivka and Bakhmut regions, slowly clawing terrain away from Ukraine forces.

Ukraine has become increasingly vulnerable to missile and airstrikes due to ADA weapons shortages and this makes matters worse at the front.

---

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- Israeli govt having multiple meetings to finalize retaliatory attack plans against Iran

- New evidence that Iran suffered more damage than it inflicted on Israel.

- Hamas totally rejects latest round of hostage/cease fire proposals.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

WSJ reports, citing three Western officials, that Israel is expected to soon respond to Iran’s government’s attack on Saturday
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet favors a retaliation against Iran for its mass drone and missile attack but is divided over the timing and scale of any such response, Israeli officials said on Sunday

***
Israel’s allies have urged it to avoid any escalation, as it considers a response to Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack

***
RUMINT - 50% of the Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Israel failed to launch or crashed before reaching their destination: Three US officials to WSJ

***
Iran summons UK, France and Germany ambassadors over their condemnation of its attack on Israel

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has approved a tenfold increase in the magnitude of strikes against Israel if Netanyahu decides to escalate the situation further

***
A senior Iranian general with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike at the beginning of April had reportedly been involved in the “planning and execution” of Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

The Iranian Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces, which has ties to the “supreme leader” of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a letter on April 3 showing “mourning and appreciation” for Mohammad Reza Zahedi, according to the U.S.-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI). This letter was translated by MEMRI.

“The strategic role of the martyr Zahedi in consolidating and strengthening the resistance front, and in the planning and execution of Al-Aqsa Flood, are part of the great pride that will transform the quiet efforts of this great commander into the eternal history of the struggle against the occupation by the Zionist regime,” the Iranian group wrote, according to the MEMRI translation.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood is the name used to refer to Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack in which roughly 1,200 Israelis were left dead, and more than 200 people were taken as hostages.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/

***
Unconfirmed report from Ynet that a senior American official has stated- “Hamas rejecting the deal is just disgraceful; the offer had everything they asked for.”

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of.

Unconfirmed. In accordance with the situational assessment, IDF is calling up approximately two reserve brigades for operational activities on the Gazan front. Their calling will allow the continuous effort and readiness to defend the state of Israel and the security of civilians.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued exchanges of fire across the border. Intensity levels have dropped since Friday’s attacks.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

ABC News reports that Israeli military officials have submitted a ‘wide range of options’ to respond to Iran’s attack.

Evidence coming out that Iran did more damage to its towns and cities due to malfunctioning missiles and drones than what the did to Israel.
Per U.S. officials to WSJ.
- Roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target.
- Half were intercepted, the rest failed in flight.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Suspicious target intercepted above Eilat, falls into the Red Sea.

Unconfirmed reports of U.S. and Coalition airstrikes on Houthi positions near the city of Taizz in Southwestern Yemen.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Iraq denies agreement with Tehran on opening airspace during attack on Israel.

Iran’s foreign ministry summons ambassadors of UK, France and Germany to rebuke them over their support to Israel during Iran’s missile barrage.

The Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ayman Safadi has summoned the Chargé d’affaires of the Iranian Embassy in Amman, after threats against Jordan were presented earlier today by the Iranian Government due to the participation last night of the Royal Jordanian Air Force in the interception of Iranian one-way “suicide” drones heading towards Israel.

——— FORECAST ————————-

We are in a renewed period of Israel is ready to push the button, still evaluating options, etc. Part of the reverse psychology Iran played on Israel and the West. Even going as far are reporting that biden got Netanyahu to cancel a retaliatory strike.

Be assured, Israel will launch after they’ve carefully scrubbed their target list and gamed potential outcomes. Most likely before the week is over.

I’m seeing what also appears to be an effort to put down Israel’s defensive efforts. There are a number of MSM reports essentially stating that the US and allies did all the heavy lifting in destroying the drone waves. That Israel had very little to do with it.

Also, claims of a 50% failure rate being stated to account for much of the rest of the attack. There are many reports floating thru the interwebs showing damage to Iranian towns/villages from the attack. In some instances possibly due to failures. In other instances damage due to the first stages/booster separating and falling back to earth in Iran.

Currently, I’m of the view that there were failures, but not as extensive as the media is trying to portray, just like the fact that now we know a second Israeli airbase with hit with a few missiles and had a C-130 damaged. Propaganda on both sides to obscure or project desired views on the attack.

As Israel makes its final plans on its counter strike, Iran is saying they will retaliate ten fold. Some analysts are viewing such statements as hype and propaganda indicating that the strike Iran launched stretched its capabilities to the max and launching more may be beyond their ability. The attack was the largest drone/missile assault ever seen in the modern era - which says a lot right there. To multiply it by 10 would be a stretch.

Israeli target set discussions by various commentators and analysts continue to focus on the Iranian nuclear program. This is by far the greatest threat to Israel. Other targets include Iran’s oil industry. However, attacking this would throw the whole gulf region into chaos and likely ignite another oil war in the region - nasty consequences.

I personally think the strike on nuclear sites is the best option - allows Israel to concentrate fire on a few select targets rather than scattered over many others. The western world is concerned about Iran’s nuclear ambitions as well, so such a strike would gain some tacit approval as well. Israel’s ballistic and cruise missiles have the capability to accomplish that mission. Targets are a bit too far of a reach for the IAF as this time and it is questionable if Jordan or Iraq would permit overflights of Israeli jets.

Again, take a deep breath as news of ‘impending’ counter attacks float this week. I’ll try to catch indicators like I did the Iranian strike and report as I see them.

Regarding Gaza - the current situation seem that Israel is bulking up by bring up 2 reserve brigades. Facing a potential Hezbollah ground war, Israel wants to make sure it has the ground assets to finish Hamas off in Rafah. The timer is counting down for that operation.

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The Iranian shoe has dropped, now waiting on the Israeli shoe. Is this the start of a regional war that may blossom into a world war?

Very busy but now the fog of last night’s attack is clearing and we can see the fuller extent of the action.

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CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Additional alert to be aware now that the Iranian strike against Israel is passed. This may encourage more aggressive, pro-hamas protests today.

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Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024

US/UK/Jordanian and Saudi Arabian support given to Israel may spur an increase in Iranian supported terrorism globally. This threat will be expected to increase when Israel executes its promised counter strike.

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Economy-

MSN reports that the greatest concern Americans have is an economic collapse.

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Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

See Israel for US military intervention in Iran’s attacks on Israel.

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POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Some outspoken support by political leaders for Israel following last nights attack by Iran.

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Biden / Harris Watch –

The onset of the attack on Israel caused biden to be drug off his Delaware vacation back to the WH, where he allegedly met with military and political advisors, monitored the ongoing attack, contacted Netanyahu and finally went to bed. The WH had initially stated he would address the nation, then withdrew the announcement.

The big question is what the *&%$ is he doing of ‘vacation’ when his staff knew this attack was imminent.

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Illegal Immigration –

Iowa has joined Texas in empowering state law enforcement to do the job the Biden Administration has refused to do: arrest and remove illegal aliens.
On Wednesday, amid the unfettered surge of illegal aliens into the U.S., Republican Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds signed into law SF 2340, which mirrors a Texas law currently being held up and challenged in court by the Biden Administration.

Iowa’s new law is necessary in order to protect the safety of the state’s residents from the dangers of Pres. Joe Biden’s open-border polices, Gov. Reynolds explained in a statement:

“The Biden Administration has failed to enforce our nation’s immigration laws, putting the protection and safety of Iowans at risk. Those who come into our country illegally have broken the law, yet Biden refuses to deport them.
“This bill gives Iowa law enforcement the power to do what he is unwilling to do: enforce immigration laws already on the books.”

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Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

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Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Action in Ukraine vastly overshadowed by events in Israel.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 10/10 Shahed drones over Kharkiv region overnight. More blackout also reported.

IAEA reports that all six reactor units of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant are now in cold shutdown for the first time since late 2022 after unit 4 reached this operational state early today,

Russian is developing an enveloping attack on Chasiv Yar, attempting to advance both north and south of the city.

Outlook —

Though largely pushed off the news and OSINT streams by Iran’s attack on Israel, evidence continues to indicate that Ukraine is increasingly under great stress in maintaining its defensive posture against Russia. Losses in Ukraine artillery and air defense capabilities are giving Russian openings it has not had in the past and is increasingly exploiting them.

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ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- Iran attacked Israel with some 331 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles

- Multiple nations defended Israel.

- Iran threatens Israel if it retaliates.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas praises the Iranian attack on Israel, sees it as a “natural and deserved response to the aggression” against the Iranian consulate in Damascus. “We call on all the forces of the nation to continue to support the resistance”

Israel has reopened their airspace.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “The event is not over”
The Israeli security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu, Minister of defense Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz to decide on the Israeli response to the Iranian attack, two Israeli officials said. The Israeli war cabinet will convene tomorrow to discuss the issue

Israel calls for an emergency meeting of the UN security council over the Iranian attack

The US will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, Biden made clear to Netanyahu during their phone call tonight, a senior administration official told CNN

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of. Overnight (and during the Iranian attack) IAF struck a number of Hamas concentrations in Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army says it is shelling the launch sites in southern Lebanon after some 25 rockets were fired at the Golan Heights in coordination with the Iranian missile attack. IAF also attacked a significant site for the production of Hezbollah’s weaponry in the area of Ain Beida deep inside Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight, Iran launched a significant drone/missile attack against Israel. Most were launched from Iran, but some also came from Iraq and Yemen, according to Israeli officials. Hezbollah fired a barrage of about a couple dozen rockets as well.

Various systems were synchronized so that the faster ballistic and cruise missiles would strike at about the same time as the slower drones reached Israel.

Of the 331 (341?) missiles and drones launched by Iran (and proxies) at Israel:

- 185 out of 185 Kamikaze Drones were shot down

- 103 out of 110 (120?) Ballistic Missiles were shot down.

- 36 out of 36 Cruise Missiles were shot down

- 7 Ballistic Missile impacts have been recorded on Israeli territory

The few missiles that got thru struck the Nevatim airbase in the Negev Desert, causing minor damage. Only one reported death, that of a bedouin boy in the Negev region. The overall focus of the attack also appears to have been the Negev region, where Israel has major military bases.

Deaths from falling debris were also reported in Jordan.

A multi-national quick response joined Israel in striking most of the drone and cruise missiles before they could reach US airspace.

US warships in the eastern Med and US fighter jets were involved ,intercepting 70+ drones & at least 3 ballistic missiles.

Jordanian jets shoot down dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel - two regional security sources to Reuters

British jets took down drones and cruise missiles as well.

Saudi Arabia reportedly joined in by shooting down Iranian drone/cruise missiles too

Debris from the shoot downs, as well as failed devices, are scattered all over Iran, Iraq, Jordan and Syria this morning.

Massive explosion took place in Amir Al-Momenin ballistic missile base of the IRGC Aerospace Force near Tehran. That base launched four MRBMs at Israel. Cause of the explosion believed to have been a missfired ballistic missile. The extent of damage to the base is not know at this time.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A number of Houthi launched missiles were intercepted over the Red Sea.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordan and Lebanon have reopened their airspaces.

Iran’s IRGC said in its second statement that Tehran will give a “reciprocal and proportionate response” to any regional country that is used by Israel and the US for attacking Iran

——— FORECAST ————————-

Addition assessment from last night. Iran launched a couple billion dollars worth of drones and missiles on Israel and achieved very little in return due to the aggressive defense. US/UK/Jordanian/Saudi Arabia managed to take a pretty good chunk out of the drone/cruise missile threat, saving Israel a lot of work, but even without that help, the Iranian attack would have been seriously blunted by Israeli ADA and air force by itself.

Costs of Israel’s defense is listed in the 1.3 billion dollar range. Some scoff at the expense, but fail to realize that had those systems gotten through, the cost in lives and facilities, and infrastructure alone would be 10 times that cost.

Lets not understate the size and nature of that attack, because if it were against another opponent, that country would be a smoldering wreck this morning. This was not a great victory for Iran and now it has exposed itself to direct, retaliatory fire by Israel.

Iran’s attack also showed how dangerous a nuclear armed Iran could be.

Iran’s propaganda has switched back to a passive-aggressive posture again, in an effort to portray themselves as victims of Israeli aggression when the Israeli counter strike takes effect.

We now enter the waiting game for Israel’s counterstrike. Again, it is saving face time. Israel even prior to the attack warned Iran it would face severe consequences if it attacked Israel. Where a coalition of nations rose to defend Israel, they have stated that they will not engage in an attack on Iran - Israel will have to do that herself. And if Israel doesn’t, then it portrays weakness that will only encourage Iran and its proxies.

Israel has numerous options open to it. One likely highest on their wish list is taking out Iran’s nuclear program. While there are dozens of sites, there are only 4-5 key ones. A nuclear armed Iran is Israel’s worst nightmare and the greatest threat to its existence. iran’s attack opened wide the doors to taking that program out, or at least pushing that years down the road.

Another would be to damage its missile production capabilities and even storage. There are other military sites available too. Add to it the Iranian backed forces in Syria, Iraq and Houthi’s who also fired on Israel. Israel is well equipped with a triad of systems - land based ballistic and cruise missiles, submarine launched systems and fighter systems. Though unlikely to use them, Israel is generally understood to have nuclear weapons in that mix.

Israel has most likely already drawn up numerous strike options that in part would be executed depending on the outcome of the Iranian attack. The go - ahead for the counter strikes have been given, but the strike options are being given a final tweak based on last night and current intelligence on Iran’s defensive posture.

Iran may well have overplayed its hand in the matter and is now extremely vulnerable. They do not have the dense, well developed and experienced air defense that Israel possesses, nor the willing allies to assist in defending against an Israeli counter strike. Iran is a big country and its air defense assets are likely stretched to the max in an attempt to defend against counterstrikes. There is a remote chance that Russia airfare assets in Syria could attempt to intercept some of the counter strike force but they would not be as effective as demonstrated by the US/UK/Jordanian/SA response last night.

Longer term and more regional - Iran may well step up its harassment of vessels in the Straits of Hormuz region against anything remotely Israeli and US associated. Houthi actions have slowed way down in recent weeks, suggesting that the US/UK interdictions have had an effect, limiting its options on that front. What actions Iran can or is willing to take against Jordan and Saudi Arabia are not clear at this time. Jordan could face attacks by Iranian proxy militias in Syria, but that would likely not go well for those militias. In the past Iran has used the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia, but to resume direct conflict means taking resources necessary to keep the Red Sea under attack and diverting them to that effort. Houthi may not have the resources necessary to essentially fight a two front war.

So we have more uncertainty in the region. Israel will attack, it only needs to see just what that attack will be composed of. Iran is far, far less capable defensively than Israel, so it will hurt.

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Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024

Iran’s embassy in the UN in a statement:
“As far as we are concerned, the event is over.” If Israel makes another mistake (and responds) our response will be much harsher. This is a conflict between Iran and the unruly Israeli regime and the US should not interfere in it”

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Misc of Note –

Still on the horizon is the potential for oil disruptions by Iran as punishment for any Israeli counter strike. Probably a good idea to make sure your vehicles are topped off - and keep them topped off for the near future.

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Update 12

Israeli home front command has given a tentative all clear and citizens can leave bomb shelters.

I’ll be standing down but continue to monitor

Update 11.

Unconfirmed reports of air strikes hitting the Damascus area. Associated reports of IAF entering Syria airspace to engage drones / cruise missiles

More unconfirmed reports of more missiles being launched from Iran.

Initial damage reports.
- as many as 7 missiles hit in the Negev desert region causing minor damage to a military base.

- debris falling has caused outer damage, still being assessed.

Update 10

Videos out showing the battle in the sky’s of Israel. Some clips show what some believe to be a cruise missile striking in the Negev desert. Could also be a ballistic missile

Unconfirmed reports that Saudi Arabia has joined in shooting drones/cruise missiles down.

Unconfirmed reports of an attack on US forces at Erbil airport, Iraq.

Israeli counter strike still pending.

Continues to develop

Update 9

Unconfirmed reports that many drones have been shot down while enroute to Israel.

IDF confirming Iranian launch of ballistic missiles.

Air raid sirens all across Israel

Close in Ada active. Unconfirmed Israeli official states 99% kill rate. This would be in line with the less integrated Ada of Ukraine.

Update 8

Where we are at.

Iran has launched hundreds of sahead drones towards Israel. Houthi launched probably a mix of drones and cruise missiles. Iranian proxy forces in Iraq launched short ranged ballistic missiles and hezbollah initiated large rocket barrages.

Israel has not announced any counter strikes against Iran yet, but has launched significant strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

How large this will escalate is to be seen

Update 7.

Evidence now that Iranian backed proxies in Iraq have launched SRBM. Initially thought to be from Iran.

Hezbollah has started a large rocket barrage towards n Israel and IAF is already responding with massive air strikes

Reports of rushes on gasoline stations across many Middle East countries.

Update 6.

Iran’s state news agency reporting the launch of ballistic missiles towards Israel. Included video. Released about 25 minutes ago.

Confusion over if Houthi launched drones or cruise missiles

Biden had announced then canceled an address to the nation

Developing.